Cooper Legion

Looks strongly like the answer will be the 20th. Aladdin is 6% ahead on CGV and pacing faster. I’ll edit in a midday TLK update in about half an hour. I think it’ll add about 1.4-1.8x the 9:20-14:20 sales. 9:20-14:20 was 76k-> add 106-138 -> final CGV 361-393 ->admits 740-820 Same day sales have been great, PSm will be a lot better than I feared

Clubs are supposed to be bold Yeah, for a single film. I do consider 2020 a lost cause, I was actually going to make it one or fewer miss years but I remember that 2020 was in the 2020s right before posting. Basically my logic is something like: 2020 RIP 2021 enough marvel sequels to get there 2022 enough marvel sequels to get there 2023 Avengers+random 2024+ #blessInflation

I agree, just wanted to hedge my bets with a safe ceiling.

There will be 10 years in the 2020s, 2020-2029. The club would be that 8 or more of those years have 2 or more 200M+ OWs.

This is pretty real. 185M would be a huge opening weekend, #9 all-time... but it’s also less than 20% above an OD that we had just 3 months ago. It was surreal. I think it mauled people’s sense of proportions and they’re still recovering to some degree.

I mean, it’ll be less than 2/3rds of #1. It’s not like a 1.4 vs 1.5 “#2 of the year” situation.

I bet two or fewer years in the 2020s miss having multiple 200M+ OWs. @mods, is that something a club could be made for? Obviously the scope is much larger than one year in the future but it isn’t about any particular year and would start being relevant in 5 months.

200M OW is something that should (and will) happen every once in a while. Welcome to 2019. That said, 186 or whatever instead of 200 is not really a big difference. Feels big due to human cultural significance of round number,s but it’s just a 7% difference. Same as 122 vs 131 or whatnot.

Less than 600=“Disney flop” I mean, they did it 5 times in last year and a half, and twice in next half year Engaging serious mode, true that. I was thinking 175-210ish, got a bit excited this morning, now things return to normal. It’ll probably beat BATB to be the highest LA remake DOM and WW, great performance and rolling in $$$

What weekend will TLK dip below Aladdin? Wanna say 5, but 6 is probably more realistic.

It’s unlikely. Would need a great true IM or to beat Rth’s upper end from a nearly East Coast midnight number.

On the low end could miss Civil War and leave MCU with top 6/10

I’ll just repeat what I mentioned on reddit about that little factoid: I’d like to offer two words of warning to that. One, Saturday (and then Sunday) numbers are related to true Friday more than the artificial Thursday+Friday “opening day.” Two, summer internal multipliers are markedly lower since Friday’s can be much bigger. For 200 we’ll need a 177M true FSS. The true F:True FSS multipliers of the big summer break OWs are: JW 190.3/63.45=3.0x I2 164.2/52.76=3.11x DH2 125.7/47.57=2.64x TDKR 130.9/45.15=2.90x TDK 139.9/48.66=2.88x JW:FK 132.7/43.27=3.07x DH2 was infamously frontloaded, I’m sure TLk will beat that handily. I2’s internal multiplier is inflated by Father’s Day. If you give TLK the next best, JWFK’s x3.07, then it would need a 57.65 true Friday to hit 200. If Rth’s middle of the range hits dead on, 200 would be more like a 50/50 proposition.

It can be tough to extrapolate huge numbers at 9AM. Just 2.4 PSm is very unusual for the genre. People should try it themself and I think they’d understand a lot better. With Asgardians in agreement at 11PM East Coast, day seems fairly clear. Will be about 50/50 whether this thing can crack 200 I think.

Damn, frontloaded. PS heavy. 57M true Friday, miss 200M. 80s Audience score, kids hate it, flop with just 1.3B

The only reason to put stock in a non-Charlie number is if: 1) It's Rth number 2) it’s at least 4 hours more recent Neither of those conditions are met atm.

Why pay attention to HWR and Deadline? We have the wisdom of Asgard already.

This is an issue for eating sting admissions, but I don’t see how it applies to trying to account for ticket price inflation. Movies with more 3D share made more money.

Highest OWs: 1 Avengers: Endgame BV $357,115,007 41.9% 4,662 $76,601 $853,017,193 4/26/2019 2 Avengers: Infinity War BV $257,698,183 38.0% 4,474 $57,599 $678,815,482 4/27/2018 3 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $247,966,675 26.5% 4,134 $59,982 $936,662,225 12/18/2015 4 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $220,009,584 35.5% 4,232 $51,987 $620,181,382 12/15/2017 5 Jurassic World Uni. $208,806,270 32.0% 4,274 $48,855 $652,270,625 6/12/2015 Easy top 5 for TLK. Adjusted: 1 Avengers: Endgame BV $361,078,500 41.9% 4,662 $77,451 $862,484,600 4/26/2019 2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $259,652,500 26.4% 4,134 $62,809 $984,928,500 12/18/2015 3 Avengers: Infinity War BV $250,280,400 37.9% 4,474 $55,941 $659,743,800 4/27/2018 4 Marvel's The Avengers BV $232,729,900 33.2% 4,349 $53,513 $700,387,900 5/4/2012 5 Jurassic World Uni. $230,572,700 32.0% 4,274 $53,948 $720,138,200 6/12/2015 6 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $218,332,000 35.5% 4,232 $51,591 $615,785,700 12/15/2017 7 Avengers: Age of Ultron BV $202,378,600 41.5% 4,276 $47,329 $487,630,200 5/1/2015 Top 5 may be tough. Unadjusted Disney will move up to 12 of top 13 OWs. MCU down to 5/10, 7/13.

Is there some kind of holiday? Because if it beat IW's OD regular seems like we might get another $R200

I've been spoiled by the one-two-three-four punch of Endgame, Parasite, Aladdin, FFH doing like 11M+ average. TLK doing objectively solid numbers here but they just feel so small to me 😛

8 days ahead a ya 😉

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It comes out on the same weekend as TLK, and the holdovers that weekend should also be bigger than these two!

You know what they say Porthos: When life gives you Vemons, make Vemonade