jb007
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Posts posted by jb007
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9 minutes ago, mikee11 said:
Is there any other big successful Christmas release that made less than three times opening weekend?
Dude. Yeah Only one of those other than TLJ made over $200M OW. The best of the rest other than R1 made less than $85 OW. Context matters . Don't post for the sake of posting.
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13 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:
Moving goalposts are always nice I remember OW people were saying at least better than avatar now 650 looks in doubt and Jumanji will beat it next weekend
Yet TLJ will beat this garbage of a movie by $350m.
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Just now, aabattery said:
Not only is it a new year, but it is also the birthday of... 297 members of the forum!
I wonder how many of those are really 01-01-1970 ????
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8 minutes ago, Porthos said:
TFA? Absolutely agree. Undeniable. No contest.
R1? Ya know, I'm really not 100% convinced.
Is there really a hell of a lot difference between a film that opens up at 155 and has a 3.5x (rounding) and one that opens up at 220 and has a 3x (guessing)?
To be honest, I can't say for sure "Yes". Even with it underperforming, TLJ is going to do 400 to 450 million dollars after its opening weekend. R1, by comparison did around 375.
I can absolutely see the case for saying it has about the same WOM as R1. I'll even say a little more or less in either direction.
I just don't know if we can say it with clarity. To me there is a hell of a difference between a 155 opener and a 220 one, calendar be damned.
If the negative buzz does exist and I feel it does exist, it is a small percentage. A $700M gross for TLJ would have satisfied everyone, but BJ.
$660M (final projection) would be very good. So the difference between "Good WOM" and "Divisive WOM" is about $40M. That amounts to about 6% of the projected gross.
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1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:
The dick jokes made me laugh.
So did I,the first time.
When they went with it second and third time, it got repetitive and boring.
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As a diversion, a report of Jumani.
After the heavy praise it got from many here, I was absolutely disappointed. It was a piece of shit ala Night at the Museum. A bland "Family" movie that is good only as far as the interactions go between the characters. Characters, story, villain, over used dick jokes make it a boring affair. The original was inventive and fresh.
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The posts here deriding TLJ's run by the usual suspects are truly for the ages. The lack of historical perspective and basic understanding of box office grosses is astounding.
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Just now, straggler said:
I like your theory, especially considering that TFA essentially remade New Hope root and branch.
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17 minutes ago, straggler said:
I have a theory why TLJ is disappointing. It is because TFA was not that good a film, and that once you take away Hans Solo and the nostalgia it did not leave much to work with. Jedi Mary Sue. Emo Ren. Snork or something. There, I said it.
TLJ had a laughable $220M OW. If it was any other major sequel, it would have done a fantastic $73M OW like Hobbit 2. TLJ was severely affected by TFA WOM.
You are onto something. But you really have to go 40 years back. It is A New Hope's mediocre WOM affecting TLJ. If ANH were any good, Star Wars would have been a very successful franchise.
Anyway, I would expect IW, JW2 to blow past TLJ's "disappointing" gross at the domestic box office.
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what a letdown. An uninspiring adventure. Once you get past the body swap part, the only thing that is good is the interaction between the characters. The adventure part is pure crap. It is the 2017 version of the blockbuster, Night at the Museum. A below average movie that is a mega crowd puller at holiday period.
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29 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:
I've been doing some thinking about TLJ and the so called underwhelming performance. Take a look at this thread:
This was a club I made way before presales and the hype took over. Most people in the club, before the presales numbers were released, had TFA making between 500-650 million, some said as high as 700. No one had it doing passing Avatar domestically and no one had it doing 800 million. Even my prediction at the beginning of the thread was 550 domestic. No one saw the absolute craziness that TFA would delight us with for the duration of its run. No one thought it would come even close to the insane number of 937 million.
Why do I bring this up? Well, maybe those of us, including myself, who are claiming that TLJ isn't doing what it should be doing, need to step back and realize that TFA was just a once in a generation anomaly and even though it opened to 220 million, finishing with 650-700 is still a remarkable number. It will more than likely be the third highest grossing film domestically of all time and will be probably end up in the 7 or 8th slot world wide. If TFA hadn't of come along and destroyed the box office, if it would have even made "just" 1.6 billion, then this performance by TLJ would have been looked upon much differently.
The multiplier is still a little vexing (although it could still get to north of 3.2, especially with next week acting like a holiday week) and it still should get to a minimum of 3X. The number that really messed me up is the Christmas Day bump of only 55%. So there is no denying that the wom has been affected by those of us who didn't care for it. But if TFA hadn't destroyed records, this run, the numbers it's putting up would be considered very strong. Maybe I need to step back and just realize hat 660-720 million is a hell of a gross and to just not look at it as a juxtaposition with the opening weekend.
I think it's easy to criticize the films run because of the opening weekend and the weak CD bump, but if TFA hadn't done what it did, we'd be singing a different tune about TLJ. Mots people had TFA doing less than 700 million, in fact no one predicted it to hit 700 before the presales numbers were released. And now this one will probably hit that number and yet we call it a disappointment. I'm more guilty that most for doing it, and that stems from me being upset at the film thematically. But when you look at the dollars and not anything else, it's doing quite phenomenal.
Excellent post, baumer. My thoughts exactly.
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50 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:
$22M is a monster number, not an "ok number." Anywhere above $20M is excellent. I know that people get hung up on nerdy box office stuff, but look, you post a $22M WEDNESDAY in your second week and theaters are packed. As I said, my theater sold out multiple 7 p.m. showings including an IMAX full of $20 tickets.
You can nerd out over multiples all you want and that's just fantastic but the movie will make $400 million after opening weekend when all is said and done, and I suspect quite a bit higher than that as these numbers prove it has a very good chance to sink Titanic (again). There are only 27 other movies in history that have made $400 million total, let alone after the 2nd biggest opening weekend in history. We can all dick around with nerdy multiples all we want, but a 6x multiple off a $10M opening weekend is still a piece of shit. It's still an amount of money so pathetic that TLJ nearly doubled that on opening day alone. It just has made me shake my head and laugh a bit, in a "not seeing the forest for the trees" kind of way. But yeah let's just yawn our way through one of the biggest box office runs ever, because "legs lol." Alright.
In real news, TLJ is on course to have difficulty finishing worse than 3rd on the all time best third weekend charts. So while it only ranked 13th on second weekends, despite an unfavorable calendar also impeding its third weekend, it should easily take 3rd best on the all time chart for its third weekend. THAT is real. And it is impressive.
Sadly, due to higher expectations, a lot of people are overlooking the fact TLJ's run is really spectacular. It seems to be heading towards the 3rd best domestic gross of all-time. All we hear is negative talk for a special run. Marvel, DC, JP series could only pray that their IW and JW2 end up with the disappointing $670M gross of TLJ.
Due to some hardcore fans having genuine issues with the arcs of some characters, there has been an impact on its potential gross. I would think it may be around $50M. I for one expected around $710M. Let's not compare it to TFA and lose our perspective. TFA is a once in a generation hit. It would be hard to match it for a long time.
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TLJ: 37.1%
Jum: 20.2%
PP3: 8.7%
TGS: 6.9%
Fer: 6.4%%wise for Wed, TLJ stayed at Tue levels. Jumanji dropped 2.5%.
Now we have to wait to see if that gives us a correlation to actuals.
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The Christmas projections are a little higher than we got yesterday, meaning more folks went to the movies yesterday than anticipated. That's good news all around, and it also meant that The Last Jedi's second-weekend drop was slightly less awful than presumed. To wit, The Last Jedi dropped "just" 67% on its second weekend, earning $72 million for a $368m ten-day total. That's still a $148m drop from its $220m debut weekend, a record for such a thing.
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2 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:
Where did the 7 come from?
8x2 = 16
14 = 1.4
17.4
Or
16
14 jedi in a circle =1
R2d2= 4
17.4
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Just now, redfirebird2008 said:
Assuming Friday/Saturday both stay the same with actuals, it needs about 45% Sunday drop to finish right at $70m for 3-day weekend.
Currently Disney is projecting a 50% drop with 14.6
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2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
That 3 day number seems to imply $29M didn't hold...does anyone know?
29.178 Sat per the numbers
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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
Hard to do. Probably needed Spidey 2 type WOM.
True. That would have been only a 15% drop from TFA.
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17 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
There are no horrible numbers for this movie. Worst case scenario it still goes over $660m.
No doubt. But there is a loss of potential. TLJ had the potential for 800 mil.
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Good number for TLJ instead of an excellent number.
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New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Whatever amount TLJ does below $700M i.e. A Multiplier of 3.2, I feel is the impact of negative buzz. At $630m, the impact would be $70M i.e 10% of its potential.