Jump to content

Legion Again

Gold Account
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    22,393

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    17

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Legion Again

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Elegiental

    Mission Impossible adjusted (I’m lazy and using the-numbers with a 2022 atp of 10.45 but 2023 will probably come in ~10.85 in reality so you can kick these up like 3-4%):

    MI 375M

    MI2 366M

    MI3 187M

    MI4 276M

    MI5 242M 

    MI6 253M

    MI7 190 (est)

     

    Could be a nail biter with MI3 which likely will be ~193 or so.

    Pretty consistent franchise, some drop off from first entries is normal and then stabilization

    • Like 1

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

    @Elegiental (great name btw lol) what are the per showing averages looking like for elemental vs indy/insidious? Who is getting the chop more for Barbenheimer?

    Updated with mix of studio ests and my ests:

    Movie Shows Change Gross PSA
    Mission: Impossible 7 100,031   $55,000,000 $550
    Insidious 6 43,287 -20.22% $13,000,000 $300
    Indiana Jones 5 40,724 -40.42% $12,000,000 $295
    Sound of Freedom 36,577 16.93% $27,500,000 $752
    Elemental 35,171 -3.90% $8,900,000 $253
    Joy Ride 26,152 -32.20% $2,600,000 $99
    Spider-Verse 2 25,604 -15.30% $6,100,000 $238
    No Hard Feelings 19,455 -30.47% $3,250,000 $167
    Transformers 6 16,997 -28.03% $3,400,000 $200
    The Little Mermaid 11,623 -35.27% $2,400,000 $206
    The Miracle Club 8,364     $0
    Ruby Gillman 7,715 -75.87% $950,000 $123
    Asteroid City 6,283 -47.84% $1,160,000 $185
    Psycho-Pass 5,247   $200,000 $38
    The Flash 4,335 -65.09% $700,000 $161

     

    Howner ever exhibitors can look at the PSA drops vs last week and demo competition to see that Elemental will have a higher PSA curve next wknd so I anticipate something like:

    Barbie 125k

    Opp 90k

    SoF 45k

    MI 40k

    Ele 28k

    Insidious 20k

    Indy 18k

    SV2 16k


    This is my first time projecting though didn’t go too hard at it

     

    • Like 4
    • Heart 1
    • Haha 1

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

    I swear i remember the articles being about “oh it’s not so good but let’s see the legs” instead of outright calling a disappointment 

     

    Maybe i’m mistaken with another movie 

    Ah that’s fair there was some cope about the Jul 4 timing deflating the 3day. But I would say that overall MI7 is getting the extreme kiddie gloves compared to Indy from the press in terms as far as 300M movies doing 80M 5days go

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, narniadis said:

    Really think it has the juice to get to 200m?

     

    160m+ I could see and would be on the train for, just not sure it can make it to that uber upper level (as if making it to 160m wouldn't already be a crazy total.)

     

    Sure, I mean:

    Sat 10.5

    Sun 9.5 //86

    4.5

    5

    4.5

    4 // 104

     

    That’s with a 45M wk so say it drops 40% to barbenhiemer ( 27// 131) and then 30% from there adds 63 for 194. Wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those nums beat.

    • Like 3
    • Haha 1

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

    I feel like the Collapse of China has a reliable market is the reason for this, a billion without China is the same as it was in the 2010s. 

    At this point I would move away from comparing WW nums and mostly looks at WW-C comparison. 1B WW got to the point where it wasn’t worth that much but 1B WW-C never did.

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

    I'm sure Dead Reckoning could do these numbers if Christopher McQuarie could have people "buy tickets" in bulk to donate them to a fradulent charity while the tickets go unused in empty theaters. Frankly Mojo and this site reporting these numbers as "reality" is the equivalent of me reporting that I broke Wilt Chamberlain's 100 point game at my local YMCA against middle schoolers. But I already got my one warning point for bringing up Sound of Freedom so I will say no more! 

    If somebody wanted to spend $45 to buy 3 tickets for Dead reckoning and use them as 1 for personal viewing+ 2 to be used by people who want to see the movie but can’t afford it, that seems… totally legit and good? I think this would have been a great option for say, Black Panther — in fact the gofundme’s leading to charity buys (which I think were good and pretty widely positively received?) are basically the same concept but with more convoluted logistics 🤷‍♂️ 

    • Like 5
    • Haha 1

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

    Expecting something similar next weekend tbh

     

    I think even Indy have more chances of losing more shows 

     

    5 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

    As for this week:

    Movie Shows Change Gross PSA
    Mission: Impossible 7 100,031   $49,000,000 $490
    Insidious 6 43,287 -20.22% $14,000,000 $323
    Indiana Jones 5 40,724 -40.42% $13,500,000 $331
    Sound of Freedom 36,577 16.93% $24,000,000 $656
    Elemental 35,171 -3.90% $8,800,000 $250
    Joy Ride 26,152 -32.20% $2,600,000 $99
    Spider-Verse 2 25,604 -15.30% $5,900,000 $230
    No Hard Feelings 19,455 -30.47% $3,250,000 $167
    Transformers 6 16,997 -28.03% $3,400,000 $200
    The Little Mermaid 11,623 -35.27% $2,300,000 $198
    The Miracle Club 8,364     $0
    Ruby Gillman 7,715 -75.87% $950,000 $123
    Asteroid City 6,283 -47.84% $1,100,000 $175
    Psycho-Pass 5,247   $300,000 $57
    The Flash 4,335 -65.09% $700,000 $161


    SoF isn’t 2nd in PSA after all :sparta:

     

    I expect we’ll see extreme volume hold (or even further expansion?) for SoF, MI falling to some 40k or so, Elemental by 30%ish, and extreme slash to the rest to make way for 200k+ new demand.

    ;)

    • Like 1

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    As for this week:

    Movie Shows Change Gross PSA
    Mission: Impossible 7 100,031   $49,000,000 $490
    Insidious 6 43,287 -20.22% $14,000,000 $323
    Indiana Jones 5 40,724 -40.42% $13,500,000 $331
    Sound of Freedom 36,577 16.93% $24,000,000 $656
    Elemental 35,171 -3.90% $8,800,000 $250
    Joy Ride 26,152 -32.20% $2,600,000 $99
    Spider-Verse 2 25,604 -15.30% $5,900,000 $230
    No Hard Feelings 19,455 -30.47% $3,250,000 $167
    Transformers 6 16,997 -28.03% $3,400,000 $200
    The Little Mermaid 11,623 -35.27% $2,300,000 $198
    The Miracle Club 8,364     $0
    Ruby Gillman 7,715 -75.87% $950,000 $123
    Asteroid City 6,283 -47.84% $1,100,000 $175
    Psycho-Pass 5,247   $300,000 $57
    The Flash 4,335 -65.09% $700,000 $161


    SoF isn’t 2nd in PSA after all :sparta:

     

    I expect we’ll see extreme volume hold (or even further expansion?) for SoF, MI falling to some 40k or so, Elemental by 30%ish, and extreme slash to the rest to make way for 200k+ new demand.

    TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

    The grosses of the Mission: Impossible movies range from $180M (the first from '96) to $220M (Fallout) with MI3 as the outlier for understandable reasons (6 year wait between movies, blah reception to MI2, actual Cruise Fatigue from his odd public behavior the previous year), so I guess if this hits $160M it won't be that far off the mark? I don't know, this franchise clearly has a ceiling if you ask me.

    This nominal steadiness is just a sign of secular real decline. When MI10 does $190 in 2031 that’ll be pretty eh.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept