Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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The reason they put “from the people who brought you [X movie you liked]” instead of “from studio so and so” is because nobody knows or particularly cares about studio so and so directly. And even then I bet it has almost no impact. People go to see a movie based on the premise or promos looking interesting/good to them and later on buzz from people (reviewers and then GA WOM) who’ve seen it. Take any trailer and replace the studio logo and association with past liked movies with some pretty much any other and you’ll get basically identical performance. Disney/Pixar are exceptions so waht becasue of the long history and quality creating their own kind of cultural aspect but even then something like Frozen or Encanto or Toy Story 1 or Inside Out 1 would have been similar hits if they were blue sky or dream works or illumination or whatever small ball animation studio you please — the movie itself is what audiences liked, followed by the trailer and clips that are a function of the movie itself rather than the studio, and that’s what drives the business
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If it was the same movie just produced from blue sky It would have grossed like 99% the same. Only weirdos like us even know what animation studio any nonPixar/WDAS is from
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28 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:
Hmm, with +9.5 on Friday, how can we be sure that this will be above +30?
Tone got about 9.5 last week on Friday.
TOne had a 6M Friday…
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4 hours ago, AniNate said:
Why are you being antagonistic about this? It was an aspiration, not an expectation. It had been supported by some of the more optimistic preview comps which yes, ultimately did turn out to be too optimistic. Perhaps it was too much to hope an ecstatic critical reception would bring back a pre-covid level audience for a new IP on opening weekend, but we had no way to know that for sure until the numbers actually bared it out.
I do think a "less than half" box office take would have been reasonably disappointing in these circumstances ofc, especially coming off new IPs that did manage more than that like Elemental and IF.
Furthermore many many of their past works have sold as many tickets OW as this needed for $50M. Wouldn’t have been particularly remarkable in the scope of the studio history or anything.
That said it looks like high 30s with some storm and scheduling damage, quite a fine outcome
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Looks like 653.0 barring any double features
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Yday was 1.25 so 2 would be only +60, #notarecord
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Show has been good so far, as expected. Getting acceptable chatter/reception, key will be holding quality and building buzz in midseason
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Spectacular hold for dpw. May do like 1.4M weeks here into ~3M wknd, setting up low-mid 640s finish
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47 minutes ago, cinema pal said:
No, he has not. The fingers are just bent. His little finger goes out of frame and then we see its tip.
Those AI talks are silly
this is correct, but awkward that there’s a relatively persistent visual illusion of having 6 fingers 🤣
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And with that, DPW move into 2nd place among the MCU for weekend top 5s:
NWH 13
DPW 9
BP1, BP2 8
Also a little check up on the TA-JW streak of DOM finishes:
Spoiler
Still no two consecutive wknds with the same winner yet, though that is about to come to an end this weekend unless they randomly expand DPW for zero reason 😛
Still, relatively confident that there is no other group of 5 in a row DOM grossers with this property. Neat!
In fact the wknd winners are even more evenly distributed than that with one for JW and 2 each for DPW, TA, Barbie, and IO2
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220M week, +10%. Holiday? In any case now aiming for perhaps 5.6ish or another ~3.5M USD relative to sun cume
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2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:
Sorry about that. 😜
No no no, my bad
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13 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Why did you underline the 40-50M OW, 85-110M DOM but not the 165-200M WW
I didn’t do anything but quote your comment exactly as it was 😛
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41 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
prediction for Cap 4(40-50/85-110/165-200)
Sorry, lmao wut. Somebody’s about to lose prophet status 👀
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1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:
$220M would be less than one half of GOTG 1 adjusted (good comp because that was also a group of D-list characters)
Gotg1 was an extremely good movie at a time when the franchise was doing extremely well. Doing like 65% of admits would be awesome but I think the median case has to be lower
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Just now, HummingLemon496 said:
Not terrible but very blegh
Yeah that would be weak but we’re still in recovery mode I think. Would be better to do 40l with an A than 600 with a B+
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1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:
What is @Cooper Legion prediction DOM/OW/WW?
Eh, maybe 80/220/500. A lot will depend on the quality of BNW and itself
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4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:
Oh for fuck sake.
If this continues the opening at #2 curse that means one of two things:
miserably bad weekend overall
spectacular for v3
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Tbf it is quite rare to get new top 10 members and even more so to have uncertainty about whether we will get one or not as late as wknd 15 of a movies run. Makes sense for bo nerds to continue talking about-- just, you know, preferably coolheadedly
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Just now, HummingLemon496 said:
If IO2 doesn't pass $653,406,625 then JW can stay in the top 10 until freaking Doomsday
Sure, decent chance. Maybe fire and ash beats it though. And if IO2 does beat it, it will be 11th for that time period instead of 10th. Doesn’t really matter either way. Just saying as an analytical matter it could still go either way. Hyperactive swings instead of patience isn’t helpful to anyone 😛
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44 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
It's coming out to Disney+ September 25th, it's not passing $653,406,625.
And even if we go with the "but original release" cope, then Jurassic World is still at #10 because Titanic is only ahead of JW because it cheated
Dude, you’re writing off IO2 way too prematurely and decisively. Just chill. We’ll see in a month or two
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I think it’s very likely that IO2 will still pass JW if you look at the late runs of e.g. I2, TS4, Dory. Probably add 400k-1M ish without any particularly strong push, remaining in a small number of theaters til early Dec. If it’s like 100k short when Moana is coming out it’s breeze to attach a little
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14 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
The most impressive part about Deadpool's $1.345B total ($640M DOM + $705M OS) is how little is coming from China.
The WW-China-Russia number is going to be around $1.290B.
On 1/17/2022 at 8:01 AM, MG10 said:I created this thread because I noticed that in addition to being able to easily know the gross of a film excluding USA and Canada (overseas/international gross), we also have a thread dedicated to the highest grossing movies excluding USA and China, but not one excluding China only
I think it makes sense also because it isn't only a very big market, at this point equal to the US, but it has grown very quickly so even "recent" films from just 10 years ago couldn't benefit from this market as much as those released more recently, making comparisons much more difficult. Here is the list:
1) Avatar: $2.660 Billion
2) Avengers: Endgame: $2.168 Billion
3) Titanic: $2.104 Billion
4) Avatar: The Way of Water: $2.074 Billion
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens: $1.944 Billion
6) Spider Man: No Way Home: $1.917 Billion
7) Avengers: Infinity War: $1.678 Billion
8)Inside Out 2: $1.635 Billion
9) The Lion King: $1.537 Billion
10) Top Gun Maverick: $1.493 Billion
11) Jurassic World: $1.442 Billion
12) The Avengers: $1.433 Billion
13) Barbie: $1.410 Billion
14) Super Mario Bros: $1.337 Billion
15) Frozen II: $1.328 Billion
16) Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $1.290 Billion
17) Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows 2: $1.281 Billion
18) Deadpool & Wolverine: $1.1247 Billion
19) Black Panther: $1.242 Billion
20) Frozen: $1.233 Billion
21) The Incredibles 2: $1.192 Billion
22) Beauty and the Beast: $1.178 Billion
23) The Avengers: Age Of Ultron: $1.163 Billion
24) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: $1.132 Billion
25) Furious 7: $1.124 Billion
26) Iron-Man 3: $1.094 Billion
27) Minions: $1.091 Billion
28) Joker: $1.074 Billion
29) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: $1.066 Billion
30) Toy Story 3: $1.057 Billion
31) Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker: $1.054 Billion
32) Skyfall: $1.049 Billion
33) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: $1.048 Billion
34) Toy Story 4: $1.044 Billion
35) The Dark Knight Rises: $1.028 Billion
36) Alice in Wonderland: $1.025 Billion
37) Star Wars: The Phantom Menace: $1.023 Billion
38) The Dark Knight: $1.005 Billion
17th WW-C vs 19th WW overall, pretty similar. Looks like it will be one place over DH2 on both lists funny enough
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42 minutes ago, DAJK said:
If anyone wants reason to be optimistic about the box office…
Next Monday is a federal holiday in Canada (it’s new, only the last few years). But if the past few years have been any indicator, Sunday drop and Monday hold for pretty much all movies, but especially family-targeted movies (aka Wild Robot, and probably to an extent TOne) will be very, very strong here. Maybe not enough to move the needle a ton, but definitely will be a factor.
For the curious (this will be Monday of next week, 9 days out rather than 2):
2021 Thursday v2 previews, can’t make out an effect since everything drops from the large previews https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2021/09/30
2022 Friday no detectable effect imo but hard to tell on Fridays https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2022/09/30
2023 Saturday same deal https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2023/09/30
so this will be the first detectable effect
DPW will also be inflated ~25% or so next Wednesday (4 days not 11)
Disney+ MCU: Agatha: Coven of Chaos | Kathryn Hahn will return
in Streaming, TV Series, & VOD Movies
Posted
Underwhelming debit makes a lot of sense with how D+ shows have been. WV is still the best and this is tapping into some nostalgia for that, I think it will grow/hold stronger than usual and put up solid final viewership numbers especially compared to budget.
but that will all depend on remaining good so no guarantees of course