peludo
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Posts posted by peludo
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25 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:
I just don't think the repeat watchers for a 3 hour movie will be there. It's a slog, even for fans.
Nobody repeated Endgame or LOTR?
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1 hour ago, Bruce said:
So €15m is possible,That's good
If it opens to €4.5m, is not possible, but very probable.
Edit: a last look at presales makes me think it is opening over €5m. It is closer to TLK or Frozen 2 than to FFH or Joker:
Presales at about 14:30 (local time)
FFH: 3,853 admissions (€4m OW)
Joker: 3,705 (€4.47m OW)
The Batman: 5,717
For reference:
Frozen 2: 5,630 (€5.2m) OW
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1 hour ago, MG10 said:
Only 350M max in Usa/Canada? This is quite sad...
I do not see that limit either in the best case. It has 45 days until it arrives to HBO, which is its main limit. For example, Captain Marvel opened to $153m and by day 45 it was at $400m exactly. If The Batman has good legs because of good reception (best scenario) I do not see any reason why it should not reach those heights, even although it opens lower.
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14 minutes ago, Bruce said:
I've considered COVID effect,€10m is already one of the Highest grosser in COVID-era
Covid is done here. NWH is a good proof of it. And I insist that presales are way higher than Joker or FFH, both released before Covid.
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55 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
Thank you so muchhhhhhhh!!! Is there any more theatrical runs here for Shin chan? 🤩
I have found this (the years mentioned are the release year here):
Crayon Shin Chan, Ankokutamatamadaitsuiseki (2003): 2,384,550 € - 556,625 admissions
Shin Chan Dangeki butanohizume daisakusen (2004): 660,550 € - 149,398 adm
Crayon Shin Chan, Attack of adult empire (2007): 402,442 € - 78,605 adm
Crayon Shin Chan the movie: Dangeous honeymoon - The lost daddy (2020): 121,089 € - 21,838 adm-
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12 minutes ago, Bruce said:
Joker have super leggy run in Spain,If the Batman have,half of Joker Performance then put overall gross €10m
It seems to be headed to open on par to Joker. Half of Joker total run would mean €15m, not €10m.
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9 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:
Seems like walk ups went through the roof in Greece as well. Every single of these screen things you are booking tickets on the spot were occupied by people for The Batman. The theater actually added lots of last minutes showings as well and it's quite remarkable the amount of showing given its runtime.
Same in Spain. The theater which I usually track has 20 showings today. For reference, Joker had 16 on its OD with 1 hour less of runtime, and Joker already opened higher than the usual CBM film here.
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1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:
@peludo, I would like to ask something... Is Shin chan 2003 a rare success in Spain, grossing about €2.39M? Also Pokemon 1999 is considered as US film, though grossing €5M in Spain... Any idea how Shin chan 2003 became a rare hit in Spain (༎ຶ ෴ ༎ຶ)
The TV show was very popular 20 years ago. Myself watched many chapters.
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1 hour ago, RJ55 said:
This movie release today in Spain right ? How good any early audience review in there movie site ?
No, it will be released tomorrow. Very few films are released before Friday here.
The main movies site in Spanish, www.filmaffinity.com, has a 7.8 score for The Batman, but as happens on iMDB or other similar sites, the first scores are irrelevant because of hardcore fans. It only has 145 votes. Just to compare, TDK has over 150k votes. We have to wait. Said this and for reference, anything over 7.0 on that site is really good.
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20 hours ago, peludo said:
Spain
I am tracking presales in the biggest theater of the country. I do not have too many movies to compare to. The most similar film I have data is FFH, which opened to €3.8m ($4.3m with current ER) in 2019.
Presales are 25% ahead of FFH at the same point, so The Batman would open to about $5m OW, maybe a bit more. That would be really good for a SH film.
An even better data is that ratio of tickets sold on Saturday or Sunday relative to whole weekend is higher for The Batman than for FFH. It could mean to be less frontloaded and... maybe better legs?
FFH
Friday: 70%
Saturday: 23%
Sunday: 7%
The Batman
Friday: 57%
Saturday: 30%
Sunday: 13%
Presales 32% ahead of FFH at the same point. That would give a €5m OW. Really huge.
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Spain
I am tracking presales in the biggest theater of the country. I do not have too many movies to compare to. The most similar film I have data is FFH, which opened to €3.8m ($4.3m with current ER) in 2019.
Presales are 25% ahead of FFH at the same point, so The Batman would open to about $5m OW, maybe a bit more. That would be really good for a SH film.
An even better data is that ratio of tickets sold on Saturday or Sunday relative to whole weekend is higher for The Batman than for FFH. It could mean to be less frontloaded and... maybe better legs?
FFH
Friday: 70%
Saturday: 23%
Sunday: 7%
The Batman
Friday: 57%
Saturday: 30%
Sunday: 13%
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Full OD: 74
Saturday: 43
Sunday: 38
Full OW: 155
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5 hours ago, RJ55 said:
OS forecast for me i guess
Spain 10
That seems low to me. I would say 13-14 (about €12m). I know 3 or 4 million are not too much for WW figures, but it would mean a 30% or 40% higher in Spain than those 10 million.
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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I suppose next spidey doing less than FFH would be disappointment but 1B should be done. Of inc China.
NWH inc China is like 1.55-1.6B.
So, well under 1b OS-China right? The debate was about if we should expect the same for The Batman OS-China than Joker did, and in the same way you would not expect something similar to NWH for a future normal Spidey sequel, something that seems absolutely logical, I would not expect something extraordinary for The Batman just for the fact Joker did what it did.
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2 hours ago, Derby Legion said:
Yes
Really? so, with that logic, I guess that if next Avengers films does not make $2.8b will be a disappointment too.
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27 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:
You: This is much darker than the average SH film!
Me: ...like Joker?
You: Joker is MUCH darker than the average SH film!
So, if the next Spidey film does not reach 1b OS will be a disappointment? Joker was a rarity, an event, like NWH is.
You perfectly know that Joker was not the usual SH film. It is based on a character comic, sure, but it is not a SH film. It is way closer to The king of comedy than to TDK. Many people who NEVER see this kind of films went to see Joker.
Another proof: how many people here expected Joker making $1b WW before the release? Just one person. And the OS thread was opened 1 day after Phoenix won the prize in Venice. In a forum full of SH hardcore fans, was not there an OS thread for a SH film some weeks before the release? Nobody expected those results. Not even close.
For that reason, to expect the same for The Batman is to set yourself to be disappointed. IMO, it has no sense.
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1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:
The weirdest trend in The Batman predictions has been people acting like an OS juggernaut like Joker doesn't exist, a character who is literally a Batman spin-off.
Beyond Joker is a Batman universe character, the Todd's film has not nothing in common with this film or any other SH film. Joker was a drama, not a SH film. Even my 69 years-old mother went to see Joker at theaters. But she would never see a Batman vs Joker film, not even at home. I find absurd to compare both films grosses.
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20 hours ago, Juby said:
TDKR was before covid (some markets still has 25/33/50% capacity limits in theaters) and was a sequel to goddamn TDK (1bn worldwide)! BvS four years later made 447.5m OS-C with higher tickets prices and 3D. JL (the last movie with Batman) ended with less than $323m OS-C +4 years ago. Anything over F9 OS-C for The Batman in those weird times will be a victory for WB.
Pretty agree. TDKR was the sequel of maybe the most beloved SH film ever and The Batman is a new reboot with, apparently, a really dark tone. Anyway, I could be called optimistic with your ranges, since I am still thinking in 400-450 OS-C, because of lack of competition.
With 100 million coming from China and maybe 350 DOM, we have a 850-900 WW range, basically, for example, the same than the first solo Spidey film in MCU (Homecoming). And this one does not have the biggest franchise behind. That would be a very good result, no matters how you look at it.
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2 hours ago, Eric Drake said:
Because he's not getting cast and it's annoying people keep saying "lol Joaquamole Phoenix needs to beat up Battinson in the next one". They're from different timelines, and I don't think Joaquamole would say yes anyways. It's just irritating people keep saying they want something that will never happen.
I guess you know The Flash makes it possible.
Anyway, I agree that it is extremely unlikely. Maybe 1% possible. Or less. But just imagine for one second it could happen...
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4 hours ago, excel1 said:
If it is JP joker? $300m+ easily no doubt
I do not understand why some people laugh at this post. A sequel with Phoenix's Joker would be crazy. Maybe some people should remember that 4 Batman films beat the OW record.
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On 2/9/2022 at 1:15 PM, peludo said:
I would expect about €10m from Spain, similar to TDK, TDKR and BvS. More than that would surprise me pleasantly.
Talking about global figures, I am still thinking in $400m OS. Maybe $450m (of course, always asuming that it will not have a Chinese release)
With China release confirmed, I rise my OS prediction to $550m.
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16 hours ago, MG10 said:
I'm pretty sure only No Way Home had a bigger opening in 2021, maybe Venom too? But yeah it's quite impressive, I definitely wasn't expecting it
Exactly. $3.5m means about €3.1m. Last year NWH opened to €7.29m (3-day weekend) and Venom to €3.26m. Next one was Furious 9 which opened to €2.8m. So Uncharted is the 3rd biggest opening since March 14th, 2020 (beginning of covid restrictions)
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20 hours ago, Bruce said:
Yes,I can be sure that Spiderman is the most popular Superhero in this world,Box office can prove that,Many of my classmates really love him,so do I.Peter Parker is one of the most beloved character in this world.
Superman is the most well-known Character,because Superman's popularity is already last 80 years in the entire world,today if some people doing something amazing,people will say"Wow,you are such a Superman"He is already a word which can describe great person,he is the symbol of America,if people think of America,they will think about Superman,Statue of Liberty,Coca-cola...etc
Absolutely agreed. In fact, the word "supermán" is accepted as correct by Spanish Language Academy. It means, of course, "man of superhuman abilities and qualities".
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54 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:
Do you know Infinity Saga total franchise gross?
I have data from all MCU films released in China (last one was Far from home) excepting first Thor. The gross cume is 20.3b Yuan ($3.19b with today ERs)
Edit: taking out FFH, the cume is 18.89b ($2.97b).
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THE BATMAN OS THREAD - 745M WW so far
in International Box Office
Posted
I find strange those $3.7m from Spain if it really did $1.2m OD according this:
https://collider.com/the-batman-global-box-office-opening-friday/
Saturdays and Sundays in Spain are always stronger than Fridays, even with highly anticipated films (even Endgame had its biggest days on Sat and Sun along the OW). $1.2m would mean at very least a similar amount from the 3 days. Probably I am wrong again, but it is a really strange data. Either the OD is lower than those $1.2m, or the OW is higher than those $3.7m since there have not been any special event across the country on Sat or Sun.