stripe
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Posts posted by stripe
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Tentpoles are doing fine this May, but it's really sad to see everything else bombing. Hipnotic, Book Club...
Right now, May has grossed close to 500M, but I am unsure the month will reach 800M
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I have a hunch that FastX BO could probably mirror Dead Men Tell No Tales. If I remember right, there was the sensation it was going to drop harder than it finally did.
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9 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
$216,935,282
That was massive. It will be hard to reach that after 80M 5day
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Nice! How much did Fast9 gross in China?
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4.55M would mean just 36% drop against last week's Wednesday
Also, around 29% drop from Tuesday
Possible scenarios for Thursday
30% drop - 3.2M25% drop - 3.41M (TGM dropped around that against JWD)
20% drop - 3.64M
15% drop - 3.85M (Thor4/MoM dropped around that against Nope and TGM)
10% drop - 4.1M
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17 hours ago, Sophie said:
Wait, what's the 9th? What do you think of Fast X's chances? If it has a Dom total of about 160 and a dom/os split of about 22/78 (as per ow projections), then that should let it just crawl past 700M.
9th would be the surprising hit. For me, something less probable like Oppenheimer, Barbie, Elementals, Haunted Mansion, or a film that comes out of nowhere. Many years there is a movie like this
2019: Joker, Ne Zha
2018: Bohemian Rhapsody
2017: Wolf Warrior, It
I am quite unsure about Fast X. OS markets are not as strong as few years ago. Anyways, I would put it in the same group as HG, Dune, or Spider-man.
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Little Mermaid, Indy and MI7 are all three in a strong position to reach 700M.
Also, I can easily picture 2/3 of Flash / Marvels / Aquaman over that mark.
Add one overperformer (HG, Dune, Spider-man, Meg, Wish) and a surprising hit.
So gonna predict 9 movies over 700M
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14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Fast X MTC2 previews(T-3) - 42174/621403 634544.95 4174 shows +6262
Good boost at both MTC. Let us hop it sustains.
Are you more confident about it outgrossing Fast9 previews?
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First reviews are in for this, and they are very strong. Possible breakout? If it connects like Bridesmaids or Crazy Rich Asians, watch out!
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/joy_ride_2023
100% fresh - 8.2 with 13 reviews. -
Close to 5M is good.
Headed for something around 232-233M by Thursday. Anything over this would be great
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36 minutes ago, JustWatching said:
Huge! Some have already pointed these achievements, but it is great to see them together
Over AMQ domestic total in just 10 days despite only opening 12M more
2nd best second weekend hold for an MCU film
9th best 2nd weekend drop for a 100M+ opener
Over MoM 2nd weekend gross-
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4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Depending on family size, if seen during a matinee or cheap Tuesday with a family of four... It's same or less to see it in a theater in Pittsburgh. So, no. Disagree. And, someone just mentioned that it's actually $30. If it's $30, actually family of 5 matinee is cheaper still. And, again, this had little to no impact on Rise of Gru and Puss and Boots. We already have that data to fall back on. It will have little to no impact.
Hope you are right. Anyways, I think it would be healthier for the industry to give movies a longer exclusive life in theaters.
And I really dislike that this strategy seems to focus just on animated films. They deserve more respect-
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7 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:
Isn't AIR more of a Glass Onion scenario where the owner genuinely bought it to be a streaming focused product?
Didnt know that!
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23 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
We saw with Rise of Gru and others that has little impact. Will cost $20+ maybe even $25+ to rent and have for like 24 to 48 hours. No big deal. Unless I'm misunderstanding this and it's going to be on Peacock free if you pay for that streaming service or have Xfinity with which it's included...
Purchase for $20-25 is still cheaper than go to a theater with all family. As I said, it's not just that this can affect SMB legs. It's the message you send to audience of future family films that are not juggernaut tentpoles like SMB or Minions.
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25 minutes ago, GambitPool said:
You'd think studios would start course correcting after Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar 2 proved legs still matter.
It's as if they don't care about animated anymore.
They don't learn. Another stupid example: AIR is already on streaming for free here in Spain. -
1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:
Stupid decision!!
Not only because they damage late legs for SMB, but also because the audience gets a dangerous message: "it's not necessary to go to cinemas. You can wait just two months and see the movie for less in your home". It's something that especially hurts upcoming animated releases, just when the genre was slowly recovering.
We need to return to longer windows for theatrical runs!
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Two days to Cannes premiere...
Crossing fingers it gets strong reactions! Also, looking forward what they say about John Williams score.
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4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
It’s wild you think over 3x could actually happen looking at the summer slate but ok then. Even if it had a barren wasteland for its run, 3.3x for a CBM sequel would be INSANE. No way.
But even if I am totally wrong there, no way nothing does 400 between Spidey, Mermaid, Mission, Barbie, even Indy in a best case scenario. Unless all of them are big turds
Not every CBM follows the same pattern.
Unless something very strange occurs, 3x will happen. If a film connects emotionally with GA like Guardians3 is doing, it's time to forget about the conventional CBM boxoffice rules.
I wouldn't be surprised if Guardians3 manages to drop 40% next weekend or even less, despite the loss of PLF to FastX.
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Only Indy and Mermaid are viable contenders to Guardians3 for biggest film of the summer.
Anyways, it's totally fine if Guardians3 ends winning. I prefer a healthy Summer with 5-6 300M+ (Guardians, Flash, Across SV, Indy, Mermaid, MI7), 3-4 possible 200M (Barbie, Meg2, Elemental, Oppenheimer) and strong potential for FastX, No Hard Feelings, Boogeyman, Roby Gillman, Haunted Mansion and TMNT. Most of them could hit 100M+.
Last year we had Maverick, but only 15 Summer movies grossed more than 30M. This has to change.
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As noted by Shawn, Transformers might have a painful domestic run similar to one of the last two Terminator sequels. Dark Fate grossed 62M in November'19 and Genisys 90M in July'15. No matter the quality, il looks like a big part of the audience already has lost interest in the saga.
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23 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
year / weekend / overall gross
2023 / May 05 - May 07 / $159,831,692
2022 / May 06 - May 08 / $222,333,899
WINS
2023: 15 weekends
2022: 03 weekends
Upcoming weekend will be a closer race. 2023 has to surpasse 91.7M overall gross to win.
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4 minutes ago, Bordlove said:
So 1 billion is happening?
Not even 850M is still guaranteed...
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50 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
Early insider/scooperbro word on those have been very good. Those same circles raved about Guardians 3, and now we're about to find out the audience agreed with that, so they're likely right on those Disney+ series as well.
great news. This could help increase hype for The Marvels.
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2 hours ago, Krissykins said:
GOTG3 does have the benefit of nothing notable opening on its second weekend. I’m also guessing it didn’t lose a single PLF on Thursday to another film having previews?
That will explain why it’s avoiding the 60% drops the crowded March films had. As well as the WOM.
The next films to have this benefit will be Flash and Indiana Jones I think?
Lack of competition surely helps, but I feel that the strong 2nd weekend will happen because Guardians3 didn't reach its full potential in OW. An important part of its possible target audience was reluctant/not eager to see it during first days. Once WOM is here, Guardians is slowly recovering part of its audience.
Guardians2, MOM, Captain Marvel, Thor4 and WF didn't have new competition in their sophomore weekend but their drops were steeper. That's because all these films burned more demand in their openings.
Looking at 2nd weekend grosses, I find interesting how similar they are for most of these MCU films. 68M for CM, 66.5M for WF, 65.3M for Guardians2, 61.7M for MOM...-
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Weekend Thread 19-21/05 | Fast X $67.5M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Almost certainly over 150M
MD weekend + Summer dailies should help with legs