Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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8 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
R-Rated Deadpool + Wolverine is going to make like 30M less than PG-13 Infinity War domestically
Sure, domestically it almost got within 20% of IW admits and beating AoU by ~5%. A great performance… still not really close to avengers level (those are the two worst avengers performances)
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1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:
The panic at the initial reviews/reactions is absolutely hilarious now. Over 3x legs off a $211M OW is fucking crazy, it's pretty clear that A was insanely close to an A+
FWIW I think this summer has cemented that movies are having better legs now than they were pre-pandemic, so I don’t know if it was all that close. Summer helps too.
That said yeah general reception was great (despite the movie being pretty bad in my personal opinion) and their is definitely a many pages long stretch of this thread that looks super funny now
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On 8/21/2024 at 4:57 AM, Hades said:
Wade begging Jon Favreau to join the Avengers has already aged badly....They will be the ones begging to join him now
After this does outside the top 15 WW when every single Avengers movie made top 5? This movie is doing great and I’m happy for it, but it is decidedly not, as the kids say, an Avengers level threat
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57 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:
Do you think 1.7B is possible from this point? That should be the last milestone after it passes The Lion King (2019) and Jurassic World. Jurassic World DOM is happening and Lion King WW is locked up but 1.7B is its last possible milestone
1 hour ago, Cooper Legion said:all still on track for last week's nums
On 8/18/2024 at 6:00 PM, Cooper Legion said:would take the over on 1.7 by a hair but under 2xIO1
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On 8/18/2024 at 6:00 PM, Cooper Legion said:
INSIDE OUT II overseas weekend grosses
140.0M | weekend 1
167.8M | weekend 2 [372.6M] |232.6M week
108.0M | weekend 3 [545.5M] | 172.9M week (-25%)
080.9M | weekend 4 [685.7M] | 140.2M week (-20%)
049.6M | weekend 5 [776.9M] | 91.2M week (-35%)
036.5M | weekend 6 [849.2M] | 72.3M week (-21%)
023.4M | weekend 7 [893.0M] | 43.8M week (-39%)
929.3 | OS-J 924.3 | 30.7M week (-30%)
958.1M | OS-J 946 | 21.7M week (-29.3%)
983.8M | OS-J 963M* | 17M week (-22%)*using 21.3M for Japan and est 0.5M rise for actuals
30% drops would take OS-J to just over 1B. Say 1000-1015 most likely. Japan now thinking ~35-40M, for OS just shy of 1.05B. DOM still looking 655-660 or so, so I would take the over on 1.7 by a hair but under 2xIO1
INSIDE OUT II overseas weekend grosses
140.0M | weekend 1
167.8M | weekend 2 [372.6M] |232.6M week
108.0M | weekend 3 [545.5M] | 172.9M week (-25%)
080.9M | weekend 4 [685.7M] | 140.2M week (-20%)
049.6M | weekend 5 [776.9M] | 91.2M week (-35%)
036.5M | weekend 6 [849.2M] | 72.3M week (-21%)
023.4M | weekend 7 [893.0M] | 43.8M week (-39%)
929.3 | OS-J 924.3 | 30.7M week (-30%)
958.1M | OS-J 946 | 21.7M week (-29.3%)
985.1M | OS-J 964.2 | 18.2M week (-16%)1003.3 | OS-J 977.2 | 13M week (-28.5%)
Continuing 30% drops would add 30M for ~1005-1010 OS-J. Essentially all still on track for last week's nums
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5
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CBM weeks at #1:
NWH 6
DPW 5 (nearly assured with next wknd)
BP 5
BP2 5
SC 4
gotg 4
TDK 4
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3
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Maybe like 20% for JW and 30% for 650 imo
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Kind of a weak hold for DPW, though fingers crossed sun will randomly overperform again.
Now looking for maybe 605-610 the through Labor Day, likely 640s finish
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6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
@Cooper Legion do you still think DPW is passing Jurassic World? I don't think it will now, finish in the low 640s it's looking like. Which is GREAT but kinda annoying to end THAT close to the original release domestic top 10
Definitely a bit weak past 3 days. Seems to be narrowing in on 640-655ish
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Put me down for incredibles 3 or frozen 4
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Yeah this is a late august wknd thread alright
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32 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
FTFY
No, 52M post labor would be pretty unlikely. Not totally impossible but it would need to hold extremely well throughout September, particularly on Beetlejuice wknd
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13 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
If it copies GOTG 1 from here on then it will finish at $657.64M (553.5-229.06+333.2)
What do you think of this?
Actually if it's 611.5 by end of labor day and then copies GOTG 1 from there it'll be at 663
Probably make ~5-10% more from now through labor and ~10-25% less post labor, relative to gotg1
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14 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
@Cooper Legion do you have a breakdown for how this passes JW's $653.41M domestically? I genuinely don't see how it gets there, but I really hope it does so it can enter the original release DOM top 10 (well, before Minecraft/Zoo 2/Avatar 3 kicks it out
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Sure, should do a little under 6M on wed+th for weekdays of ~12.5 cume ~559
wknd ~20 (-33%) for week of ~32.5 cume ~579
weekdays of ~8M (-35%) // 587
Labor 4day of ~23.5M, Tues-th ~3 for a wk ~27 cume ~614.5
poat labor wknd of ~ 9M and weekdays ~3M for 12M week // 626 cume
from there ~30% avg drops adds ~29M
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1 hour ago, JimmyB said:
When does Barbie catch D&W?
Never
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21 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:
no
Quite possibly
16 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:Does IO2 have $11m left in the tank to pass JW?
Almost certainly given expansion
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OW: 6th biggest
2nd wknd: 8th
3rd: 12th
4th: 11th biggest (removing Sniper and Revenant nonsense)
5th weekend real 11th place would be 20M, has some chance to rise back up to 9th (requires beating Barbie’s 21.03M).
6th weekend could very well rise back up to 6th biggest (and biggest for MCU for the 1st time) requiring 17.1 to beat BP
7th weekend the party will be over as it drops out of top 20 (albeit with a chance to land around IO2/TDK/TA/CM zone for top 25)
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48 minutes ago, Selma said:
So it IS locked to get 1 billion overseas ?
I mean it will hit that by next wknd. O/U 1.05B OS
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Movie
Gross
Shows
Change
PSA
Last PSA
PSA drop
Alien:Romulus
42,003,361
96,775
434
Deadpool & Wolverine
30,003,064
57,241
-35.13%
524
609.45
-14.00%
It Ends With Us
23,807,130
54,327
-19.37%
438
612.57
-28.46%
Twisters
10,000,340
34,594
-14.33%
289
371.52
-22.19%
Borderlands
2,427,379
33,515
-26.60%
72
156.55
-53.74%
Despicable Me 4
6,258,985
28,465
-15.06%
220
238.23
-7.70%
Trap
3,441,333
20,538
-43.25%
168
183.77
-8.82%
Inside Out 2
3,470,125
17,104
-29.06%
203
200.76
1.06%
Coraline
9,611,555
16,061
598
Ryan's World the Movie
420,049
10,199
41
My Penguin Friend
1,026,002
9,439
109
Cuckoo
873,296
8,511
-56.81%
103
137.68
-25.47%
Harold and Crayon
1,102,070
7,372
-75.83%
149
100.51
48.74%
Skincare
323,856
6,117
53
Rob Peace
253,216
4,789
53
Longlegs
698,075
3,296
-62.15%
212
224.06
-5.47%
FWIW a little show postmortem on the weekend (all credit to @katnisscinnaplex samples for data). Coraline and Borderlands jointly will be giving up ~45k screens, Aliens can part with another 40k+ in all likelihood, newbies won’t demand much so clear room for the well performing holdovers to have very robust screen (and gross) drops
BTW just to be clear “change” is Show count vw last wknd
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51 minutes ago, todos said:
Screens look bad for new movies. I think Disney is giving IO2 an expansion this weekend or planning to. Sudden increase in weekend show allocations (4 to 6) in some theatres where it’s had 1 or 2 shows the last two to three weeks.
Weird decision when they dropped it on digital the same week.One wknd before labor hood be interesting timing for expansion relative to history, question would be whether they try to expand again, hold steady, or accept some losses the wknd after.
Makes sense that it should claw some back during the dead zone though tbh, very robust PSA compared to a lot of what else is out
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2
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38 minutes ago, thajdikt said:
What number Are you expecting today for D&W
Haven’t thought about it much yet, don’t usually care much about 4th weekdays or whatever. Low 3s I guess
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8 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
If Deadpool & Wolverine follows GOTG 1 (jn real time) from here on then it will finish at $657,334,574
I'm not sure exactly what calculation this is?
I have 674 following the gotg calendar comp but it should hold poorer than that. Maybe 645-665 or so at this point
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PTA drop for summer MCU on pre-labor day wknd:
cap:tfa -24%
gotg1 25%
am1 -10%
Smh -25%
am&tw -13%
ffh -10%
bw -11%
l&t -27%
Usual relationship of better TC hold worse PTA hold, DPW likely a 90-95% TC hold 20-25% pta drop for overall 28-32% drop or so
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2 hours ago, baumer said:
For Deadpool and Wolverine to make anywhere close to 20 million next weekend means would have to fall right around or even less than 30%. I don't see how that's going to happen.
Actuals will probably be 30-30.5 or so, so might be able to skate by with ~34% drop. But yeah should be expected more around 30% or a bit better. That would be a pretty typical drop for a well received summer MCU around late August, especially with no major competition/screen loss, coming off of losing PLFs this week, and more school these next weekdays hurting weekdays but shifting business to weekend (these are the typical dynamics that drive such holds in this zone of course, but just noting they apply here as well)
Could creep into the 21-22 zone even depending on how thing play, or might drop a bit on the harsher side of possibility to like 18-19 which is still a solid shot to win the weekend
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Weekend Thread August 23rd-25th
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Cooper Legion
Looking ahead to next wknd the bar for a top 10 6th wknd is J:WttJ’s 16,144,874, or ~a 11.8% drop. Doable but far from assured