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21C

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    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

    Hey very well may or may not have contacts and is almost certainly a theater owner, yes, but his inside takes on movies have been extremely misleading or flat out wrong is the thing. If they weren't we'd be handing Best Picture to Ghostbusters: Afterlife or Dial of Destiny  Just stating for the record why I am skeptical, it's not just a personality thing. Also I know he has like 20 alts reading these posts to post about on Twitter so hi EC!!!

    Him hearing certain things about how movies might be received or having certain opinions about them does not deny anything. Studio execs most certainly believed Dial of Destiny was gonna be a huge hit, hence why they made it and promoted it like they did. 

    And yeah I wouldn't take this "WGA strike is over" thing to the bank right now either because even if it's  from a studio person, studio people have fallen over their dicks even in the trades, but it's at least something. 

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    7 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


    He might be right, but I guarantee you he’s guessing. 
     

    A broken clock twice a day, etc etc

    I still do not know why you think the idea that a dude that has gone to Cinemacon every year, sees movies even before the press watches them, and is extremely likely either a theater owner or someone somewhere in management (made pretty obvious by how he doesn't sympathize with working class at all) might have some contacts within the studio system. There is quite literally nothing insane about someone like him being able to have pals over there. 

    He's an unlikeable person. Studio people are unlikeable too. The idea he might be friends with some studio people does not sound far fetched at all and would actually explain a  lot of his behavior. 

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    41 minutes ago, darkangelfire said:

    I have seen a lot of people convinced that if this happens the sag strike will be settled within a week, and people on Twitter need a dose of reality.

    The sag want an 11 percent increase to minimums in the first year and a 2 percent revenue share, these demands are more extreme to the ceos than the writers demands and they have yet to begin negotiations.

    So even if by some miracle the writers strike is resolved tomorrow the actors are still far behind.

    So things are going to be bad for the foreseeable future, especially if the wga get their provisions that their not working if  a strike is ongoing with a sister union, no one is going to be working for a while.

    People online are just so reactionary and its honestly a bit tiring.

    They're 100% not gonna get that in any sort of way lol That honest to god seems like something they added expecting it to be removed. I don't even think it's legal.

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    2 hours ago, ZeroHour said:

    I don't think the argument that these companies are only slightly inconvenienced by the strikes holds up. It's true that Amazon and Apple could never make another scripted show or movie again and wouldn't be affected much, but that's really not true for the rest of these companies. Paramount, Netflix, WBD, Disney, Sony, etc. all depend on creating new scripted content to drive their businesses to one extent or another. Even Disney who has very lucrative theme park and cruise businesses depends on their IP to drive interest in those parts of the company. Shareholders and Wall Street do not actually like seeing these companies bleed money and they're not just going to think "oh well, the stocks will all just bounce back when the strikes end" because they know the longer this takes to resolve, the longer the gap will be between when these companies run out of fresh content and when the content they create post-strikes is ready to deliver. Most of these companies are trying to hike up the cost of their streaming services right now and that's not going to go well if they can't deliver fresh hit shows regularly. Even Netflix started to bleed subscribers until Stranger Things 4 saved their butts and they got the hit machine rolling again post-COVID. And if you think losing money in streaming can't cost someone their job, you should check in on how Bob Chapek is doing these days.

    The reasons Chapek got fired are faaar messier and more complex than simply the streaming numbers thing; it's true that didn't help but what truly killed his regime was the gigantic culture clash between the ideas he tried to implement vs. the way that it contradicted basically everything that it had built up prior and pissed off a lot of other executives as well as creatives in the process. 

    And again: Every single CEO here has plausible deniability because of the fact they're negotiating with the AMPTP. They can just point the fingers to someone else and say they had to go along with the plan, so no, they're not gonna get punished, not even in the slightest. 

     

     

    2 hours ago, ZeroHour said:

    Yes, David Zaslav and Bob Iger are not going to lose their homes or stop being 1 percenters no matter how this resolves itself, even in the unlikely event it cost one of them their job. But their job is to increase their companies' earnings and failing to do that because they can't make new things is not merely inconvenient. It seems silly to have to say, but collective action works. There's a long history of it! Will the WGA and SAG be able to hold out long enough to get terms they can live with? That's impossible to say from the outside, and yes, a lot of people are suffering. But acting like the CEOs can just say "let them eat cake" indefinitely while their film slates, streaming services, and cable lineups all dry up is not realistic.

    Do I think that several CEOs probably want this to end today already? Probably and that it's being a massive massive headache for them. Do I also think that if it doesn't, they will be ultimately completely unpunished? Probably. Again, one side here is losing their houses and being evicted, while the other is merely screaming at people over the phone in their mansions. My point isn't that the AMPTP isn't hurting, of course it is, but that it's not hurting nearly as much as the WGA, SAG and the Hollywood workers; which immediately puts them all on a stronger position, even if it's still a less than ideal and stressful one.

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    3 hours ago, FunkMiller said:

     

    Not once did I suggest they weren't hurting because of the strikes. But you seem keen on pushing a narrative that the writers can't possibly carry on with this much longer, and that they'll have to buckle, because of how much damage is being done to them financially. What you're failing to take into account is how badly this was being done to them before the strikes started. If things are awful for them anyway, why would they en masse agree to make things even worse for themselves heading into the future? They believe their careers are dead if they capitulate to studio demands anyway... so why exactly would they buckle now?

     

    And yes... directly quoting from the trades that are demonstrably acting as mouthpieces for the studios isn't the best way to make an argument. I frankly believe very little in any reports they produce.

    I mean instead of taking them at their word you can just read the article and check the sources they cite which are legitimate. The writers and actors in the QRTs aren't denying the record numbers of evictions either; some of them are actually sharing their experiences over how they're gonna get evicted. Hollywood workers are very much struggling and yes, they are struggling more than they did pre-strike. They are also gonna struggle more as this drags on. 
     

     

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted

    2 hours ago, FunkMiller said:

     

    Do you honestly think some writers weren't facing this kind of thing before the strikes started? It's the whole reason for them to be happening in the first place

     

    If anything, it seems to me like there are funds out there that are supporting the writers who would otherwise be in extreme financial jeopardy if the strikes hadn't happened.

     

    Every day that goes by does not make the writers weaker. They were as weak as they could possibly be before the strikes started.

     

    We've reached the point now where I think the writers would rather see the whole thing collapse, rather than continue with the terrible terms they've been offered. And I think the financial support will continue to grow from people who also see how awful the studio's attitude is.

    https://twitter.com/THR/status/1699159420067086629?t=eKPkeIW08OohDpfJy2A0vw&s=19

      

    (Yeah, I know, trades are friends with the studios blah blah blah All true, but the article is well sourced and seems to be correct)

     The notion that people aren't hurting because of the strike and that they are in fact better off at the moment is, no offense, absolutely delusional.  The hurt is real, not just to SAG and WGA members but below the line workers (who, may I add, are being absolutely and totally screwed at the moment) 

      

    While I'm  sure the donations must have be helping a bit, they don't seem to be helping nearly enough to get the industry workers living comfortably or as if nothing is happening.  

     

    Also the whole "would rather burn the entire town down" is nice and one that I have no doubt many WGA members and SAG members share... it's also one I have no doubt that if you were ever to do an actual poll on it it'd come out that its only a minority that actually truly mean it. People are materially hurting now more than ever. They were hurting before the strikes; true.  They're hurting even more now.  Getting too swept up by the twitter bravado is a mistake.

     

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    3 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:


    Putting aside company stock numbers, they’re just flat out losing money. 
     

    WB alone lost 300-500m over the summer (their numbers). The cost of agreeing to the WGA’s asks is in the 430m range, for three years. One studio alone has already neared that total.
     

    And this while they still had some new movies being released. They’ll still have movies coming out through the end of the year, but then things get pretty thin for them. And features take awhile to get made. On the TV side, they’ve already lost essentially a whole season of advertising. 

     

    The longer this goes on, the more catastrophic the revenue loss will be. 

    My point isn't to say that the studios aren't being affected, they absolutely are, and it's no doubt generating a headache in the minds of all the CEOs, but:
    A headache is way, waaaay different than straight-up losing your house and barely having any money to afford food, which is the situation many WGA and SAG members already find themselves in and will find themselves in, in the coming months. This is intensified by the fact that for Apple and Amazon it's not even a headache because those two companies are too big to care about a few months lost of their entertainment division that much. 

    That is the main reason I think that the AMPTP stands stronger over here. Are they being evil and morally reprehensible? Absolutely. Is there probably a ton of squabbling inside the ranks of the AMPTP with all their different business models that's delaying this unnecessarily, oposed to it being some calculated plan? Absolutely as well. Does every single one of their members at the end of the day sleep well at night and well-fed in multi-million dollar homes? That is also true, which you positively cannot say about most members of SAG and the WGA. 

    I do not see how the WGA and SAG can win this if the AMPTP stays united. A strike is supposed to be a self-harming practice in order to harm the other party as well, but the longer the strike goes on, the more obvious it seems that the WGA and SAG are harming themselves more than they are actually harming the studios. It's like they're biting them with all they have and destroying their mouths in the process while at most leaving some bite marks in the studio's necks instead of actually harming them proportionately.

    If no movement is made on the next 6 weeks (probably in the form of some studio doing some movement to break away from the AMPTP if it's even possible, which is clearly what the WGA is desperate for someone in the AMPTP to do) I think it'd be more than advisable for both unions to present proposals in which they actually compromise significantly more and strip away more of their armor.  It sucks, and it shouldn't be that way, but if it lasts that long it'd come to that eventually, so they might as well do it sooner rather than letting their members starve for many more months. 

    I remember that when that Deadline article came out many WGA and SAG members were accusing execs of bluffing over the "losing their houses" bit; it is now clear they were not bluffing. And it was perhaps a mistake for both unions to think they were.

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    11 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


    While I’m sure a great many writers and actors would be delighted if the CEOs got ditched, I haven't heard anyone mention that as a plan or hope for resolving the strike. They’re very blunt: they expect the studios to continue losing money until they choose to make a deal. They’re not expecting Wall Street to react altruistically, they’re expecting them to (at some point) realize how much money they’ll keep losing until they negotiate a deal. 

    That is what I'm talking about though: They expect that the quarterly earnings reports will be so dire Wall Street will punish the execs in some way and that the execs are scared of that, when in reality, that actually does not seem likely to happen. Stock price might go down but even if it does they can brush it off because it'll go back up once the strikes are done, like it did with COVID shutdowns. The strikes are an  annoyance to execs, they're not existential, which is what automatically keeps putting the studios in a stronger position.

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted

    Also, I will say this:

    A lot of the actors and writers hopes for winning seem completely dependant on this idea that the investors and stockholders will be the heroes in this and that they'll look at the studios and go "😠Why aren't you treating workers better? Very very vad Mr. Iger/Sarandos/Zaslav/Cook/etc," and whip out their belt and fire them when that has always seemed like an incredibly far-fetched, copium-induced scenario lmao

    Yeah, I know there's that  one analyst that said something along those lines a few weeks ago but... come on, let's not be delusional, he can complain about it but even he didn't say anything about possibly demanding the firing of any of these execs lmao. 

    Investors know that the execs are fighting almost exclusively out of greed, and you know what Wall Street likes very very much? Greed. Even if they personally can gossip about how maybe they shouldn't do that, the track record of most of these execs speaks for itself. They are greedy, and investors have benefitted from that greed far too much over years and years to even contemplate the idea of firing them over this.

    You think they're gonna fire Iger after they spent 2 years almost begging in their hands and knees to come back and when they have no good replacement for him lined up yet? Come on. You think they're gonna fire Zaslav when he's been doing /everything/ they wanted him to do against PR and everything else,  and when he's the man that turned Discovery into an entertainment empire so large and vast that it was able to buy Warner Bros? Again, come on. Same applies to Sarandos, same applies to most other executives.

    These people are not going to be punished in any way. It's better to let go of that notion.  There is not gonna be some magical event that happens here that'll save the writers and actors. And even if they investors get mega annoyed with the strike it's not like they can easily point the finger at anybody. All execs, by negotiating through the AMPTP, have plausible deniability in which they can't be held individually  responsible for the state of the strikes. I'm not saying it doesn't have an impact on the execs, having to reshuffle that many things around is more work for them and that sucks, but they're not under this threat of being fired which so many on SAG and the WGA seem to think they are. 

    • Like 1

    WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

    in The Speakeasy

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    3 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


    Why would they be in a really screwed and weakened position? The bill would help down the road for future strikes (if it passes), and it could alleviate some financial pain if this strike goes really long, but it’s not the kind of thing that will make or break the whole thing. 
     

    Here’s some perspective on that Wrap nonsense:

     

    I mean... they already are in a weak position though. Anecdotal, but I've read lots of tweets from writers saying they've had to start selling their houses or are getting more and more desperate financially by the day to the point morale is kinda going down. It is not insane for me that 4 more months of this could just spell doom for them. Far too many people are hurting; and as much as the studios are ""hurting"", truth of the matter is that Iger, Zaslav, Sarandos, etc are probably personally perfectly comfortable at the moment. The effects of the strike are annoying/stressful for them, but not existential in the way that for most members of the WGA and SAG is. 

    Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

    What is going on here on this thread? This forum has been dogpiling on the DCEU and CBM's  in general  and the industry buzz is horrible for this movie yet there is this weird defense of this movie all of a sudden. 

    The first one was WBD's third highest grossing film of all time when absolutely no one expected it to even break even and everyone expected it to flop. That's the reason.

    • Like 2

    Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 21C

    1 hour ago, Youngstar said:

     

    I find ViewerAnon absolutely and totally insufferable lmao A total and absolute jackass with absolutely nothing meaningful to say about anything that only gets clout because he goes to test screenings and leaks info. Lowest of the low in terms of internet clout. Why anyone would listen to his opinions about anything is beyond me. 

    • Like 3

    Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

    Man all this talk about DC box office success reminds me of when the first Flash teaser came out and people were projecting a billion. I’m getting Nam Flashbacks, if only it became reality.
     

    But alas, I KNOW the fan base won’t show up for this one either. 100% Guaranteed

    The first Aquaman did not make its money because of any fanbase lol

    • Like 4
    • ...wtf 1

    Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

    Back then the DCEU still had potential, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad were huge hits, and while Justice League flopped hard it still made $660m WW, which is double what the highest grossing recent DCEU movies made.

     

    None of the last 8 DC movies have done more than $400m WW, the only one that came close to that mark was Black Adam which was carried by the Rock.

     

    Also, China was firing on all cylinders 2014-2019, whereas now the market is nothing for Hollywood, and it's highly unlikely it does over $100m there.

     

    Also, the superhero/CBM craze was real in 2018-2019, and Dark Phoenix was the only one significant that flopped during that period. 8 of them hit a billion during that period, whereas no CBM has hit a billion post-COVID except No Way Home. 

     

    ER is significantly less favorable nowadays, many mediocre CBMs have flopped recently, and the production was, by all accounts, a trainwreck so yeah I'm really not optimistic on this one.

    I am not saying that it is a guarantee that this film will do well. I think it'll either be a massive flop or a giant hit, but it is extremely silly to act like it flopping is set in stone when the fact that the first one made a billion dollars and is WBD's #3 highest grossing film is something that can't and shouldn't be ignored, especially considering how this one is coming out in the same season but with even less direct competition than what the first one had. 

    Also no one that watched the first Aquaman did so for the DCEU lol I'll say it again, the main factor that made the first one succesful was "water looks cool". It was a whole theme park ride released in the middle of cold December. This film could very very well be a hit again.

    • Like 3
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