Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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62M week (-~42%)
40% drops from here would add 93 for 690M. May beat that by a bit, still looking 700ish (+650ish)
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10 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
So which Cooper shall I trust?
Wait are you saying it's gonna be 655-660 or are you saying that the "or so" part implies it can go slightly higher?
I mean something like 661 I’d be willing fudge into the “or so” but I would be pretty surprised if it was closer to 665 than 660. That said at this point a lot depends on how much of a Labor Day expansion it gets which is always tricky to know for sure.
It should be ~647M heading into Fri of Labor Day weekend and I’d expect ~10-12 after that looking at I2
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7 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Nah more like 665
Nah more like 655-660 or so
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8 hours ago, emoviefan said:
Next weekend could be interesting. Unless Romulus has a better hold than it seems like it will right now or either the Crow or Blink Twice really surprise, nothing will do over 20 m. But it should still be a solid weekend overall with how well movies have been holding. The real question is can DP and W retake number one. It has taken it's PLF hit and obv has way more GA/Casual appeal than Romulus. I could see it doing in the 17-20 range and Romulus doing the same. Gonna be interesting.
Decent chance DPW can crack 20. Could be close #1 race yeah
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8 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:
For 714M be considered a big hit, the budget have to be grounded as well
Didn’t the next Captain cost 375M? It have to do a billion minimum.
When studios bring their tentpole budgets back to 150-170M, then people will accept 600-700M as big hits.
Budgets can’t return to 2014 levels in nominal. 160M budget from 2014 is equivalent of 210M now from inflation.
Movies doing approx real performance of TWS would be looked at as big hits (unless they were event movies finaling there only because of bad receptions+legs) but what people have to realize is that matching TWS performance would be ~350 DOM low 600s OS for mid 900s. Doing low 700s isn’t similar to TWS it’s quite a bit worse. A bit better than Cap1 but closer to that than Cap2…
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9 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:
I’m not even saying $29m, but if Deadpool and Wolverine gets anywhere close to $28.5m it would be crazy compared with Jurassic World’s 4th weekend. That was during July 4th weekend, this is a random ass weekend.
I mean it’s extremely likely to beat JW 4th weekend
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On 8/12/2024 at 5:07 PM, Cooper Legion said:
Continuing 30% drops would add ~51M for 997M, Japan may be able to do 33+, maybe bump up to 660+1030 though could always have one steeper drop sometime and finish a bit lower — even 650+985+25 does the trick for TLK though, pretty much done and dusted
INSIDE OUT II overseas weekend grosses
140.0M | weekend 1
167.8M | weekend 2 [372.6M] |232.6M week
108.0M | weekend 3 [545.5M] | 172.9M week (-25%)
080.9M | weekend 4 [685.7M] | 140.2M week (-20%)
049.6M | weekend 5 [776.9M] | 91.2M week (-35%)
036.5M | weekend 6 [849.2M] | 72.3M week (-21%)
023.4M | weekend 7 [893.0M] | 43.8M week (-39%)
929.3 | OS-J 924.3 | 30.7M week (-30%)
958.1M | OS-J 946 | 21.7M week (-29.3%)
983.8M | OS-J 963M* | 17M week (-22%)*using 21.3M for Japan and est 0.5M rise for actuals
30% drops would take OS-J to just over 1B. Say 1000-1015 most likely. Japan now thinking ~35-40M, for OS just shy of 1.05B. DOM still looking 655-660 or so, so I would take the over on 1.7 by a hair but under 2xIO1
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12 hours ago, Lory88 said:
It's incredible that in the same summer there are even two films with 650 million domestic. I don't think anyone expected that. So crazy.
Past summers with two big movies:
2018 — IW (if you count it)+I2 around 825M+740M adjusted
2015 — JW+AoU ~860+605 adjusted
2012 — TA+TDKR ~870+625 adjusted
2004 — Shrek 2+SM2 ~ 785+670M adjusted
1999 — TPM+Sixth Sense ~940+640M adjusted (first runs)
1996 — Ind Day+Twister ~770M+605M adjusted
However, if you look at just meteorological summer (June+July+august) rather than BO summer season, literally none of those qualify. For that you have to go all the way back to the massive twin smashes of 1994 — The Lion King, releasing wide on Jun 24, made a massive ~845M adjusted first run, followed a scant two weeks later by Forrest Gump on Jul 8th with a staggering ~895M adjusted
So we’re roughly running back the summer of 30 years ago but ~25% smaller-
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4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:
Is that below Alien Covenant adjusted?
Yeah just barely
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I agree that it’s playing much closer to pg-13 CBMs than something like Oppy btw
US R rating is not that restrictive in reality unlike some other territories for DPW — people can take their 11 year old kids or little siblings or whatever if they want and a decent chunk of business is coming from under 18s. Not huge but it’s not a huge chunk for pg-13s either at the end of the day especially being an older franchise now with fans who’ve aged
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4 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:
Movie of the year for a reason.
This is what cinema was made for.
I mean it will lose by 20% WW and probably lose DOM as well (by like 1-3%), what about that makes for “movie of the year”
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13 hours ago, thajdikt said:
600M? 600M is locked. It lost PFL’s screens. Hardly a surprising drop. Only question is over under Barbie. I’m taking under for now.
Easy over
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40m instead of 50 is same % as 160 instead of 200. It’s not a disaster or anything but there was plenty of reasonable info to base somewhat higher hopes on
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Tbf clubs are not exactly supposed to be realistic
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20 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
Yeah, Alien: Covenant fell 70% weekend two and having to lose all its PLF screens to Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales certainly didn't help it hold better.
For me, I'm just hoping that $100M domestically is still attainable even if it comes below $45M this weekend. I say it still is, but it can't drop 70% next weekend.
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18 // 73 with 31 wk, ezpz
More pessimistic:
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16 // 68 with 28 wk, should still hit 100 with Labor Day
Maybe like 110-125ish?
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2nd weekend true fss drops:
Prometheus -56%
Covenant -67%
Covenant got slammed by competition, with better reception and little competition here maybe can pull like -50% for ~18M. Close race for #1
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20 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
So the highest grossing G, PG, PG-13, and R-rated movies officially all belong to Disney. That’s kinda scary to think about…
NC-17 when
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35 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:
Nearly locked and ~50/50 respectively
Lol, flipped the order on these. Think it should be pretty clear, but just in case:
IO2 nearly locked
dpw ~50/50
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1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Are Deadpool and Inside Out still facing to pass Jurassic World?
Nearly locked and ~50/50 respectively
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Endgame doing 625 would have been a pretty big underperformance. Probably was a small one for TLJ, would be for Secret Wars. That’s kind of it yea, still a big big milestone to hit — although it is becoming more of one or two a year than one every few years:
2024 — 2
2023 — 1
2022 — 2
2021 — 1
2019 — 1
2018 — 3
2017 — 1
2016 — 0
2015 — 2
2014 — 0
2013 — 0
2012 — 1
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Jurassic World looking very very likely to fall WW to my eyes. Japan may be able to push into 1.7s if rest of world keeps holding well
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Still tracking for about 640-665M, should gross roughly 31-36M on Th-Sun to stay on course
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So how high might we end up here? Usually I can make pretty good est myself but Japan is one of the hardest markets for that with so much legs/reception/holidays/competition mattering. 6B possible? 7?
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Engaging spin mode: Any schmuck can hit 1B with a truly great movie but it takes a truly impressive franchise to hit 1B with a movie like Dominion
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Weekend thread August 16th-18th Alien Romulus $6.5m previews
in Numbers and Data
Posted
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