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spizzer

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    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by spizzer

    6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

    Pokemon is the highest grossing media franchise of all time. It is 100% a four quadrant franchise.

     

    I think that's a poorly tabulated internet metric that's not quite legit. Pokemon's definitely up there but I don't think this was ever accurate, I think someone on Wikipedia just added up what they could find/was found and Pokemon resulted in #1.

     

    Can't back that statement up right now but I'll try to look into it and get back to it sometime.

    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Shawn said:

    Seeing some confusion here about the $59M figure. That number was directly reported by Universal, which is effectively the same as comScore, not any outside sources or made up by Deadline. 

     

    It may end up off, but let's keep facts in line before blaming outlets for any misreporting. The studio may have just jumped the gun and overcorrected after being so low before.

     

    Thanks for clarifying Shawn!

    • Like 1

    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    That is also too early if you look at the timestamp. I could buy Charlie's 54m estimate more than deadline's 59m estimate. 

     

    Saturday PS is looking good. I am expecting slight jump from friday. But I feel saturday average ticket price could go lower. So let us see how walkups are tomorrow and can it increase a bit. But I am not expecting a big drop for sure. 

     

    Oh regarding Empire tweet I was more focusing on his Weekend 2 comments, not current weekend.  

     

    For this weekend I agree, DL pulled $59M out of their ass.  Sat I expect a jump as well, this with its demos + 90 minute runtime should be a matinee monster which means Saturday will be highest attended day easy and IMO enough for a jump from 54M.

    • Like 1

    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Flamengo81 said:

    Empire City did say like 1hr ago that he thinks the floor is 215M+ so he must be pretty confident in the numbers he is seeing. Let's wait then...

     

     

    Well he's probably got better Sat/Sun projections than Deadline.  If it really did $59M I'd be confident in like $220M, but DL is only at $195M.

    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Grrrrr why does this weekend thread have to turn into a barbie thread. That movie has enough threads/clubs to discuss. Its nothing to do with Mario as well. 

     

    Anyway let me be cautious. Mario at this point is driven a lot by walkups. This 59m estimate was provided really early. While its possible to go higher, it can go lower as well. I would not call this a conservative projection. hopefully @charlie Jatinder or he who must not be named will provide an estimate in the evening hours which would be closer to actual. I wonder if @RthMav could come in for this. It has been ages since he was last seen. 

     

     

    Yeah I just tried to cool down another forum with that 59M number.  

     

    You still think >55M looks good? Charlie said 53M earlier today>

    • Like 1

    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, screambaby said:

    Thisi s like Disney not trying to get too hyped over tfa OW....

    Those figures make no sense....unless their expecting a total flat line....not seeing that at  all in the tracking thread. Quite the opposite.

     

    They need $9M in refunds in order for those figures to work.  92M 3-day + 58M 2 Day = 150M, but they're saying 141M lol.

    • Like 1

    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by spizzer

    4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

    225M?how?

    Friday-60M(+126%)

    Saturday-54M(-10%)

    Sunday-38M(-30%)

    $152M OW+$58M=$210M

     

     

     

     

     

     

    It won't drop on Saturday.  Early signs and trend suggest its not performing like a fan-driven film (otherwise Wednesday should have been way more rabid and in $50-60M).  It's just behaving like a regular family/animated film but with much larger volume.  Saturday should see a small jump from 55-60M Friday.  Maybe not even small, but Good Friday probably adds a little bit of Sat deflation compared to a regular Friday.

    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

    I've been following box office since I was 13 and I still never really understood something, if anyone's able to answer this who may have been older than me/following box office back at the time.

     

    Twilight opened to 69M in 2008. Then all of a sudden the sequel comes out a year later and more than doubles its opening weekend. Did the franchise really see that much of a spike in popularity over 12 months? Wouldn't book fans have driven up sales of the first film? Kind of like Hunger Games/Catching Fire, there was a bit of a sequel bump there, but nothing like Twilight. And then every subsequent sequel after New Moon performed pretty much on par with New Moon (both domestic and overseas).

     

    So, what happened in those 12 months? Why is the original such an outlier box office-wise?

     

    Felt like it was multiple converging factors.  I was in HS & on BOM back then and my memory of that time was that Potter 6 that summer really made midnight/rabid shows a thing for my age-group (as opposed to just a fanbase thing) and then that factor just ramped up further with NM later that year.

     

    Then there was a bit of Lautner craze plus Edward v Jacob craze & early memeing.

     

    Then there's the fact that I guess Twilight theatrical and later HV performance probably solidified its conversion to cinema in the eyes of the fanbase and so they were sold on the rest of the franchise.

     

    A little bit of all of those I'd say.

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    SAT looks pretty much flat to me or mild growth but I am more excited for Sunday drop. Can it do a sub 15% like TFA is the key. Though TFA was much closer to XMAS for that drop to be softer.

     

    Not surprising.  Super Saturday should always have a flattening effect at this demand level, which helps spillover into Sunday.

     

    TFA/Avatar were closer to Christmas by a single day, so I don't expect that much deviation.  I think the drop will land between 10-15%..  

     

    Separate note - TFA we had a >50M Christmas Day thread, missed the cutoff by pocket change.  If the week trends hefty, this time with CD on a Saturday, threshold should be $60M unless Omicron scare catches momentum.  Friday CE is going to be super deflated anyway.

    • Like 3
    • Astonished 1

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Not to my knowledge. Anyway I was thinking of BOM days. Back then we had few reserved seating shows to track. People use to go hours before shows to stand in line. I remember theater being packed for TDK where people had come in from noon onwards !!!! So major tracking was around sellouts rather than seats. you were among early ones to track DC area and I remember Tele tracking LA area after that. 

     

    Yes the entire DC area had only 2 theaters with reserved seating even in the early 2010s.  Back during TDK I think it was only the AMC in Arlington Courthouse that offered reserved seating.  For SM3 I sat in the bottom row corner of a native 90ft IMAX screen lol.

     

    Tele and I put in a hell of a run in 2011-2012 when we first moved to this place, tracking Hobbit/Twilight/THG/Avengers/TDK.  It was so manual.

    • Like 4
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