Inceptionzq

GvK Friday in Denver

4195 tickets sold in Denver so far today. Comp says 14.63M.

3326 tickets sold for Denver so far today. Straight up comp suggests 8.89M. But note that Denver’s theaters have been open all week, none are only open on the weekends. There’s 50%+ capacity here. So, I think getting close to OD for a Denver comp is quite good considering all the factors. Using some guesswork to account for 600 more theaters, increased PWPs, and presumably stronger walkups, I think this will land high 10s-low 11s.

Detroit #1 in the league

Was bored and messing around with Inspect Element on Chrome, and found a faster way to count seats sold. So I did a count for GvK for today. 2508 tickets sold for Denver so far. Don’t have anything to compare it to because my final count for Wednesday was done Tuesday night at 10. But I guess I’ll do a count tomorrow and maybe Saturday too

There were no Tuesday previews

The only problem with confirming a trend is that I’m comparing my data to FFH OD, Porthos to KoTM, and Eric is just pure numbers. The only thing we can probably say for certain is that GvK is gonna do very well and destroy the trades’ predictions.

Based on key’s data, I’ve been on the side of it overperforming here. But a pandemic era overperformance is different than a regular one IMO. Because in a place like Denver where capacity is 50%+, the AMCs and Cinemarks can make up for the closed Regals/other closed theaters. So those that would’ve gone out to see it OD wouldn’t really be affected(not accounting for the HBO Max factor). But in a more populated area like LA or NY, with lower capacity limits, the open theaters probably won’t be able to make up for the closed theaters. Maybe I’m overestimating how much that’ll actually affect how it trends nationally, but that’s pretty much my reasoning.

TEAM KONG ALL THE WAY

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 1117 3210 34.80% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 718 2622 27.38% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 8 HOURS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 4773 961 20114 23.73% 9 127 Showings added: 4 Seats added: 311 $150 PWPs: 22(+2) $200 PWPs: 4 $250 PWPs: 4 $300 PWPs: 13 Adjusted Far From Home comp: 12.85M Don't take this comp as gospel. I just did some pretty basic adjustments to try account for capacity and theater count limitations. And even with those adjustments, I think that it's clear Denver is overperforming. Having more than 50% capacity(pretty sure it's around 60%) helps a ton. And I didn't even account for PWPs with the comp. So really, this comp is very likely useless. I didn't expect it to be helpful anyways, but I wanted to do it. But besides the comp, this increase in the past 32ish hours has been impressive. 1811 tickets sold in that timeframe. And still a lot of room, so it should do pretty well with walkups tomorrow.

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 954 3210 29.72% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 593 2537 23.37% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 3812 850 19803 19.25% 9 123 Showings added: 8 Seats added: 1761 $150 PWPs: 20 $200 PWPs: 4 $250 PWPs: 4(+1) $300 PWPs: 13 I'll do another update later tonight with some kind of adjusted Far From Home comp.

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 800 3173 25.21% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 500 2451 20.40% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2962 474 18042 16.42% 9 115 Showings added: 15 Seats added: 899 $150 PWPs: 20(+1) $200 PWPs: 4 $250 PWPs: 3 $300 PWPs: 13

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 702 3026 23.20% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 414 2451 16.89% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2488 356 17143 14.51% 9 100 $150 PWPs: 19(+1) $200 PWPs: 4 $250 PWPs: 3 $300 PWPs: 13(+1)

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 609 3026 20.13% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 379 2451 15.46% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 2132 251 17143 12.44% 9 100 Showings added: 2 Seats added: 77 $150 PWPs: 18 $200 PWPs: 4(+1) $250 PWPs: 3 $300 PWPs: 12(+1)

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 533 3026 17.61% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 330 2374 13.90% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1881 224 17066 11.02% 9 98 $150 PWPs: 18 $200 PWPs: 3 $250 PWPs: 3(+1) $300 PWPs: 11(+3) One thing I wanna note, capacity should not be an issue. It is at least 50% here, and there are even some showings with more than 50%. But those are small auditoriums so they may go off of a capped number of people instead. So if there's a big ramp-up in the coming few days up to release, it should be very noticeable here.

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 491 3026 16.23% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 296 2374 12.47% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1657 219 17066 9.71% 9 98 Showings added: 3 Seats added: 514 $150 PWPs: 18(+2) $200 PWPs: 3 $250 PWPs: 2 $300 PWPs: 8(+3) A new AMC theater opened in Denver this month, so I added that today. I did not add the new theater's totals to the seats sold in the past day, or the new showings and seats added. So the 219 tickets sold the past day are all from the 8 theaters I've been tracking the whole time, a pretty solid increase. Just for the record, there are 52 tickets sold at the new theater so far. I will be adding the new theater to tickets sold the past day and for new showings added starting tomorrow.

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 424 3026 14.01% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 256 2164 11.83% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1386 159 15755 8.80% 8 89 Showings added: 25 Seats added: 3790 $150 PWPs: 16 $200 PWPs: 3 $250 PWPs: 2 $300 PWPs: 5

Yeah, I only track one Regal theater. And there are quite a few in the Denver area(never realized but AMC and Regal are even). So it may not necessarily be that Denver is overperforming, but that the theaters I track are getting some more business than usual because of the Regal closures.

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 385 2335 16.49% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 219 1835 11.93% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1227 164 11965 10.25% 8 64 Showings added: 11 Seats added: 1347 $150 PWPs: 16 $200 PWPs: 3 $250 PWPs: 2 $300 PWPs: 5(+1)

Pretty AMC heavy, but the two Cinemarks usually do well.

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 328 1434 22.87% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 205 1835 11.17% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 4 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 1063 377 10618 10.01% 8 53 Showings added: 1 Seats added: 159 $150 PWPs: 16(+5) $200 PWPs: 3(+1) $250 PWPs: 2 $300 PWPs: 4(+2)

Don’t be surprised if “Godzilla vs. Kong” is remembered as the movie that brought the U.S. box office roaring back. Scheduled to release March 31, Warner Bros.’s monster-mashup sequel is poised to deliver what could be a record high for ticket sales during the pandemic era. Very positive early indications are coming from significant pre-release audience interest seen among those willing to brave theaters, according to data provided exclusively to VIP by entertainment market research and analytics firm Guts + Data. Guts + Data is projecting a three-day weekend total of $23.7 million for “Godzilla,” which would surpass the most a movie has made on any opening weekend at the domestic box office since Warner Bros. released sci-fi actioner “Tenet” back on the Labor Day weekend in 2020. But surpassing “Tenet” would be all the more impressive considering that release was exclusive to theaters, while “Godzilla” will see some of its audience opt for the simultaneous streaming debut on HBO Max. Guts + Data’s “Godzilla vs. Kong” projection is informed partly by the firm’s weekly survey data measuring consumer interest gauged after the film’s trailer came out. “As compared to the hundreds of titles tested and already released in the [preceding 12 months], ‘Godzilla vs. Kong’ is the highest scoring,” says Greg Durkin, founder and CEO of Guts + Data (which does not count Warner Bros. among its studio clients). In addition to ranking higher in post-trailer interest than other theatrical titles leading in opening domestic gross did, Durkin says the high interest seen among theatergoers for “Godzilla” is above the leading rates of interest seen for PVOD and SVOD-only titles, which were “Mulan” and “Coming 2 America,” respectively. Beyond recorded interest, timing and competition are also playing big roles here. Guts + Data’s projection for “Godzilla vs. Kong” is predicated on there being no sudden negative change in the state of the U.S. under COVID-19 conditions. After a horrific surge saw coronavirus in the U.S. reach a global peak of 300,000 daily cases, infections have gone down while a third vaccinegained FDA approval. Naturally, apprehension to visit cinemas is continuing to ease among cinephiles, according to Guts + Data survey data. Amid the domestic box office’s biggest markets reopening in recent weeks and tried-and-true tentpoles still on deck for May, film exhibition is potentially eyeing a substantial uptick in revenue after a year under the shadow of COVID-19. Many films that hit theaters in the first quarter of 2021 managed to make around a third of what Guts + Data projects their gross would have been in a pre-COVID climate. That’s in stark contrast to “Wonder Woman 1984,” which notched the second highest opening of the pandemic but just 17% of its 2017 predecessor’s opening box-office haul, due primarily to COVID spikes and the film only being played in select theaters as exhibitors were still adjusting to the shock of the HBO Max pivot at Warner Bros. Furthermore, Guts + Data’s surveyed awareness levels of “Godzilla” show the release is on track to follow “Tom and Jerry,” the most recent Warner Bros. film to hit theaters and HBO Max at the same time. “Some 74% of entertainment consumers are aware of [‘Godzilla vs. Kong’] two weeks before release, where the post-pandemic theatrical average is 33% at that point in time,” says Durkin. Per Guts + Data, “Tom and Jerry” was showing 85% awareness among those surveyed in the week leading up to its Feb. 26 release. Based on the classic animated characters, “Tom and Jerry” also had the competitive advantage of releasing a week ahead of Disney’s animated and family-aimed “Raya and the Last Dragon,” grossing substantially more than “Raya” did despite the Warner Bros. film being available to stream on HBO Max with no added fee, unlike “Raya.” With its films facing no real competition from other major studios, Warner Bros. has been leading the domestic box office, and “Godzilla” is set to stick with that pattern, as the only wide releases surrounding it are Universal’s “Nobody” (March 26) and Sony’s “The Unholy” (April 2 via Screen Gems), both of which are low-risk R-rated genre pics, versus a big-budget, PG-13 battle between well-known legendary movie monsters. With studios continuing to delay films a year into the pandemic, such a tentpole hitting theaters has been a rare phenomenon. Still, if several coronavirus variants end up aiding an expected surge of cases in the U.S. following spring break, “Godzilla” marking an optimistic return to cinemas could be a difficult feeling to sustain, making it possible that big releases on deck for May like “Black Widow” and “A Quiet Place Part II” will move again. I’m on mobile, so sorry if this looks weird on desktop. (FYI, you should be able to bypass the paywall by putting a period after the .com)

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver AMC Westminster 24 Total 260 1434 18.13% AMC Highlands Ranch 24 Total 141 1676 8.41% SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 686 81 10459 6.56% 8 52 $150 PWPs: 11 $200 PWPs: 2 $250 PWPs: 2 $300 PWPs: 2

Depends how that Thursday-Sunday are looking by then. Those days are pretty empty in Denver right now, and unless those also get close to capacity by Wednesday, I don’t think they’d add a significant amount of new screenings. You’d also need to take into account how many people could be in the lobby at once, cleanings between showings, all that jazz.

I’ve been kinda comparing GvK to previous 4PM previews since the majority of tickets sold so far are 4PM or later, and it’s looking really good. The capacity should be 50% in all my theaters, so there are plenty of seats to go around. But there are too many factors for me to get optimistic about it. With how well it’s doing compared to previous 4PM previews, and with most(if not all?) ticket sales being online, the walkups will be much worse. Probably not a surprise considering we saw that with WW84. Plus we’ll see how much it ramps up when the movie gets closer and closer. There are no other big movies to take attention away from GvK between now and release, and less uncertainty surrounding COVID, so I don’t think it’ll ramp up as much. Just the fact that the numbers already look this good 2 weeks out makes me wary of a huge ramp-up as we get closer. And of course, the HBO Max factor. Honestly, with just 2 days of data, it’s hard to be optimistic or pessimistic. The easy answer is probably the right answer for now: we’ll see as we get closer. I have data from Far From Home for a weekday opener that I want to use as a ROUGH comparison, but I only have 3 days of numbers for that.