I think for it to only hit mid-20s would require a historically bad IM for an animated movie without early access screenings. Not saying I couldn’t see it but that would be drastically weak.
that said, I do think there’s something to be said about Transformers and Wild Robot (hell, throw Beetlejuice in there too) cannibalizing each other. It’s been said before, but TFO genuinely had an awful release date.
I do think we have to prepare for similar cases happening to Moana/Wicked and Sonic/Mufasa, even if the impact of the holidays will ultimately lessen the blow. Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 feel like rare exceptions, but even then IO2 hit most of its earnings before DM4 dropped.
just…fuck, at least make it to 30m. Most Soul Crushing Run is gonna be a crowded enough field as is.