@Charlie Jatinder If you have the time I would appreciate your box office expertise on something. On another forum (Resetera) the news of Endgame passing Avatar was prefaced by the following disclaimer on fudging. Would you mind sharing your opinion on it?
SPOILER: A PRIMER FOR THIS WEEKEND ON FUDGING
On this weekend, I want to take a second to stop and talk about the reality of Box Office numbers. Box Office numbers aren't a hard science. There's no agency that verifies or ensures that Box Office numbers reported by companies are completely accurate. In truth, a company can often manipulate numbers a bit to give themselves an advantage for a movie trying to cross a major milestone by moving ticket sales or revenue from one movie to another. This is a term called fudging. A company will shift dollars around to give a movie a monetary bump to cross a specific milestone. It's a hard thing to see, follow, and much less prove, but sometimes it is more obvious than others.
As an example, a remarkable thing happened the weekend of June 15-17th, 2018.
A Wrinkle In Time jumped 1,551.4% in a single weekend out of the blue. This is what we call a fudge. Disney manipulated the numbers and shuffled some money from another movie into the reported income for A Wrinkle In Time. The reason for this was simple: Get A Wrinkle In Time across the 100m+ threshold, something that would not have happened without the 1.6M fudge weekend.
Spectre is another famous example of fudging:
Notice how, in March at the end of the run, the per theater average jumps from 252 to suddenly 2.6k then 4.9k then 2.8k. This does not happen naturally. Spectre's numbers were fudged at the end of the life span so that it could reach the 200M domestic milestone.
Perhaps the most famous example is The Dark Knight which had an incredible fudge at the end of the lifespan so it could reach 1B internationally:
The massive spike you see at the end of the lifespan (6844% increase) and high per theater averages is WB pushing the Dark Knight over the line. Box Office Mojo wrote a great article on this: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2551&p=.htm
Another good example is Black Panther which had a similar increase of +1,395% in its final weekend.
Black Panther's jump was similar to A Wrinkle In Time, boosting the movie at the very end by moving money around to get Black Panther over the 700M line, something that would not have happened without Disney fudging.
You may notice that there is indeed a pattern here with Disney, movies close to major milestones, and this practice of fudging. Disney is not alone in doing this, but they are certainly one of the more egregious practitioners of it. Beyond simply insanely large % increases from one week to the next, fudging can also be seen when studios lose lots of theaters, suddenly report more actuals (actual income for a movie) than the estimated gross for that weekend, and more.
Would you be shocked to learn that Disney is fudging the numbers for Endgame's final run as it closes to the the title of #1 grossing movie of all time?
Within the past two weeks, Endgame has lost roughly 25% of their overall theater count, which is a massive hit to any movie's box office numbers. Endgame, though, only reported a decrease that weekend of 32.5%, which for a movie, is practically unheard of. This would be because the numbers are not, unfortunately, accurate. Additionally, Disney has been using the tactic of fudging the international numbers particularly heavy, going from 1.1M internationally one weekend to suddenly jumping to 5.0M weekend* the next weekend with no re-releases or countries added is a clear indicator that the numbers are this point for Endgame are no longer accurate. (*The method of this is slightly more complex and best left to others in the thread to break down.) This isn't to mention the 3M in additional international gross that was randomly found on a Monday after previously reporting a weekend gross of 1M.
None of this is to say that Endgame's initial opening weekend is anything short of spectacular, or that the box office run wasn't impressive, or that Endgame doesn't deserve to be the top grossing film all time. Box Office numbers are a fickle thing. There's rarely a smoking gun for fudging like this, but as the saying goes, where there's enough smoke, there's fire. When the numbers involved come from some of the best accountants in the world and a company that has shown a propensity for fudging in the past, good luck finding the truth.
If you're wondering if Endgame really did beat Avatar, the truth is we'll never really know, but we can certainly can draw a reasonable conclusion. In reality, it is likely that Endgame would have beat Avatar, fudge or not. There was enough weekend over weekend for it to gross enough to put it over the top, but it would have taken longer for it to cross that finish line (a few more weeks at least). Disney, though, wanted to time the announcement with their Comic-Con panel last night that Endgame had crossed the threshold, so the numbers were fudged to make sure that it would have enough gross for them to make the announcement at the panel.
At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter which movie is number one. Both movies are owned by Disney, and there really is no reason why anyone should care beyond intense corporate loyalty. However, if you're wondering why people this week will be suggesting that, at least for now, Endgame is #1* with an asterisk, the reason is fudging.
Interesting! Is that a rare occasion?
