Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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@RthMav gotta get in on this historic thread before it closes 😘
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Missed DS2 by less than 1M apparently
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My initial pure numbers forecast was for a 1.69 CGV PSm but my gut just can’t believe it
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In 50 years everyone will have come around to PT>OT>>ST
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These are all fair I was just too lazy for more than two adjectives 😛
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I guess another way to say this would be that for me: PT is tactically bad but strategically good OT is tactically good but strategically bad ST is tactically and strategically bad
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OT story is boring just like the ST. Still way better than the ST because of plot execution, not being a rehash, better characters but it doesn’t really interest me in terms of themes and setting like the PT
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Yeah. I do it like once every other month and get tired of it after a few minutes. Then time passes and I’m not as tired of it anymore. Pretty normal human behavior I think.
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More juice for Avatar 2: schools start Christmas breaks on Monday per Comscore, with 41% K-12 off and 77% colleges. That jumps to 82% K-12 and 94% colleges off by Friday.
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CGV start flat at 72k. Guess I will forecast 1.75 PSm for 125k eod/250k overall day (235-265) @Stewart did the autologger capture 23:20 for mon?
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So ~61.9 post previews off 13.2 FSS. 4.7x multi, 3.7x OW added. After looking more closely I remain happy with my off the cuff 54-62. We’ll see how it develops.
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Yes. The Disney trilogy was awful and the worst, whereas the prequel trilogy was great and the best. But I thought that before the ST came out iirc.
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So ~66.5 gbp finish?
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Dude we get it. You can stop saying this. Each additional day we wait we’ll get more accurate predictions, but waiting 15+ days to talk about final totals is boring as shit. Most of the fun of a BO forum like this is trying to predict off present info, not waiting a long time to predict until almost all the uncertainty is gone.
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Was RO Fri open with no previews? If not, what was preFSS gross?
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Indeed. And it’s not like this is totally uncharted territory for us either: Look at Batman. Very long, plf skewing, no final week explosion, ~8x (7.4 from true th) IM. Weekday heavy. Look at NTTD. Very long, weak final week, ~8 (8.8) IM. Weekday heavy. Look at Dune. Long, extremely plf skewing, weak final week, 8x IM. Weekday heavy. These were some of the best performing comps iirc ( @Porthos may be able to comment here as well).
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It’s going to be tough to compare since there’s a good chunk of school of this week US but iirc it’s a pretty normal schoolday week still in SK.
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Also we should note that Avatar was quite presale heavy and basically played in the CBM range both in terms of day 1 to d-1 trajectory and internal multi. I realize there is a huge prior on “obviously this is a film that casual GA will just walk up to” but that is not remotely what we’ve actually seen happen (so far).
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Okay, but the upshot of the argument your making is that RO should be less leg/more frontloaded/steeper drops, which makes a hypothetical 50% drop for A2… worse. It backs up my point. Maybe that’s your intention, but if so I am misreading — it seems like you’re trying to imply the exact opposite of the actual takeaway.
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Looks like a $1M under bat joke would be the fav right now
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The 1 hr longer thing could hurt weekdays, but doesn’t seem to be doing so in OS markets so far. What does being SW have to do with it
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More seriously, I will go for 54-62
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Most things things that should be done for this have ended up not being done so I will take this as under 70
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The comparison to RO is exactly what I mean — I think people are hoping to beat RO legs pretty decisively after this weak start. Monday is just one data point, but holding at 50 instead of 46.7 is just 7% better. Probably not what you’re looking for off a movie which is playing plf heavy/likely weekday heavy.
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Sub 50% sort of the base case right? =50% would be a bad sign for legs.
