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BOT User Tracking 6/24-26 Free State of Jones, Independence Day, Neon Demon, Shallows

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Free State of Jones

Prediction: 9.6M +/- 2.53M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 7.6M (off by 2.0M, so 0.79 stndev)

Not great but not bad either, and we were roughly in the middle of the pack compared to other sides. Cannastop and Daniel23 tied for the best predict at 8m.


Independence Day: Resurgence

Prediction: 45.82M +/- 8.91M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 41M (off by 4.8M, so 0.54 stndev)

Pretty decent predict and was also the best of the various sites by a pretty significant margin. Ethanhunt had the best predict at 41M.

Neon Demon

Prediction: 1M +/- .49M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 0.6M (off by 0.4M, so 0.82 stndev)

Not great but not bad, and way, way, way better than anyone else who mostly predicted around ~2.5M. Panamovie had the best predict at 0.616M



Prediction: 14.8M +/- 4.5M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 16.8M (off by 2.0M, so 0.44 stndev)

Solid predict. Third straight week without a bad predict which is actually pretty fantastic (sadly, *spoiler alert* this is going to crash to a halt next week). As a bonus, we were the second best predict after Movieweb.com who *finally* had one of their batshit-crazy predicts actually work out in their favor. Plus we were dramatically better than everyone but them. This has almost certainly been the best sustained period of predicting we've had since I started this. Ethanhunt was again the best predictor at 17M, just *barely* beating department store basement (17m vs 16.6M, and the actual was 16,800,868. So, $868 was the difference).

Edited by Wrath
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