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AnotherDayAnotherDollar

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    The Disney Thread | Iger will be with us until 2026

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by AnotherDayAnotherDollar

    There's little to no chance of DeSantis not being re-elected. Anyone telling you otherwise is either on a bubble or being disingenuous. Disney also holds little to no power on any conversations with him or state officials. At the end of the day we all know Disney can't pick up and move WDW to another state, so they really have no leverage. They can denounce the bill like they did or donate to democrats and not donate to republicans in the state, but if they do the latter they know they'd upset half of their audience too.

     

    DeSantis won, albeit barely, in 2018 when it was a very strong Dem year with a very popular mayor of Tallahassee running for the Democrats. 1st black governor of Florida was being heavily pushed and played in the local media. I still remember the countless and countless "Let's bring it home" posters and flyers with Gillum's face plastered all over it everywhere. And even with all that, DeSantis won. Only way DeSantis loses this year is if - before the election - he gets caught ODed on meth with a male gigolo in a hotel room in Miami like Gillum in 2020. Even ignoring that the party in power historically loses the midterms recent polls have DeSantis up anywhere from 6+ to 20+ points.

     

    If anyone feels confident that DeSantis will lose then they stand to make a LOT of money by betting on an opponent here. Right now you bet 89C to make a dollar on DeSantis, 8C to make a dollar on Christ, 6C on Fried and the other two you'd just be throwing your money away, even more so than if you bet on Christ or Fried.  Likewise, you can just bet completely against him. 11C to make a dollar that anyone but him wins.

    • Like 3

    Super Bowl/Valentine's Weekend Thread | Nile 1.1M Previews, Marry Me 525K

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, dudalb said:

     

    I disagree. I think the move toward streaming is something there is no going back from.

    I think theaters will suffer the biggest permanent drop in ticket sales since the early 1950's, when Televsion did huge damage to theatrical sales.

    Things are never going to go back to normal if my normal you mean per Covid. SOmething with as big a impact as Covid has  always makes permanent changes.

    I think streaming would have taken a big bite of the theatrical audience anyway, but Covid just acclerated the process.

     

     

    I agree. Might be wrong, but I think big tentpole movies (i.e. superhero cape flicks, star wars, avatar, dinos, lotr, etc) will be fine, but most others won't. I think multiplex days are counted. I can see drive ins surviving by being niche and movie theaters surviving by providing a true premium experience to the above tentpole movies (for example Batman is coming out and they make the lobby and theater look like Gotham, Strange comes out they make it look and feel like the Sanctum Santorum, etc).

     

    My personal anecdote I used to go to the movie theaters 2+ times a week before covid and I recently cancelled my AMC sub because I had only been going for the big movies and passing on the rest.

     

    26 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

    At least wait until Elvis and Downton Abbey release. The David O. Russell film in the fall will also be a good test

     

    I do generally agree that COVID accelerated declining trends but literally weeks/months before the pandemic, we had hits like Little Women, 1917, Knives Out. And that summer, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Hell, The Way Back with Affleck opened to 8m the week national lockdown commenced. 

     

    Would those be a hit today though? 2 years, with covid on top of that, is a long time. People's behaviors have changed. That's not to say they can't change back, but I'm not sure they'll be changed back. Plus streamers are spending an exorbitant amount of money. KO2 is going straight to Netflix. A new Predator movie is going straight to Hulu. Peter Pan is going straight to Disney+ and so on.

    Uncharted | February 18, 2022 | Trailer on Page 28!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Avatree said:

    I enjoyed this. I know nothing about the games, other than that people were pissed off about the casting of the two main characters. It definitely takes a while to stop thinking that it's Spider-man, but by the end Spider-man had completely left my mind.

     

    Both Tom & Mark do their usual shtick but it's charismatic. Same can't be said for the female lead "Chloe". I have no idea what accent she was trying to do. British? Australian? Her nationality changed from line to line, it was amusing.

    Also, I think Tom Holland must have demanded in his contract that he must spend minimum 50% of the film with his shirt off.

     

    It's light and fun. Some of the action is ridiculous in a bad way (e.g. the skydiving scene in the trailer, where his feet appear to be gravity boots, completely un believable). Some of the action is ridiculous in an entertaining way, where it completely leans in to its videogame background.

     

    A lot of the film is very by-the-numbers mediocre, but I honestly enjoyed it while it was playing. The last twenty minutes or so was so enjoyable that I'm now going to try the games out.

     

    Way more fun than the new Tomb Raider; it doesn't take itself too seriously.

     

    I will probably have forgotten everything that happened in it by the end of the week, but right now it gets a thumbs up from me.

     

     

    Also - was surprised by the showing being packed out. Thought this would be DOA.

    Won't be topping WARCRAFT that's for sure:sparta:but might actually be a hit?

     

     

    Thanks for the write up.

     

    I would like to see a reaction from someone who actually played the games. When watching the trailer all I could think of was "Not my Drake and Sully" and "I already played this movie". Not to derail too much but that's one of the problem I have with  movie adaptation of video games, which is similar to those old movies -> videogame adaptations that they pulled away from in the more recent years.

    Super Bowl/Valentine's Weekend Thread | Nile 1.1M Previews, Marry Me 525K

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    On 2/12/2022 at 4:10 PM, Napoleon said:

    I hope no more studio merges. Death On Denial is opening at the higher end of adult oriented films since covid, despite being completely dumped. Its biggest star didn’t even do those fluffy late night interviews. Was there even a premiere for the movie? This would never happen when Fox was a studio of its own that would need their movies to make money, they would put every effort into making them reach their full potential at the box office.

     

    I may be the exception here, but I saw a lot of trailers for this movie to the point I was saying, "this same trailer again". I don't think the problem is the lack of marketing, the problem is audience behavior has changed and I'm part of the problem. 10 years ago I would have gone to the theaters to watch this movie. Nowadays I will wait for it to hit streaming. It's part of the reason I cancelled my AMC movie pass. I don't go enough to even take advantage of that and I consider myself a more hardcore moviegoer than the average Joe.

    2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, PenguinXXR said:


    Some of these are…

     

    Interesting. 

    I think that's DOM only

     

    19 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

    You think I overestimated some?

    I'd be VERY surprised to see some of those numbers. Morbius almost at 200MM would be....interesting. Highly unlikely that Spiderverse outsgrosses Strange 2 also, but I mean we are all predicting. There's no right or wrong answer.

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

    It's depressing to look back today on a schedule that I found in my email from mid-November that had the following for Q1 2022.  A complete fucking gutting of the schedule for no reason.  Roughly $750m domestic either removed or pushed from the schedule.  Something like $1.8b+ overall gone.  If you couple this with the mistakes that were make by studios in the last 3 weeks of December, it is really a fucking travesty of leadership among the studios and industry.  

     

     

    Jan. 7th - The 355

     

    Jan. 14th - The Man From Toronto, Deep Water, Scream

     

    Jan. 21st - Operation Fortune, Redeeming Love, The King's Daughter

     

    Jan. 28th - Morbius

     

    Feb. 4th - Moonfall, Jackass Forever, The Black Phone

     

    Feb. 11th - Marry Me, Death on the Nile, The Devil's Light

     

    Feb. 18th - Rumble, Uncharted, Ambulance

     

    Feb. 25th - The Outfit

     

    March 4th - The Batman

     

    March 11th - Turning Red

     

    March 18th - The Unbreakable Boy, The Contractor, Downton Abbey

     

    March 25th - The Lost City

     

    I'm likely part of the problem because the only movie on that list I want to watch in theaters is Batman.

    Eternals | Marvel Studios | Nov 5 2021 | Magnum-Opus by Oscar winner Chloe Zhao - Marvel's first rotten movie | Dips into the 40s on RT, B CinemaScore

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Disney collaborates with Samba TV, so from that alone I have to believe their numbers are legit, especially when coming from Disney+, Hulu, or ESPN+.

     

    https://dmedmedia.disney.com/news/disney-ad-sales-tech-showcase

     

    Quote

    Disney’s collaboration with Samba TV also creates opportunity for Disney Advertising Sales to combine all media assets across one unified cross-platform measurement, servicing the entire purchase funnel.

     

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

     

    That would be nice but first what is the movie going to be called?? Let's start with the official title first.

     

    Avatar --------------------- 

    Not sure about the name, but has Disney ever done a Superbowl teaser for a big movie? Did TFA or TLJ get a Superbowl teaser? They've done montages for Disney+ and maybe movies before, but not sure for a single movie.

     

    I expect the full trailer to be out by the time Dr. Strange 2 hits, but I don't know if Disney has done some 30 second teaser for movies the Superbowl, especially considering NBC is charging some 6.5MM for 30 seconds this year.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Cameron said he'd like to have a 6 hour cut of movies for streaming while having a 2 1/2 theatrical cut. I'm assuming the former would be released outside of the theatrical window, but I'd be so down for that for certain franchises and movies especially if they have a Chapter like structure like Zach Snyder's Justice League. Not sure how financially feasible it'd be for the studios though. I don't know how much an Extended/Director/Ultimate Edition cut would cost.

    MORBIUS | April 1 2022 | Sony | Returns to 1000+ theaters June 3rd because we live in a simulation

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, RiddlerXXR said:

     

    I guess they're hoping the Omicron burn rate will have cases down to a "minimum" by then? Maybe under 30K a day? I don't think it effects the box office one way or another. My OW and DOM estimates remain the same no matter when it releases this year. 

     

    1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

    My prediction for Morbius was $38M OW and $96M DOM at its January date. With this move, I'll drop that down to $28M and $73M.

     

    So what is it? Are you changing it or keeping it the same no matter when it releases?

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