Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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Please have sympathy for Paramount’s wholenumberphobia
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3 minutes ago, XXR Electric Touch said:
Elemental needs 5,064,797 admits to be the highest non-Frozen, foreign animated film. Does it get there?
Blowing past 6M easily
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Presumably yday will be the highest day of run but here’s hoping something crazy 😁
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From May 12 - Jul 21 we won’t have any back to back wknd winners, I wonder how strong a streak that is historically (that’s 11 weeks — could even go all the way to like, October, but I’m expecting Barbie 2nd wknd will top Mansion for now).
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7 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:
He isn't referring to nationwide sales but one specific sample. Just like Drafthouse, where sales are 2nd only to Thor & BP, may be higher I haven't checked.
I guess that makes even more sense but on the flip side even less meaningful
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I think reasonably around 3.55 for ele but would love to see more like 3.8
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21 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
Anyway,
Looking forward for estimates. Does anyone have Saturday numbers?
Jat posted 9.5+ for insidious a while back but aside from that should be rolling in the next 3 hours
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He’s making a prediction that the OW will be biggest since WF based on the current PS stock&flow. He’s not saying that the current PS level is above every movie since WF (see @M37’s posts for more on that).
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14 minutes ago, Eric Bunny said:
This is where you were being passive aggressive. “Out here in reality” is you mocking others for saying Barbie is selling more than Avatar 2. And yeah, maybe they are wrong, but using that phrase is a direct insult and holier than thou condescension whether you realize that or not. “In reality, where smarty pants like me live and dumb dumbs like Barbie stans are, Barbie is way behind those other movies”. That is insulting and disrespectful and totally uncalled for.
If you said something like “that’s not very accurate. Barbie is a fair bit behind Avatar and significantly behind recent Marvle movies”, you would have been fine. But you just had to act like a pompous jerk for zero reason. That’s not cool and we’re not letting that slide. You’re an adult, so it’s expected for you to behave like one.
So next time, please at least try to be mindful of your delivery and ask yourself, “will this be taken the wrong way?”. It only takes a few seconds.
If someone says “2+2 is 5” and I go “out here in reality, 2+2 is 4” is that an attack? Is that trolling? Am I being passive aggressive towards other members (if anything it would be passive aggressive against EC, though in this case it was people misinterpreting what he said not him saying something false). I don’t think so. It just is what it is, and I’m trying to help the board by letting people reading the thread know. I feel like you latch on to minor uses of wording by me that you wouldn’t (and shouldn’t!) warn other people for.
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Barbie legs will be very interesting. For now I think Rise of Gru is a solid comp (added ~ 2.72x true FSS) which would take say 20->105 to 337. Certainly possible it opens higher if things keep chugging.
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Yeah, I very much doubt it has the highest true th this year but wed+th combining for highest yearly previews is at least plausible, perhaps liekly. Being firmly behind but at least in the ballpark of half+ the mcu films at this point is very promising when you consider how those come into the final week with big volume and then have among the lowest % rises.
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1 minute ago, M37 said:
Just thinking out loud:
Barbenheimer O/U Mario domestic? (~$575M)
330+180? It within targeting range I guess but I’m not quite there
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2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
Don't like condescendence
You could very well be factually correct about this, but did you need to be passive-aggressive about someone daring to say Barbie has hot pre-sales? It's like a point you have to go out of your way to prove that it's not having Marvel movie pre-sales or something?
I was not being passive aggressive about someone saying Barbie presales were hot (they are! It’s doing great! Super great!) I was just setting the factual record straight. EC didn’t even say that Presales were beating every movie since WF — because of course, he knows they aren’t — he was predicting that it would open bigger than very movie since WF (which seems a little overheated to me, but outside chance). The false claim being spread was someone misreading his Twitter so I was trying to nip that in the bud.
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28 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:
Out here in reality it’s similar to A2 for previews and behind in total PS iirc. Way behind QM and Gotg.
Don’t like facts @WorkingonaName and @MCKillswitch123?
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2 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:
Barbie with more presales than Avatar 2? That's surprising.
Out here in reality it’s similar to A2 for previews and behind in total PS iirc. Way behind QM and Gotg.
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Marvels would have done fine, but the screen crunch would be insane. Very bad forMI and oppy, huge girl power month.
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2 hours ago, LegionGPT said:
Elemental/Flash
OW 0.538x
2nd 1.218x
3rd 2.316x
4th 4.558x
5th 8.721x
FWIW if my 5th weekend ests pencil out, the ratios will be very nearly 16.0x what it was on OW — Elemental has been holding basically 2x as well as Flash every weekend so far.
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17 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
The Flash could go as low as #12 this weekend, while Elemental holds #4 position despite opening at the same time but $25 million lower. What a stark contrast of excellent vs terrible legs.
Elemental/Flash
OW 0.538x
2nd 1.218x
3rd 2.316x
4th 4.558x
5th 8.721x
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Jackman and McKellan are the big draws (since Stewart was already used).
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Looking quite plausible tbh though still not easy
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DS2 was back when the mcu brand was a big boon. If we want that back this will probably be more of the final movie that does the rebuilding (if it can be closer to NWH than MoM/QM) than the first that benefits from it.
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Aladdin has always seemed like the most obvious comparison to me. Elemental will have better legs even since it barely opened half (3day vs 3day)
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MCU brand can be a hindrance or a help depending on Marvels. If it’s great we can have a “is McU returning to good movies?” narrative. If it’s bad then simply “Gotg was an exception.”
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20 minutes ago, XXR Electric Touch said:
O/U AOU WW?
WW-C seems like a more fair comparison? Still under. If Marvels and this both grab As then maybe
Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Nicely remembered. Looks like 13 wknds in 2011 and 1 in 2010 (Focker’s 2nd) for a total of 14