spizzer
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Posts posted by spizzer
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17 minutes ago, Rth Wakanda said:
LA, NYC performing normal levels over performing Chi, Atlanta,Washington Philly,Houston , Columbia quite few others
Canada pretty much normal level
Looking forward to seeing the top engagements. Here in Northern VA/DC, AMC Tysons is king but I expect Gallery Place and Georgetown are lighting it up this weekend in the district and Hoffman/Potamac Mills in Alexandria/suburbs.
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5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:
They estimate 23.6% not 27%.
No idea
I think 20% has a chance. But better, no idea.
In generell President's Day Sunday seems to help less than Memorial or Labour Day Sunday.
Yeah fixed it - I was still working with the old 66.4M Saturday number.
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2 minutes ago, the beast said:
is it likely for the sunday drop to be half of that?
Maybe not half, but I'd expect sub 20% given the Saturday demand level + time of year + weekend structure.
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22 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:
Disney with a 24% Sunday drop. Lowball if I've ever seen one.
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Just saw Shawn's demo breakdown from earlier today. Only for OD but very encouraging for legs.
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32 minutes ago, Rth Wakanda said:
lets see how this plays out 63-66
Crazy. Sunday's going to be massive.
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1 hour ago, Rth Wakanda said:
mid 70's been thrown around safe beat atm , business is off the charts (there's only two films higher :)), however huge amount pre-sales which skew things a lot , see how it goes into eve.
Cool. Look forward to your updates as usual.
9 minutes ago, Chewy said:Never forget
Not a record.
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5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:
For the 3-day?
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Should get some word around 4:00 PM ET once EC matinees are rolling and WC matinees are starting up.
Whatever gauge we can get on pre-evening business will be a better indicator for Sat/Sun performance. Strong early day share today points to a stronger increase tomorrow.
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7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Did I read right? The next opening day grosses were $59M, $28M and $20M? Holy shit. That's the story of weekend box office globally. Wow!
Yeah, China domestic market is heading towards $500M in ticket sales this weekend.
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BOI encouraged with Black Panther's start.
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What a weekend this will be.
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On 2/13/2018 at 9:22 AM, spizzer said:
Thoughts - Momentum is picking up at too quick a rate for tracking to keep up, that's a lot of volatility in the last 10 days. Reminds me of Avengers buzz/fever pitch in the last 2 weeks leading up. Those AMC presales comps are impressive.
Given the time of year, Saturday record would be in jeopardy with a 3-day weekend IMO but 4-day could throw a wrench in that (depends on demand level) but makes Sunday record quite possible (far more potential for Sat spillover than previous Pres. day weekends w/o Valentine's day).
SM3/TA/TDK are at the 21.5-22M OW attendance range and TFA at 22-23M. This can probably do something like 20-22M for the 4-day, with current prices + 2D showtime saturation that could be right round 240-250M (22M/62M/68M/61M/30M).
Currently way early but we're about to get right on track. Maybe higher.
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On 2/13/2018 at 9:55 AM, Lordmandeep said:
Something I have noticed, but unlike your typical massive uber blockbuster, I find presales swing wildly between theatres in my area.
Theaters that have a much bigger minority client base are having an insane level of presales while other theatres are having rather solid pre-sales for this film.
Now I am unsure what this means but I am not buying it can open as large as TA/TDK and such.
I'm saying around or slightly lower than TA/TDK attendance through 4 days, so that would still be below TA/TDK's pace. Actually depending on 3D split, even 250M through 4-days might be lower than TA/TDK 3-day attendance.
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Thoughts - Momentum is picking up at too quick a rate for tracking to keep up, that's a lot of volatility in the last 10 days. Reminds me of Avengers buzz/fever pitch in the last 2 weeks leading up. Those AMC presales comps are impressive.
Given the time of year, Saturday record would be in jeopardy with a 3-day weekend IMO but 4-day could throw a wrench in that (depends on demand level) but makes Sunday record quite possible (far more potential for Sat spillover than previous Pres. day weekends w/o Valentine's day).
SM3/TA/TDK are at the 21.5-22M OW attendance range and TFA at 22-23M. This can probably do something like 20-22M for the 4-day, with current prices + 2D showtime saturation that could be right round 240-250M (22M/62M/68M/61M/30M).
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Have there been any 200M 3-Day OW calls for Black Panther yet (here or in the media)?
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On 1/10/2018 at 1:35 PM, grim22 said:
Ha! Can't wait.
Also Padmavat(i) rebounding well. Anyone have any predictions with the original release date? Seems like its holding up strong anyway (controversy may have actually boosted it here in the US).
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How are the Fri-Sun presales looking?
Did we get a figure for total presales? Once we have a Preview figure we can get a better gauge for Fri-Sun advance business.
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Excluding the D-Box prices, which have gone down, here are the average adult ticket prices I've tracked (same showtimes, same theaters, same formats, same time of day).
Overall
2015 TFA: $15.69
2016 RO: $16.15 (+2.9% YoY)
2017 TLJ: $16.56 (+2.5% YoY)
2D Evening
2015 $13.30
2016 $13.80
2017 $14.06
3D Evening
2015 $17.30
2016 $17.80
2017 $18.06
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The Last Jedi - Thursday Preview Sellout Count for MD/DC Metro/Northern Virginia as of 10:30 AM EST
183 Sellouts / 519 Showtimes
2D: 111 / 314
3D: 35 / 118
IMAX: 13 / 25
PLF: 9 / 19
D-Box: 4 / 4
Marathon/Fan Special: 11/39 (includes all formats)
For reference - The Force Awakens on Thursday morning was at 245 sellouts / 565 showtimes. TFA final tally was 302 sellouts / 582 showtimes.
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I'll have sellout reports and price comps (with TFA/R1) sometime next week.
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Awesome! Well deserved.
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17 minutes ago, jiangsen said:
That means it's a buy-out and not revenue-sharing? Any idea what terms of buy-out were? Flat fee or guaranteed minimum?
BOI (boxofficeindia.com) says the following:
QuoteThe only problem with the China market is that Indian producers hardly get a return even if the film is successful. The films are taken outright by Chinese companies and they release and market the films there and the monies paid are well below $1 million. The revenue in Australia with just $2m apprx will be far more for the producers even if China goes on a crazy run. Its basically a token gesture release financially but what it does is allow a star like Aamir Khan to create a fan following which may allow better deals for him films in the future.
Only problem is, I have no idea where their info has ever come from. I've followed the site for ~11.5 years now for Indian BO (mostly they focus on Hindi/Bollywood market) and I can't recall any legit source verification for any of their data (I think they've claimed that they get numbers from distributors but again, only a claim).
Unfortunately, they're still the best source for India's BO - only other figures we get come from a few trade journalists and the studios themselves.
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9 hours ago, damnitgeorge08 said:
According to komal nahta first day was 36.5 in hindi and not 40.5 as reported.
Where has he been for the last 8 years? I haven't heard FI quoted since before the turn of the decade.
Is he still considered relevant in the reporting world? Even back then, he always had discrepancies with other mainstream reporting.
BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Overestimated demand level (or result of 3D share) by ~8.5% but nearly nailed the Saturday/Sunday guidance. Sunday drop is on the softer side so my -51% for Monday may be conservative.