Cooper Legion

Real OW for puss is dec 30, this is just 9 day EA duh. Tenet style.

Obi Wan Kenobi Death GIFfrom Obi Wan Kenobi GIFs

You WON’T BELIEVE this prophet’s prediction for Puss in Boots 2nd weekend!

From my perspective, it’s the audience who are evil

It all adds up folks, they are going to adjust Friday to 14.5

People are allergic to quality

KOBIS: 484k CGV start: 74k est CGV end: 117k est day: 240k est KOBIS eod: 450k

People have been asleep/busy? I tried to get something going, but no dice.

Early Sunday sneak peek:

Measures of central tendency rule everything around me

Eh, it’s fine. Will end in the expected zone, still unprecedented for this late in a run, super weird huge. To some extent, but jury still out on how much.

Hmm, yeah, maybe my dyslexia kicking in. Perhaps it was supposed to be 15.4

If it does come in high question will be whether rest of movies out had typical Eves (A2 showing specific legs) or rest also had good holds (combo of lessened storm impact and dampened holiday dynamics post pandemic).

Some uncertainty with regional dynamics around eve/weather, but based on numbers I am seeing around 14.5 for Sat. Strong hold 👍

By the way, think I have commented before on how closely BP2 has been running to FB1 since nov 19 (fb1 opening sat, BP2 2nd wknd sat). Here’s a chart with the ratio of their trailing 7days (BP2 7D/FB1 7D): You can see it was hit more by Ava than FB1 was by RO, but then started to recover. The dip at the very end is storm impact on th/fri, which will keep it within the remarkable tight bounds of 95%-107% for a while longer. Adding 105% of FB1 rest of run would be ~23M to total at ~446.5 but I would expect the ratio to widen in January. Likely heading between TDKR and AoU for 8th on the (nominal) CBM ranking.

Midday update: maybe 337k eod CGV for ~760k overall admit based on new sat actuals

Yeah I mean gross is certainly better for “big number fun.” I pay attention to both (😁) just saying that it’s hard to see nominal as a more meaningful comparison for how well a movie did across eras

In fact we can make this much more concrete. Current atp is ~11, so to replicate the 10x atp ratio we should go back to 1966, when atp was just $1.1. Some top movies of 1966 were: The Bible 35M Hawaii 34.5M Who’s afraid of Virginia wolf? 34M The Sand Pebbles 30M A man for all seasons 28M All vastly bigger performances than stuff like Morbius, Halloween Ends, Dog, or Jackass forever in the 70-55M (2x) nominal zone (though ironically several of those supposedly lost money thanks to over budgeting — a concern in any era).

What this elides is that Movie A is implicitly coming out in a time period where $1000 is worth much less than $500 was in the time period that Movie B came out. The producers behind Movie B are going to be much happier.

Man it is almost like that is not how most people experience either of these examples

Probably because we: A)don’t have a stagflationary environment (and are trending even farther from one, not towards one) and B ) if we did it would yield better box office results all around

They don’t even go to Caltech, that 2nd tier option is like 500 miles away from the One True California Rivalry

To an extent you can just say "anything too far away is incomparable" or at the very least "anything too far away requires very complicated and careful analysis, lemme go spend a month on my deep learning model." But for whatever problems "simple admit compare, lol" has I think it at least pretty clearly outperforms "simple nominal USD compare, lol" in terms of gauging film strength from far away eras.