cory
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Posts posted by cory
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The Watch could get close but it won't take it.Could another comedy steal Ted's crown before september 1st?
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Haha just checked and my original prediction for ASM was $310m. Oh well. But my TA prediction was even worse
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This is in no danger of being a Superman Returns with the overseas numbers. Sequel is happening and it will almost certainly increase. Sony definitely knew it would be an uphill battle domestically, but they still announced a sequel.Guys, I know all this "it reverts back" business. Perhaps a sequel will indeed happen regardless if this is modest hit or a phenom 30 days from now. At the end of the day Sony still has a board of directors to answer to. If, IF this ends up being an underwhelmer of a "hit" the real pressure is on for whatever sequel may get made. You don't keep making movies where the Profit/Loss ratio is no longer in your favor just to keep the property from reverting back to Marvel.
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This. TASM2 is the reason that TASM exists.There was never not going to be an Amazing Spider-Man sequel.
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Possibly the saddest box office run of all time. Glad I saw it in theaters.None of this matters until this number:
95 The Raid: Redemption SPC $34 -76.6% 3 - $11 $4,105,123 -
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I'm guessing the range will be 255-270. Spider-Man 2 and Transformers had ~2.0 6-day multipliers, and they didn't have theater-devouring competition in their 3rd weekends.We can pretty much write off 300m. It's lost too much on Transformers 1 to get there. It'll pass 250m for sure but I don't know how much further it gets.
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The % difference is greater for Spider-Man.http://boxofficemojo...&wknd=19&p=.htmNOT A RECORD!!!!!!!!!!
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Emma Stone: $883 million WW without Spider-Man over 5 years.Kirsten Dunst: $1.1 billion WW without Spider-Man over 18 years.Stone is way hotter than Dunst ever was.
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Sony should have changed the release date to the 11th if they really wanted to take advantage of that effect.I think spillovers of TDKR might go and see ASM
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That doesn't really happen. Hancock was only slightly softer in its 4th weekend than it would have been without the steeper drop from TDK in its 3rd. The effect will be negligible. Actually, Hancock (after the first week) is pretty much a dead-on parallel with what TASM will probably do.I'm still convinced it will have a harsh drop when TDKR opens, and then a prompt correction the next, so no harm done.
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The expected drop from TDKR in the 3rd weekend will be fatal for legs. No getting around it. I don't even have it locked for 275m because of that.I wouldn't put 300m out of range just yet. It could still make it.
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No way. Dunst only had 1 other movie over $40m between 2002-2007.In 2007 during the last Spiderman, Dunst was a bigger star than Stone is now. I'm not comparing when the 1st Spidey dropped, but the last Spidey, The 2 Leads and Director were bigger than TASM team. Ironically 2007 is Stone's film debut.
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Superman Returns was around 30 mets (15 for its 6-day)TASM is doing almost identical business (15 mets for a $140m 6-day using Avengers for format share estimates).
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I'm guessing something like this (best case scenario):64 (140)32 (200)12 (230)8 (245)5 (255)3 (260)Total around 270.
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It would need to have the same 6-day multiplier as SM2 to hit 300. With TDKR cutting into its late legs, that's pretty much impossible.
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Great for TASM. I think I predicted 230, so it's exceeding my box office expectations. Sequel should be awesome even if this movie wasn't exactly amazing.
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2003, 2007 and 2008 (Friday/Wednesday/Friday) were the only years with increases on the 4th in the past 10 years.
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Movie needs to get 75% after a certain amount of reviews to be certified fresh, if it drops below 70 after more reviews it loses it.It isn't holding on by 1%. Anything above 60% is certified fresh. It's 10% above that right now.
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Yeah, it's probably going to lose CF status. I loved Garfield and Stone in it too much to truly hate the movie though.With that TASM drop and with it barely holding on to it's certified fresh rating by 1%, I am starting to feel justified.
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2012 R-Rated Openings
1. Ted: 6.6 mets
2. Magic Mike: 6.1 mets
3. Prometheus: 5.3 mets
4. Safe House: 5.1 mets
5. 21 Jump Street: 4.6 mets
R-Rated Comedy Openings
1. The Hangover Part II: 10.7 mets
2. American Pie 2: 8.0 mets
3. Sex and the City: 7.9 mets
4. Scary Movie: 7.9 mets
5. Ted: 6.6 mets
6. The Hangover: 6.0 mets
7. American Wedding: 5.5 mets
8. Wedding Crashers: 5.3 mets
9. Jackass 3-D: 5.2 mets
10. Superbad: 4.8 mets
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Three $45M+ R-rated openings in one month.Amazing.
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Oh man, this is awesome. No way it's beating Inception's admissions though.
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TPM probably broke 100M tickets with kid admissions.
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That's exactly what I'm pointing out, it's impossible to get that kind of accuracy, so precision is the fairer way to go.We can't really compare to other movies. For example, Shrek 2 would have sold a lot of kiddie tickets compared to TDK.
61.7MDo you have TA at 57.5M admissions?
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Monday Box office Est. TASM 7.5 TED 4.5 BRAVE 2.5
in Numbers and Data
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Needs about a 40% second weekend drop to hit $200m by Sunday... so that's not happening.