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Gandalf the Off-White's Achievements
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Well indeed, as I just said, I'm sure BvS would have made more if it had been a summer release. But regardless, it obviously had pretty dreadful WOM. And yeah, don't mean to be making excuses for CW. As I said, it had rather weak legs. But I'm just making comparisons that I feel are apt. The summer weekdays SS enjoyed were definitely a factor in pushing it a bit further. CW's legs are nothing to brag about. Saying SS will about about match its legs (and you're right, should be in the ballpark), while opening almost $50 million lower and with the benefit of summer and younger crowds, doesn't seem too to be much to crow about either to me. I guess it is a small victory that it beat certain expectations and it's legs were better than awful. And again, I'm talking legs and longevity. I'm not gonna talk smack about its overall total.
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Clearly the word of mouth for SS isn't "toxic". It was certainly borderline toxic for BvS. After its opening, I had it pegged at about $285 million domestic. It's going to beat that handily. Overseas it seems to be doing well. But yeah, I just can't agree that the movie has " good" or "decent" legs in any way. CW had mediocre legs - I expected it would at least beat Iron Man 3 and finish around $415-420 million domestic. SS looks to finish with a poorer multiplier. CW didn't have the benefit of those summer weekdays, and it opened $46 million higher (a bigger opening, of course, can often lead to a faster decline). I realize we live in a frontloaded age, and I'm not deluded enough to say SS is a "flop" (ummm, of course it isn't) and I realize expectations were lowered after the hideous legs of BvS.... But I'm not sure how we can justify saying SS is having "decent" legs. If that's the case, I guess CW had pretty good legs too... and heck, it makes one yearn for the multiplier of Spider-Man 3 (another May release that, unlike SS, didn't have those summer weekdays). I don't begrudge anyone who enjoyed SS. Personally, I did not, and I know few who did, and I think that reflects in its lack of real legs (domestic at least). What is also reflecting is that people, in general, like it more than BvS. But I think even BvS would have banked another $20 million with summer weekdays on its side. Just my two cents.
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Wednesday Numbers: SS $4.1M (Guru)
Gandalf the Off-White replied to Nova's topic in Numbers and Data
That motorcycle chase was the best I've ever seen. -
Wednesday Numbers: SS $4.1M (Guru)
Gandalf the Off-White replied to Nova's topic in Numbers and Data
Haha, yeah it has to bomb. I've barely even seen any marketing. However - even if it plays to empty IMAX theaters, it's still going to be taking a lot of those theaters from SS, right? -
Tuesday Numbers | 6.25 M SUICIDE SQUAD
Gandalf the Off-White replied to kayumanggi's topic in Numbers and Data
Huge bumps for so many this Tuesday - the family films but others as well, like Florence Foster Jenkins. Cheap Tuesday is alive and well. -
Tuesday Numbers | 6.25 M SUICIDE SQUAD
Gandalf the Off-White replied to kayumanggi's topic in Numbers and Data
Fair enough and thanks for the feedback. I'm curious to see how the weekend plays. I realize it's not pegged for a big OW, but it's theatre count sure is huge. -
Tuesday Numbers | 6.25 M SUICIDE SQUAD
Gandalf the Off-White replied to kayumanggi's topic in Numbers and Data
Does anyone think Kubo could eat into Suicide Squad this weekend? I know Laika animation can draw teens and twenty-somethings. And I know SS has attracted young females, which I feel Kubo could draw in. I could be totally off-base, but I feel like anime or an alternative style of animation is popular among young women. Just speculation... Plus, Ben-Hur is taking up IMAX and similar-type screens, is that right? They might be mostly empty (I've barely heard about the movie!) but that could take away from SS, as well as the older males who might check out War Dogs. No doom and gloom, just thoughts.... Regardless of course, SS is doing well and I can't imagine WB unhappy. Allow me to end on that note. -
Tuesday Numbers | 6.25 M SUICIDE SQUAD
Gandalf the Off-White replied to kayumanggi's topic in Numbers and Data
Yes, we'll see where it all ends up after the smoke clears. One thing though - if anything, Gitesh has been biased in favor of SS. Most of his posts point to the positives of its run. I think generally he's *pretty* level-headed. -
Tuesday Numbers | 6.25 M SUICIDE SQUAD
Gandalf the Off-White replied to kayumanggi's topic in Numbers and Data
Just to respond again to Braniac from the other thread (I guess I can't anymore) - yes, a few more good summer weekdays and a bit of of a push should help SS get over $300 million. As you said, it's getting closer already. I'm not trying to be a "doubter", I just saw Gitesh and other analysts - and a huge amount of people on these boards - talking about a $290-310 million-ish final domestic number. That still sounds about right to me. -
Looking more hopeful maybe, but it's definitely not locked even if it's over $250 million this weekend (which would mean another dreadful drop). Even Gitesh Pandya's post this morning says $300 million "still a possibility"... so he's far from certain of a lock at this point. This weekend will probably be the best indicator if this might end up more around $290-295 million or more like $300 - 310 million.