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jb007

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    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:

    If Secret Superstar and Wonder's WoM in China are good, you don't have to worry about OD, because they will have great legs and can even have the 1st Sunday bigger than Saturday.

     

    BTW, I read from some sources that Secret Superstar kinda flopped in India. Is that true?

    It did quite well for a small movie. It was not a big blockbuster release but got headlines since it was produced by Aamir Khan as well as playing a minor role in it. It is a decent movie.

    STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI | 712.4 M overseas ● 1332.5 M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Always great to read hilarious half-assed assessments just based on a few under performing markets.

     

    TLJ currently is at a multiplier of 2.69 (619.5/231) overseas-China and is likely to end up close to a multiplier of 3 overseas-China. TFA, by far the most successful Star Wars movie overseas had a Overseas-China multiplier of 3.55 

     

    Selectively, some markets like Germany are well over a multiplier of 3 and will end up with 3.6.

     

    So a final projected multiplier of 3 for TLJ vs 3.55 TFA indicates terrible WOM? Geez. 

     

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, baumer said:

    The Netflix argument doesn't resonate with me either.  I have netflix plus an Android box and I'd still rather go to the theatre to see a movie.  There's nothing better, for me personally, than going to the theatre and sitting in a darkened room in front of a 200 foot screen (or whatever the measurements are) with the sound system it has and seeing a movie that way.  It's just what I prefer.

    I second that. Theater experience is special and I feel cannot be duplicated at home.

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jb007

    31 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

    Studios run on profits and TLJ is profitable but obviously less profitable than TFA, and likely less profitable than the studio expected. There's no reason to believe they did not expect 3x multi after TFA and RO managed to go over. Especially after such glowing reviews. 

     

    Moreover, perception is important cause less competition = better chance at higher profitability so now that everyone sees that SW can be challenged, studios won't hold back. 

     

    Point being, profitability is important but even within profitability there's higher and lower profitability and you bet they want higher one. Especially since TLJ toy/merch sales are reportedly down too (though part of the problem is Toy'R'Us situation but still they are not making as much money as they used to). 

    I hope you are kidding. 99.99% of the movies made will turn less profit than TFA. Let's get it out of the way.

     

    How does one know what the studio expectation was? If they went by TPM/AOTC or ANH/ESB drops, their realistic expectation would have been around a 30% drop from TFA. TLJ drop will be in that vicinity. OS grosses are exactly what most expected it to be specially with the ER hit to the biggest market, UK. China would have never a been a serious market when Rogue One under performed even with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen in solid roles instead of roles to attract Chinese moviegoers. 

     

    Personally, I feel TLJ left about $70M on the table Domestc and none OS. Even with that metric, the potential lost will be around 4 to 5%. That is based on my perception. 

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

    This is what I'm talking about. Raw numbers are not the only thing about the boxoffice run. Perception is the most important one and perception is that SW franchise has gotten weakened by TLJ which is why media outlets keep pushing that angle. If TLJ held better there wouldn't be hit pieces and constant jabs. 

     

    @jb007 That's perception and perception is always going to win over just numbers. You bet that Disney/LF is not happy with this perception because it means studios will be emboldened to release direct threats/competition against SW movies, whereas they would have run away had TLJ been as dominant as everyone thought it would've been. 

     

    Point is, Jumanji's 300M may be half of TLJ's 600M but Jumanji exceeded expectations while TLJ underwhelmed. And that's the biggest takeaway, not whether 300M<<<600M. 

    Perception means jack. Studios run on profits. TLJ will be more profitable than any other movies in 2017. Further, the TLJ studio share is likely to be way bigger than JW, F7 and AOU (due to high China gross/low share) with only TA having a bigger studio share than TLJ. 

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

    Most posts are not trolling (exception being that troll ForceUser from Jedi Council Forum) because they take perception into consideration. If you go only by raw numbers in a vacuum (no comparison to anything, no putting things into perspective) TLJ is a huge success cause 600M+ dom + 700M+ OS = 1.3B+ WW = huge success. However, this is just raw numbers and boxoffice run is much more than just raw numbers. Boxoffice is all about perception and current perception is that it has fallen from TFA much more than it should've had, that Jumaji is kicking its ass which is something that shouldn't have happened, that failing to hit 3x multi during the holiday season (that other mega openers such as TFA and RO managed) is a sign of mixed WOM (aka if they made a more appealing movie we wouldn't have had this conversation), that media is out to tear it down with baiting headlines that either call it a disappointment or put up a fake defense of its disappointing boxoffice run with a clear emphasis on it being a disappointment. In short, perception is that SW is no more invincible and therefore no need for competition to run away from it. Which poses a problem for IX.

     

    TLJ is the first sequel ever to a 2B WW grosser and 900M dom grosser, so there's no precedent to how such a sequel would behave. We only knew it would drop but it was unknown by how much. had Avatar 2 been released before TLJ, it would have been scrutinized for drops because of the same reason - no precedent. Moreover, TLJ drop from TFA is in ESB to ANH and AOTC to TPM range, but since TFA had much bigger total, applying the same % gives a number that looks more alarming even though it's the same %. 30% drop from 90M is 30M loss, and 30M doesn't sound too bad. 30% drop from 900M is 300M loss and 300M sounds really bad even though it's the same %. It's just that bigger number itself looks more alarming even though the movie kept ESB/AOTC level of decline. OTOH, since those 2 movies were released in summer vs TLJ's holiday release, holiday was supposed to soften the drop and that didn't happen. 

     

    My point is that the raw numbers in a vacuum aren't the only merit of success. No one (save that 1 troll) says that 1.3B is a disaster. It's a big success. But other aspects of the run are questionable at best and cannot be categorized as a clear success. Hence why we are having this discussion for weeks now.

    I don't want to point out who the trolls are, though it is quite obvious. 

     

    It is pathetic when they are trying make an issue of Jumanji winning against the 4th weekend of TLJ. Even with a potential loss of $70M due to negative buzz among a small percentage of the moviegoers, TLJ's gross will beat the crap out of a box office phenom like Jumanji.

     

    The margin between TLJ and Jumanji is likely to be the unadjusted gross of Narnia, MOS etc. That is a sound whipping of the best kind, if one wants to compare them. If TLJ had reached its potential, the margin would have been ROTS, SM2. 

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jb007

    50 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

    All day long it's about the failure "The Last Jedi" is, and how wonderful "Jumanji" and just about every other film is. 

     

    Jumanji

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic:  $219,172,666    58.2%
    + Foreign:  $157,514,016    41.8%

    = Worldwide:

    		 $376,686,682

     

     

    The Last Jedi 

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic:  $555,546,602    49.2%
    + Foreign:  $573,500,000    50.8%
    = Worldwide:  $1,129,046,602

     

     

    Flop or no flop, its running about 420 million OS more and 330 DOM more

     

    750 Million PLUS, lol

     

    Don't give me the "but it's Star Wars!" it SHOULD

     

    nope, you lose that argument when you called it a flop

     

     

     

     

     

    +1

     

    WRT final grosses, The Last Jedi Squashes a phenomenal box office total of Jumanji like a bug. But people use 4th weekend figures of TLJ to define its overall performance. Context matters.

     

    But it is also a testament to the enduring dominance of Star Wars that even at 41 years of age, being the biggest hit of the year and grossing over $600 M Domestic (though there is some potential lost here) can be considered an under performance.

    • Like 2

    Daily Numbers | Thursday 4th Jan | J 6, TLJ 4.4

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

    Yup.  It's hilarious, Disney is laughing all the way to the bank!

    While it will not get to 700m, it will be around 630m. Let's see how many mega hits even come close to TLJ gross over the next few years. 

     

    Personally, my most anticipated movie for this year IW. I would be very happy if it clears 500m. 

    Tuesday Numbers: Jumanji 10.2, TLJ 7.9 (Asgard)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

     

    I don't agree with him. Titanic is great in my opinion. But he has a right to that opinion, same as you have a right to your opinion that Citizen Kane is a piece of shit. I disagree with that opinion as well. They're both great movies. But you both have a right to hate them if you want. 

    I love Citizen Kane and consider Titanic to be garbage. ;)

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