Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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Deadpool in fact won the day, 1.280 over 1.272
Last weekday over 1M for dpw in all likelihood, but also first day in a long time that significantly beats my expectations. If it hold up to Beetlejuice okay maybe 645+ could be possible again
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With summer wrapped up, a little random check in on where our still playing summer movies look to finish:
IO2 655M
DPW 640M
DM4 365M
Twisters 275M
It ends with us 150M
Alien 105M
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49 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Well I'm saying $600M+ for Moana 2 because it's actually a challenge, if I were to say for example $600M+ DOM for Zootopia 2, that would be way too easy
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On 8/26/2024 at 4:45 PM, Cooper Legion said:
INSIDE OUT II overseas weekend grosses
140.0M | weekend 1
167.8M | weekend 2 [372.6M] |232.6M week
108.0M | weekend 3 [545.5M] | 172.9M week (-25%)
080.9M | weekend 4 [685.7M] | 140.2M week (-20%)
049.6M | weekend 5 [776.9M] | 91.2M week (-35%)
036.5M | weekend 6 [849.2M] | 72.3M week (-21%)
023.4M | weekend 7 [893.0M] | 43.8M week (-39%)
929.3 | OS-J 924.3 | 30.7M week (-30%)
958.1M | OS-J 946 | 21.7M week (-29.3%)
985.1M | OS-J 964.2 | 18.2M week (-16%)1003.3 | OS-J 977.2 | 13M week (-28.5%)
1016 | OS-J 986.2 | 9M week (-31%)
Continuing 30% drops would add 30M for ~1005-1010 OS-J. Essentially all still on track for last week's nums
Still 1005-1010 +40ish. 655+1045, would say 1.7 ~50/50
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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:
Everyone would’ve gone “yeah that’s possible”. Barbie coming anywhere close to a Deadpool and Wolverine movie is more ludicrous if anything
Lol, cmon man. It would have seemed like a duh moment before either came out, but people would have found it absurd after Barbie. To suggest otherwise is pure revisionism, we have lots of examples of what people were thinking at the time in the movie thread and various clubs
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26 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
NO
We must pass Jurassic World
655 DOM
It's dead mate
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~645+695 perhaps
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IW
BP
AEG
IO2
I2
TA
NWH
Avatar
TFA
DWP
TLJ
Haven’t seen the rest.
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2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Are we sure DPW is still passing Barbie DOM?
Yes. It’s still looking like 640-655
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2 hours ago, Ryan C said:
Remember when people thought that after Barbie (which is still based on an IP!) that audiences wanted to see more original movies? Those takes are now look gonna look hilarious after Inside Out 2 and potentially Deadpool and Wolverine make slighly more money domestically than Barbie.
They were always hilarious tbf
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19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
So JW was made to be over $650M. Like naturally it would have just died at $645M.
Well labor expansion boost quite typical for huge May/June movies right. Just looking at my pic you’d think TA end around 618
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9 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:
A funny thing about comparing these 5 movies (which will be 5 in a row in DOM finish) is that each weekend has a different winner:
OW DPW 211M
2nd wknd JW 106M
3rd IO2 57M
4th TA 36M
5th Barbie 21M
6th likely wrap back to DPW ~16M
I would be curious if any other trivia hunters out there can find another example of this — 5 movies 5 in a row on DOM total, where each of the first 5 weekends was won by a different one of the movies. I think it’s actually a very very very difficult criteria!
I think sometimes @TalismanRing has been good at hunting stuff of this nature and some other people who I’m embarrassing forgetting atm 😅
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3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Serious question, why would DPW post labor day trail GOTG 1 despite basically matching it so far? Is it because of BeetleJuice?
Partially competition but partially just that Gotg1’s late legs were kah-razy and DPW has been dropping against it recently. For instance DPW’s weekly (last days) gross was at 121% of gotg1’s (calendar adjusted) at the end of DPW’s 3rd week. Dropped to 114% 4th week, 106% 5th week, and will be ~95% by Mon using my ests. Probably about 70-85% for post Mon — will decline from 95% to under 50% probably by the time Joker 2 hits, but the earlier period is where more of the money is made so it’s weighted higher
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A funny thing about comparing these 5 movies (which will be 5 in a row in DOM finish) is that each weekend has a different winner:
OW DPW 211M
2nd wknd JW 106M
3rd IO2 57M
4th TA 36M
5th Barbie 21M
6th likely wrap back to DPW ~16M
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2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
NO
It will pass JW, trust the GOTG '14 process
Place you dreams in the sat bump and next wknd hold I guess 😛
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Yeah thinking it will trail JW ~7M through Mon and end up around 7M behind in the end
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I am thinking low-mid 640s as most likely case, but it's worth noting there are a lot of other things to give up some screens for Beetlejuice and dpw really doesn't need that many. If you look at the history of weekend where something opens to ~125M in 2024 dollars, the previous wknd #1 isn't necessarily too impacted.
It'll be a big % drop just since it's coming off the inflated labor wknd, but not necessarily going to get bodied.
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Something like 3.8 6.3 6.6 5.3 could be quite reasonable
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4 minutes ago, wattage said:
Putting a movie in more theaters doesn't really mean it'll have more success it could just mean a ton of empty theaters
Bingo
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2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
I have DPW at 608 by EOD Monday. Following GOTG 1 from there gets us ~660M
Does this sound right? @Cooper Legion
I have it at 606.x, but it's true that if it gets to 608 then following gotg would be 660 (wouldn't follow gotg though).
Fwiw @keysersoze123 DPW's fri/th increases have been higher than gotg1's for last weekend, and the weekend before that (and the weekend before that). That's due to the 1 week offset in the runs in part -- I do expect the Fri jump to be weaker this weekend, but probably not by much
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R rating doesn’t particularly hurt legs
200+ OW doesn’t particularly help legs
Thank you for coming to my Ted talk
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1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:
You really think that Kang Dynasty would've been Avengers level threat in itself.
They had Avengers from Wallmart and a failed Villain. Kang Dynasty was heading towards a trainwreck. Only after bringing back RDJ & banking on Russos they have been able to make people interested.
I didn’t say anything about Kang Dynasty. Only 4 avengers movies exist, their strength is what it is. If there is some new weaker state of affairs someday we will adjust what it means to be on avengers level, but you can’t downgrade based on movies that don’t exist
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59 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
GOTG 1 dropped <1%
That’s pretty close to the average labor wknd drop for MCU but almost every other movie was waaaaaay smaller by then and some even received a degree of expansion. I don’t think +5% would be like, completely shocking, but neither would -22 or something. Weekdays may help provide some clue— looking for about 1.8 Mon, but so far a common patterns has been to meet Monday targets but then miss on Wed/Th
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2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Avengers admissions
A1: 65M
A2: 47MA3: 65M
A4: 83.5M
63.8 geomean, 57.4 to be within 10% of geomean. BP1 and NWH the only MCU nonavengers to be in that tier dom, just nwh WW. Deadpool in the next tier down, which is insanely impressive still, just no need to get carried away like main comment I responded too 😛
Inside Out 2 | June 14, 2024 | Biggest animated movie of all time! We aren’t Pixover but Pixulling Back!
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Can’t really adjust WW anyway. TLK should be higher in admits though iirc