Joyous Legion
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Posts posted by Joyous Legion
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70, it’s amazing.
Olive said not even a third — could end up not even quarter.
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Some people may be behaving weir next few days to avoid being positive on Xmas. I will wait until 26th to really assess.
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Below FFH 1st Tuesday, sub 400 it is
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I guess this was best finale, but maybe better said as least worst finale. I think last 4 shows are all bottom 15 for me despite this starting quite strong. Pretty stumbling start on TV side after WV showed good promise — gotta pick things up in 2022.
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38 minutes ago, PhilipJ2001 said:
spider-man down just under 10% on tuesday compared to monday.
burning off demand, or people worried about covid?
What’s the usual daily pattern for mega openers? -10% tues would be normal/good in a lot of the markets I hang around more.
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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
I mean sure, but the GA hasn't seen the film yet though. The scores on review sites are fine so far (which matters more than the contents of the reviews themselves). And wasn't PS chugging along just fine until Spider-man hit? I just don't see how interest would just collapse with no reason at all. Maybe Spider-man isn't the entire reason, but I think it started a domino effect and killed any momentum this movie had after its initial trailer.
I think there’s a terrible trio of intensifying omicron headlines, spidey sucking up oxygen, and mixed (not awful, but legit mixed) reactions (while the review aggregator numbers are not that bad the social media responses were underwhelming as those go). It is hard to disentangle, and of course all of those interact with each other and with max.
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14 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
Nah, it still works. A sequel to a 2016 kids film has way less in common than nostalgia sequels to huge 2000s franchises. And Matrix is on streaming, while Sing 2 isn't. Matrix 4's biggest audience is more likely to have seen Spider-man than Sing 2's and are more likely to stay home than go to the cinema again (espescially since they can watch the film at home).
I mean, look — I agree that it has more demo overlap with NWH and that this is a bad date for it. Been saying so for months. I agree that max will hurt it, been saying so for even longer. But these sales numbers are really collapsing compared to strong initial indications of interest, and I don’t think you can blame that all on spidey. The word out on this movie currently makes it sound less GA appealing than the GA likely expected.
Personally I am probably gonna watch it in a theater Thursday and I’m kind of expecting to like it more than NWH, but that won’t change that it looks like it will need an Xmas miracle to hit (already fairly lowered by factors you mention) expectations $$wise.
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5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
Yeah, I'm sure it's just a lack of interest and has nothing to do with the film releasing 3 days after the 2nd biggest opener of all time.
I think sylvester’s post is really hyperbolic, but this is not much of an excuse either when Sing looks to do waaaaay more on the exact same date.
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25 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:
Have you seen the data for NWH Wed so far? How much drop from Tue?
About 175k today.
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Reception ain’t gonna help. The year of max ending with a whimper.
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20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Hmm. I should get paid. 😌
I’d tell you to make more bets with people on Reddit, but they seem to have welshed on my $40 so that’s a dead end 😔
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10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I was under impression that discounts aren't happening as widespread. I think TROS didn't had them at all.
If the discount are widespread, my projection will improve a bit.
I think they were cancelled for TROS because it was 24th. I think they may be cancelled for NWH 28th, but active for 21st?
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I guess if Sony wanted to be saved by Jat they should have made a good movie
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Safe to say we don’t have to worry about the openers 🤣
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8 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
I didn’t say the concept lost its pull, but it seems like it peaked early.
Just seems like a weird thing to say when we’ve only seen it once so far 😛
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5 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:
I think Jat should be banned and stripped of his purple for what he's done to this thread! This is outrageous! Blasphemous!! He wanted NWH to fail all along!!
I hold him personally responsible for not buying $1M of DOM tickets today
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Like 31.5 actual be much more bearable than 29.5
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28 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
That’s a bit of a flawed comparison, unless you think this movie will make more than NWH. Besides, I didn’t even say that it wouldn’t be a big hit. Just that I can’t imagine it matching the hype that people had for NWH.
My only point is that the idea of a concept having lost its pull after one movie is silly. This differs from IW in some pretty important respects of course (though IW was below TA adjusted anyway).
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NWH would have been 290+ with DS2’s date imo, so 30% less will get the job done for me.
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Mon: spillover
Tues: discounts
Wed: OD for competition
Th: “normal”
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10 minutes ago, ZackM said:
I've got SM:NWH trailing Monday by about 4% at Alpha thus far. That doesn't account for reduced ticket prices so we'll have to see what the actual drop is.
Could dig up alpha admit drop relationship to gross drop back from keyser daily runs I guess.
8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:Yikes. Just 2 responses in 15 mins. The forum is truly dead.
Am seeing 20% drop for 30 as of now.
Never mind, looks like about 17% atp drop then.
Not what we were hoping for, XXR’s tues nums look really bad too. Some March 2020 flashbacks, let’s see how it goes.
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4 minutes ago, Macleod said:
Except I tend to doubt he'll get much space to arc his character in this chaos, either... as Cumby has already himself alluded to!
People really seem to misunderstand the implications of that quote 🤣
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Hmm, that could be like mid 20s wed, maybe we’re finally getting killed by omicron 👀
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In strange’s defense he was deliberately a weak ignorant asshole in the origins story as part of his character arc, and since then has only appeared in supporting roles where it makes sense for him to assume a more severe posture as part of the character dynamic vs the MCU’s over abundance of lighthearted quipster types. DS2 is the first best chance to actually be likable, so we’ll see what comes of it.
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South Korea Box Office
in International Box Office
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Yep, 25.3% in CGV so it’s all down to the respective CGV ratios today. I think higher gross and day 8 vs OD favors NWH, but not sure about demographic or regional factors on chain ratio so for me it looks 50/50.