[laguy's Winter Game - Week 11 Questions (Due Thurs., 12/12 at 11:59 PM PST)]

1. Will The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug make more than $90M? NO

2. Will The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug make less than $15M during previews and midnight screenings? YES

3. Will The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug make at least 3 times what Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas makes? NO

4. Will Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas make more than $33M? YES

5. Will Frozen drop less than 36%?  YES

6. Will Saving Mr. Banks have a per theater average of more than $36,000? NO

7. Will American Hustle make more than Saving Mr. Banks? NO 

8. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire drop more than 40%? YES

9. Excluding films that are increasing in theater counts, will any film drop less than 25%? NO

10. Will Philomena have a better drop than Dallas Buyers Club? NO

Bonus #1) How much will The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug make on Friday (including midnight previews)? 37,91 MLN

Bonus #2) How much will The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug gross this weekend? 86,781 MLN

Bonus #3) How much will Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas gross? 34,12 MLN

Bonus #4) How much will films #2-#5 combine to make over the 3-day weekend (including any Thursday previews)? 68,456 MLN

Bonus #5) What will American Hustle’s per theater average be? 68000$

[Box Office League Main Thread - Week 11 results available, week 12 questions posted!]

FUCK YEAHHHHH!

[laguy's Winter Game - Week 10 Questions (Due Thurs., 12/05 at 11:59 PM PST)]

All questions are worth 1,000 points, unless otherwise specified.

All answers are due by Thursday at 11:59 pm (PST).

All questions pertain to the top 12 films of the (3-day) weekend.

1. Will Frozen make at least $7M more than The Hunger Games: Catching Fire? NO

2. Will Frozen fall less than 46%? NO

3. Will Out of the Furnace make more than $10M? NO

4. Will Homefront make more than Delivery Man? YES

5. Will The Best Man Holiday fall less than 35%? NO

6. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire have a Friday increase of more than 150%? NO

7. Will at least one film have a Saturday increase of at least 100%? YES

8. Will Dallas Buyers Club fall less than 42% on Sunday? YES

9. Will Inside Llewyn Davis have a per theater average of more than $40,000? YES

10. Will any film drop more than 60%? YES

8/10 Correct = 4,000 bonus points

9/10 Correct = 6,000 bonus points

10/10 Correct = 8,000 bonus points

Bonus #1) How much will Out of the Furnace gross? (Please use at least 2 decimal places.) 6,791 MLN

Bonus #2) What will be in positions:

3) OUT OF THE FURNACE

7) DELIVERY MAN

8) THE BOOK THIEF

10) BLACK NATIVITY

12) GRAVITY

 

2,000 points each. 5,000 point bonus if you get 5/5 correct.

[laguy's Winter Game - And the winner is...]

 

CURRENT SCORE TOTALS (AS OF 11/24):

1. Goffe - 110,000
2. Tower - 105,000
3. Chasmmi - 95,000
3. laguy03 - 95,000
5. bcf26 - 93,000
6. #ED - 90,000
7. Filmovie - 88,000
8. Blankments - 84,000
9. Catching Iceroll - 82,000
10. Rocket Olive - 81,000
11. Telemachos - 79,000
12. glassfairy - 76,000
13. Films - 70,000
14. grey ghost - 69,000
14. k1stpierre - 69,000
16. Kalo21 - 68,000
17. Michael Gary Scott - 67,000
18. baumer - 59,000
18. Cmasterclay - 59,000
20. alisson23 - 56,000
21. Chewy - 54,000
22. MovieMan89 - 47,000
23. Gizmo - 46,000
24. CJohn - 17,000
25. Alfred - 15,000

 

 

CURRENT SCORES TOTALS (AS OF 12/1):

 

1. Goffe - 110,000

2. Tower - 105,000

3. chasmmi - 95,000

3. laguy03 - 95,000

5. bcf26 - 93,000

6. #ED - 90,000

7. Filmovie - 88,000

8. Blankments - 84,000

9. Catching Iceroll - 82,000

10. Rocket Olive - 81,000

11. Telemachos - 79,000

12. glassfairy - 76,000

13. Films - 70,000

14. grey ghost - 69,000

14. k1stpierre - 69,000

16. Kalo21 - 68,000

17. Michael Gary Scott - 67,000

18. baumer - 59,000

18. Cmasterclay - 59,000

20. alisson23 - 56,000

21. Chewy - 54,000

22. MovieMan89 - 47,000

23. Gizmo - 46,000

24. CJohn - 17,000

25. Alfred - 15,000

 

I think you posted old totals: they're the same of last week

[laguy's Winter Game - Week 9 Questions (Due Thurs., 11/28 at 11:59 PM PST)]

All questions are worth 1,000 points, unless otherwise specified.All answers are due by Thursday at 11:59 pm (PST).All questions pertain to the top 12 films of the weekend.1. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire drop more than 67%? NO2. Will Homefront make more than $12M? NO3. Will Black Nativity make more than $9M? NO4. Will Thor: The Dark World fall less than 38%? YE5. Will Free Birds fall more than 10%? YE6. Will at least 3 films increase?7. Will Dallas Buyers Club remain in the Top 10? NO8. Will any film increase by at least 175% on Friday? NO9. Will any film fall less than 35% on Sunday? YE10. Are you thankful that you can give any answer to this question and get 1,000 points no matter what your answer is?  NO8/10 Correct = 4,000 bonus points9/10 Correct = 6,000 bonus points10/10 Correct = 8,000 bonus pointsBonus #1) How much will the Top 5 films gross, combined? (Please use at least 2 decimal places.) [5,000 points]  156,23 MLNBonus #2) How much will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire drop, percentage-wise? (Please use at least 2 decimal places.) [5,000 points]-57,46%

[Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all]

I think the share price fall will have more to do with the conversion than anything else. A 10% fall in share prices is not something a LionsGate can afford to have every single time.

 

Did it fall 10%? 

[Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all]

So... over/under on when we get the announcement of 3D Conversion for MJ1 and MJ2. I say mid-January.

 

IMO it isn't necessarily happening

[Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all]

Well, 3 mln out of 158 is a bad overstimation but Lionsgate did it for THG too.

 

And FOX is worse:

SWep2: 86 mln estimated, 80 mln actuals

Xmen3: 107 mln estimated (Yeah, not 103: that was revised the day after), 103 actuals

[Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all]

Does someone know official saturday estimates?

[Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all]

This is barely the 2D OW RECORD

[Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all]

When do we get the actual Saturday figures?

 In about 6 hours

 

 

With a DH1's like path 375 mln is done.

[THG Catching Fire $25.25m Thursday Previews]

I think this has a shot at 50 mill Friday. 68-73 mill OD imo.

68-73 OD mln?

 

If it does 68 mln OD, it means no more than 45 on Saturday. A disappointment.

 

 

I'll go for 77-78 mln OD

[THG Catching Fire $25.25m Thursday Previews]

Now I expect at least 78 mln OD

[THG Catching Fire $25.25m Thursday Previews]

Estimated Top 25 Midnight Grosses of All-Time (as of today)

Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

[*]

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: $43.5 million (47.7 percent)

[*]

The Dark Knight Rises: $30.6 million (40.4 percent)

[*]

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 30.4 mln

[*]

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1: $30.25 million (42.2 percent)

[*]

The Twiilght Saga: Eclipse: $30.1 million (43.9 percent)

[*]

The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $26.27 million (36.1 percent)

[*]

The Hunger Games – Catching Fire $25.25 million

[*]

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1: $24 million (38.9 percent)

[*]

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: $22.8 million (39.2 percent)

[*]

The Hunger Games: $19.735 million (29.3 percent)

[*]

Marvel's The Avengers: $18.7 million (23.1 percent)

[*]

The Dark Knight: $18.5 million (27.5 percent)

[*]

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith: $16.9 million (33.8 percent)

[*]

Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen: $16.8 million (27.1 percent)

[*]

Iron Man 3 15.6 mln

[*]

The Hobbit – Un unexpected journey 13 mln

[*]

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $12 million (27.1 percent)

[*]

The Hangover Part II: $10.4 million (32.9 percent)

[*]

Spider-Man 3: $10 million (16.7 percent)

[*]

Man of Steel 9 mln

[laguy's Winter Game - SOTM #2 (Due this Thursday at 11:59 PM PST)]

1. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire do more than $30 mill from Thursday sneaks/midnight screenings? YES2. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire make at least $72.5 mill OD (including previews)? YES3. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire make at least $175 mill OW? NO4. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire have a Saturday drop of less than 38%? ABSTAIN

5. If you add up THG: Catching Fire's grosses from Monday through Thursday of next week add up to at least half of THG's Catching Fire's opening day (including previews)? YES

[laguy's Winter Game - Week 8 Questions (Due Thurs., 11/21 at 11:59 PM PST)]

1. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire have a per theater average of at least $40,000? YES

2. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire’s opening day (including previews & midnight grosses) be more than the combined grosses of films #2-#10 for the entire weekend? YES

3. Will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire have a Sunday drop of more than 31%? NO

4. Will Delivery Man debut at #2? NO

5. Will Thor: The Dark World have a Friday increase of more than 125%? YES

6. Will The Best Man Holiday fall more than 48%? YES

7. Will Free Birds have a better drop than Last Vegas? NO

8. Will Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa fall less than 27%? NO

9. Will Captain Phillips remain in the Top 10? YES

10. Will any film drop less than 20%? YES

Bonus #1) How much will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire gross this weekend? 173,556 MLN

Bonus #2) How much will THG: Catching Fire drop on Saturday, percentage-wise? -37,956%

Bonus #3) How much will The Hunger Games: Catching Fire gross on Sunday? 37,234 MLN

Bonus #4) Which film will have the worst drop in the Top 15? Ender's Game

Bonus #5) Excluding films that are adding theaters, which film will have the best drop this weekend? Last Vegas

[laguy's Winter Game - And the winner is...]

I think that now this preseason question has its answer.

 

2. Will at least three films gross more than $37.5M opening day?
NO

[laguy's Winter Game - Week 7 Questions (Due Thurs., 11/14 at 11:59 PM PST)]

1. Will The Best Man Holiday have an opening weekend gross within $30M of Thor: The Dark World’’s 2^nd weekend gross? YES

2. Will Thor: The Dark World drop less than 53%? NO

3. Will Nebraska have a per theater average of at least $37,000? NO 

4. Will 12 Years a Slave make more than Free Birds? NO

5. Will Gravity have a Saturday increase of at least 70%? NO

6. Will Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa have a Saturday increase of at least 45%? NO

7. Will Captain Phillips drop less than 28%? YES

8. Will Last Vegas drop less than 30%? YES

9. Will any film drop by more than 60%? NO

10. Will at least 3 films have an increase this weekend? NO

 
8/10 Correct = 4,000 bonus points
9/10 Correct = 6,000 bonus points
10/10 Correct = 8,000 bonus points

Bonus #1) How much will The Best Man Holiday gross this weekend? 22,234 MLN

Bonus #2) What finishes in spots:

4. Last Vegas

5. Jackass

7. 12 Years

9. Phillips

11. Cloudy 2

[laguy's Winter Game - Week 6 Questions (Due Thurs., 11/07 at 11:59 PM PST)]

1. Will Thor: The Dark World have an opening weekend of more than $90M? YES
2. Will Thor: The Dark World make at least $8M during midnight screenings (including Thursday preview showings)? YES
3. Will Thor: The Dark World make less than $35M on opening day (including previews & midnight showings)? NO
4. Will Thor: The Dark World have a Saturday decrease of less than 10%? NO
5. Will Thor: The Dark World have a Sunday decrease of more than 29%? YES
6. Will Ender’s Game fall less than 49%? NO
7. Will Last Vegas make more than Free Birds? YES
8. Will 12 Years a Slave be one of the top 5 grossing films? NO
9. Will Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa fall less than 33%? NO
10. Will Carrie remain in the top 10? NO

Bonus #1) How much will Thor: The Dark World gross this weekend? 97,012 MLN
Bonus #2) How much will Thor: The Dark World gross on Friday (including previews)? 39,167 MLN
Bonus #3) How much will Thor: The Dark World gross on Saturday? (Use at least 2 decimal places.) 34,522 MLN
Bonus #4) How much will Thor: The Dark World gross on Sunday? (Use at least 2 decimal places.) 23,440 MLN
Bonus #5) Excluding films that are increasing in theater count, which film will have the best decrease? [Phillips

[Possible Friday #s from boxoffice.com]

Still no reliable number at this hour. WTF is happening?

[laguy's Winter Game - Week 5 Questions (Due Thurs., 10/31 at 11:59 PM PST)]

1. Will Ender’s Game debut at #1? YES

2. Will at least 2 films gross at least $20M this weekend? NO

3. Will Last Vegas make at least $16M? NO

4. Will Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa fall less than 53%? NO

5. Will The Counselor make more than Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2? NO

6. Will Gravity fall less than 27%? NO

7. Will Captain Phillips have a Saturday increase of at least 43%?  YES

8. Will Enough Said fall less than 15%? YES

9. Will 12 Years a Slave increase by at least 130%? NO

10. Will the Top 3 films combine to make at least $55M? YES

Bonus #1) How much will Ender’s Game, Free Birds, and Last Vegas gross this weekend (combined)? 58,000 MLN
Bonus #2) What finishes in spots:

2. FREE BIRDS

3. JACKASS

4. LAST VEGAS

5. GRAVITY

10. CARRIE

[laguy's Winter Game - And the winner is...]

Answer for Bonus 2 should be We are the millers, or not?

 

It dropped 21.7%

[Thursday numbers (page 2) and Bad GrandPa - 1,4 mln MIDNIGHT]

JACKASS 3D made 2.5 mln during midnight, so, if it follows the trend we should have 27-29 mln Weekend

[Thursday numbers (page 2) and Bad GrandPa - 1,4 mln MIDNIGHT]

That's very good!

 

 

http://www.deadline.com/2013/10/finke-jackass-bad-grandpa-kicks-up-giant-1-4m-from-late-shows/

[laguy's Winter Game - And the winner is...]

Wait, Jack Ryan is not out 

 

It had my 16th position, but now that there's no Monuments Men I suppose it will count. And there's no way it will be in the top 15 after 4 days of release. Shit!