JFox
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Posts posted by JFox
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2 hours ago, Maggie said:
This will surprise. OVER 50M
I wish. That would be the biggest box office surprise in some time.
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2 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:
Some people above thought this was going to be super preview heavy like Star Wars and make around $190M opening weekend.
I think people are just sort of thinking out loud here. There's no hard data out there that's making anyone officially change course one way or the other. The only actual data that gave me pause was presales numbers from @charlie Jatinder
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On 12/11/2021 at 9:31 PM, WittyUsername said:
It’s sounding more and more like this movie might as well be considered the end of Phase 4, but that’s apparently not going to be the case.
That would be pretty early to end Phase 4. I'm terms of actual years gone by but that's because covid delayed everything. Narrative wise that would only leave these titles in Phase 4:
Black Widow
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Eternals
Spider-Man: No Way Home
WandaVision
The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
Loki
What If...?
Hawkeye
I don't know, maybe given the shows that's enough content to be considered a full phase but for some reason it doesn't feel like a lot has happened. I guess that's because the shows are smaller scale and self contained. Same for the film's outside Spider-Man and Doctor Strange.
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Is there going to be a live stre on YouTube for the premiere? Usually there's a placeholder thumbnail hours before but I'm not seeing anything right now....
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I will say I hope they get a teaser out for this earlier than usual. Like in April sometime. Might be good for Marvel Studios to get something out there to get people hyped and shake off all the angst that seems to surround it ever since the unfortunate passing of Chadwick.
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On 12/12/2021 at 4:11 PM, eddyxx said:
Just long enough to get killed off, I hope.
Really??
I think this whole thing will blow over, as it should. There's not a lot of chatter out there about Letitia's vaccine beliefs. At all. Just scoopers trying to make something a story to rile up the most easily riled up.
This is going to be massive next November (hopefully) and I guarantee you Shuri will be a big part of it.
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This should be to Spider-Man: No Way Home what Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was to Star Wars: The Last Jedi but sadly the market clearly isn't ready for that level of business (and there's the HBO Max issue to boot).
I'll definitely be in theatres on the 22nd for this! Sing 2 will probably be my Boxing Day movie. Maybe the other way around, IDK.
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3 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:
@ZackM and @Inceptionzq have posted data for FSS, it’s just hard to get a good idea for that because we mostly only track previews. Presales to walk up ratio will be much higher on Sat than Thurs for instance, but how much? 20% walk up for Thursday vs 60% for Saturday? We just don’t have the data to make good comparisons.Well however it shakes out, appreciate all the work you guys do. Like I said, best in the world!
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2 minutes ago, JFox said:
Right now this is what I have for OW:
Thurs 47
Fri 56.4 (2.2 OD multi)
Sat 58
Sun 48.1
Weekend 209.5
It's a shame because based on that preview number the OW should be a helluva lot bigger.
P.S. I know this contradicts my earlier statement that I had this just under $200M based on charlie jatinder's presales numbers but when I actually do the math I just can't seem to get to that number based on expected preview numbers.
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1 minute ago, Multiverse of XXR said:
In regards to your commentary, I will say just to keep in mind that a lot of this “Covid has changed things” narrative hasn’t shown to apply to this film yet. I’m not saying it won’t come to pass, but as of this moment I haven’t seen anything that would indicate this will have a precipitous drop off in walk ups compared to IW or EG. The most recent data hasn’t shown a slowing in ticket sales and until the MCU behaves like Star Wars, I’m going to continue to work under the idea that it’s not on that level yet.
Fair enough. I mean I could be way off and believe me, I'd be happy to be way off.
I guess what I'd like to know is what different people are seeing for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For me that's the indicator.
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Right now this is what I have for OW:
Thurs 47
Fri 56.4 (2.2 OD multi)
Sat 58
Sun 48.1
Weekend 209.5
It's a shame because based on that preview number the OW should be a helluva lot bigger.
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4 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:
I can't see it being that presale heavy. Star Wars in general is just way more presale heavy than the MCU.
Again, this is a pre-pandemic mantra. I mean if a Star Wars movie opened now then yes it would probably be even more frontloaded than an MCU film today but the way theatre going trends are headed maybe MCU films are now going to play out like Star Wars films did.
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6 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I actually think just the opposite. If there was such a beat-the-spoilers mentality, I'd be seeing far more sellouts than I am currently.
(the film this most reminds me of, aksually, is Infinity War, if with a lot more showtimes, and of course, higher ticket prices)
Well that's a good sign!
I may be asking the obvious here, but do you see the holiday legs booming for this? Despite how the OW plays out?
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Long time lurker here.
With all due respect (and I mean it with the utmost respect because you guys are the best in the world this and I'm just some guy) I don't think there's been enough attention paid to tracking for true Friday, Saturday and Sunday for this film.
I don't know about y'all but, anecdotally, my biggest local theatre isn't screaming $200M opener when I look at seating for the true weekend.
I also had this just missing $200M (despite all the signs pointing to obvious over the mark) when I saw Charlie jatinder's latest presales numbers. Extrapolating from those when comparing to others have me around $198 million.
I think it's safe to say that patterns are changing. For awhile now we've been able to track for previews and have a decently reliable set of "rules" to use to glean a basic framework for the OW from that (ie. With most Marvel movies you could give an OD multi of 3, Saturday +20% of true Friday etc etc). I don't know if that's going to be the case anymore. Of course the coming preview number points to an OW well over $200M but that is based on pre-pandemic rules.
Of course having said all this I can still easily see it going over $200M. Not preaching gloom and doom here. Just trying to adjust my internal box office calculator if you will. I've got to throw all the old equations out the window at this point.
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Marry Me | February 11, 2022 in Theaters and on Peacock | Universal | Jennifer Lopez, Owen Wilson, Maluma
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
So depressing.