Cappoedameron
-
Posts
2,530 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by Cappoedameron
-
-
3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:
What if second weekend is a sub-50% drop
Then it'd be 185, assuming of course the $370 is legit. It could be anywhere from 310 - 370
-
1 minute ago, JB33 said:
In fairness, with what Endgame is accomplishing this weekend we probably shouldn't be dismissing anything. It doesn't mean your point is wrong either, just that we're seeing rules broken left right and centre with this movie.
Regardless of how big the movie is to suggest a 52% drop off rate with no competition but only a 39% with actual hard competition makes no sense to me.
-
58 minutes ago, TMP said:
$370m
$180m
$110m/ $55m pika pika
$75m 4-day/ $55m aladdin 4-day
$45m/$42m godzilla 2
imo
So let me get this straight you see Endgame having a 52% drop off rate in 2nd weekend. Which is understandable 50-55% is the average drop rate for Marvel movies in 2nd weekend. I personally think it'll be higher but we shall see.
Then with Detective Pikachu you see Endgame only having a drop off rate of - 39%? Listen buddy if Battleship was able to give Avengers only a -45% hold and Infinty War also had a - 45% against Life of the Party and Breaking in. Ain't no way in hell an established behemoth like Pokemon is gonna only give Endgame a - 39% hold. I personally believe Pokemon will give Endgame another 50-55% drop off rate. Battleship, Life of the Party, Breaking In was not competition and Avengers films did -45% against it, Pokemon is competition. Whether people choose to believe it or not.
I honestly have no idea where you got your predictions tbh. You clearly underwhelm everything in place of Endgame. Aladdin is estimated for an $80 M OW, and Pikachu is estimated for an $82 OW which I have a feeling may go up. You took your Godzilla prediction from BOP but not any other.
Endgame and Pikachu is gonna be a battle, either can win the 3rd weekend.
-
1
-
-
26 minutes ago, TMP said:
I'm using BoP's $45m Godzilla 2 predict, but going under on it due to Endgame. Using Mendolson's Pika pika tracking but going slightly higher on it. Aladdin looks like a bomb, but people on here keep insisting otherwise. We'll see...
If you're using BOP's you should use it for Pika as well which they estimate at 82M which could balance out to 85M.
QuoteIt's all but guaranteed to cross Pikachu imo, and I could see it passing Aladdin too.
And it's also not clean cut that Endgame beats Pikachu, it's actually gonna be probably a very close battle.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, JB33 said:
I actually HOPE Detective Pikachu wins in its opening weekend. Why? Because that means it will have to be big in order to beat Endgame.
Even if it loses it still comes out looking like a beast and IMO something WB would be happy with.
-
2
-
-
BTW we should open up a thread for this upcoming pokemon battle where i honestly think it's too close to call. And if Pikachu loses it still looks damn good in defeat coming with a bunch of accolades.
*Highest grossing film in May
*Highest grossing opening weekend for WB since Justice League
*Able to compete against Endgame and still make a dang good profit
This is going to be a Pokemon battle for the ages, screw Mewtwo vs Mew.
-
1
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
I'm going to track Endgame's 2nd Friday much like I did previews Thursday. Feels necessary since the likelihood of the 2nd weekend record being broken is decently high. Our work here is not yet finished....
Or it could prove it was extremely frontloaded... we shall known within a week. I'm off now to watch EG for the 2nd time, with family.
-
1
-
-
It could be 350 x .50(-50%) = 175. It could be 350 x .45(-55%) = 157. This is the traditional Marvel studios average drop.
It could be a 350 x .40(-60%) = 140 or lower 350 x .38 (-62%) = 133. This would be if it's a heavily influenced frontloaded film and people rushed to see it due to spoilers and it being the "end" of the last 22 films.
It could be a 350 x .55(-45%) = 192 or even higher if it will indeed have incredible legs.
Lots of ways it can go and we'll know it all within a week from now.
-
I guess we'll have to wait till next week to see what kind of legs it will have. Instead of playing this guessing game.
-
19 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:
I cant imagine what film will even top EG or create this size of sensation in the next 5 or even 10 years.
Pokemon Red/Blue or Pokemon film with Ash, Misty, and Brock + Team Rocket
Super Smash Bros
Or if we want to keep it in house.
X-Men vs Avengers or X-Men + Avengers + Fantastic 4 vs Galactus
-
1
-
-
13 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Definitely over. I think there is a great chance End Game does 80+ and beats Pikachu for the top spot in US and several areas in the world.
BOP has Pikachu at $82 could likely end up at $90. It's gonna be a close battle. Anything could happen. I still say Pikachu will win but it'll be close.
Pikachu 85/90
Endgame 75/80
If Pikachu loses it still is a huge victory for WB as a company. Likely the biggest May release and for WB the biggest opening since Justice League in 2017. If Pikachu wins WB can boast that it took down the king of the box office.
-
1
-
-
Just now, DeeCee said:
Endgame
Avengers
IW
Ultron
I mean Ultron is always going to be at the bottom... of literally everything. I think the only worse movie in the MCU then it is Thor 2.
-
3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Demand pushed the ow record - not Disney. Theaters weren't going to leave money on the table
Yes because it's an event finale film. Demand won't be as high next week when the GA have already seen said finale. Marvel films get a 50-55% drop off rate traditionally. Is this gonna be like that, lower, or higher. We'll have to find out.
-
9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
I still don't think Avatar WW is in play. This has to be frontloaded... A bit at least. With kind of weekend. No knock on it.
It's massively frontloaded. Not just a bit, people want to see it OW so they don't get spoiled. This is a massive event film, I would say the biggest similarity is Deathly Hallows with Harry Potter. Yes I know it's making a sh*t ton more then that movie. But it was a finale and the 2nd weekend drop off of said finale was over 68%
2nd weekend is gonna be telling could be a normal Marvel drop off like 50-55% or it could be higher because of how heavily frontloaded it is with Disney going for that opening weekend record.
It's gonna be a very interesting week.
-
1
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:
You know what I find fascinating? How Detective Pikachu is #2 and it's the only one that did not have a single major trailer come out during this date time line. The last major trailer for DP fell on February 26th.
-
3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
310 with 2.5 legs is 775 which means a monster 3rd week probably 70+ million.
Pika is tracking on BOP for a 90+ OW.
-
23 minutes ago, Nova said:
Pikachu and Wick's sales are really bad the last couple days...if not more. There's no way to front that. They were both doing good initially and then dropped off and haven't recovered. They would both need to increase by a whole lot starting next to make up the ground they have lost. Wick is in a better spot since it has an extra weekend between it and End Game though to make up ground.
Nothing has recovered cause Endgame is here and that's what all the trades said. Why not wait till Monday to start this? Geez in the other thread you said sales are good and now it's bad. I don't understand this back and forth mentality but then again I don't understand tracking box office yet. So IDK how it works.
-
1
-
-
Ugly Dolls was never gonna win. It was either gonna be destroyed by Endgame or completely overshadowed by Detective Pikachu opening the same weekend which is what was slated and then it moved.
I guess it hopes that parents will take their kids to go see a kids movie over a 3 hr epic.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Stewart said:
Could Pika and Wick be affected by the selection some people have mentioned? Where because Endgame is so huge, as a % of sales Wick and Pika get their numbers reduced.
No. Because Pikachu comes out in EG 3rd weekend and JW comes out it's 4th weekend. After this weekend demand won't be as high anymore.
Endgame is severely frontloaded for obvious reasons(Disney wants that record) and this likely means second weekend is going to have a big drop off and even more in the 3rd one.
Pikachu and Wick won't be effected by Endgame. Pikachu is safe according to many BOA's on Twitter and YT.
The same cannot be said for Ugly Dolls, that is R.I.P indeed.
-
1
-
2
-
-
55 minutes ago, cax16 said:
DP tickets just went on sale at my local theatre either yesterday or today. Preview night has sold almost 40 tickets already. Pretty decent tbh for this far out. No 4pm previews for DP at my theatre.
Shoot I'm the one pushing this movie and I took a second to realize what he was saying. Can we just call it Pika Pika from now on to not confuse it with Deadpool?
-
2
-
3
-
-
My apologies for my naiveness when it comes to tracking. I hope to be able to understand it hopefully soon to not come off the way I have been.
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:
Movie/Time Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Avengers: Endgame 26,081 27,623 33,668 26,817 11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days Detective Pikachu 350 258 240 234 25 days 24 days 23 days 22 days John Wick 3 1,361 734 601 291 32 days 31 days 30 days 29 days Secret Life of Pets 2 11 11 12 13 53 days 52 days 51 days 50 days Endgame
Last 7 Days (14-8)
181% of Black Panther (365M)
152% of Infinity War (393.1M)
349% of Captain Marvel (535.3M)
Day 17-8
186% of Black Panther (374.9M)
165% of Infinity War (426.4M)
411% of Captain Marvel (630.4M)
Day 22-8
198% of Infinity War (509.6M)
532% of Captain Marvel (815.7M)
Cumulative (minus first two days)
121% of Infinity War (312.8M)
329% of Captain Marvel (505.1M)
Thank you for this. Is it a good thing that Pikachu is so dang steady and consistent across the board so far or no?
-
15 minutes ago, Nova said:
In the same article Scott pretty much admits he has no idea what he’s talking about. Comparing Jumanji (which had holiday legs to boost its gross) to Pikachu (which has a slew of blockbusters on its heels) so
Also mind you box office pro has Pikachu on the low range of $75M which judging by Scott’s wording of what he expects to happen isn’t exactly off his prediction either
So essentially the article is a lot of clickbait.
-
4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Scott Mendelson
Except BOPro was not "very wrong" about MPR opening but it's legs which are not part of tracking and their prediction fell in line with official tracking so...
Back in Novemeber everyone predicted that the trades would not be able to track this movie so they go with the lowest possible number. It's a true wildcard and they do not know what to do with it. Even Scott doesn't know what to do with it.
AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Cappoedameron
Most outlets are reporting 310-340 including Disney, where's 370 coming from?
The legs are gonna be interesting it could perform like a Marvel film where it does a 50-55% or it could be higher because of the sheer demand of wanting to see it OW for the GA or it could be lower cause of incredible WOM and great legs.
We shall have to see.