Shawn Robbins

Sony seems to be amping up the "opens Thursday" aspect for FE in marketing this week. Might be worth factoring into expected multipliers, especially with the 2pm start. They did something very similar with 65 last spring.

12.3 Dune

3.6 Imaginary

19.4 official est from studio

Hearing not much change with latest updates, except Imaginary down a couple of ticks.

I suspect Dune goes up, especially with another Sat jump coming. These numbers were from 12:30-1pm Pacific time.

Rolled in for both openers.

Those include previews.

Early studio Fri projections, take at your own caution: 18.2-18.5 Panda 12.5ish Dune 3.8-4.0 Imaginary

I'm very honored by the nomination, but I must respectfully recuse myself from this. Please vote for any of our regular forum contributors that help keep the conversation and fun going on a daily basis! ❤️

Following up on @Porthos' post mostly, but tagging you as well @von Kenni. I mean, I own all my data that could be interpreted as trade secrets... but, yeah, I can't give it all away for free. You're generally in the ballpark with social engagement stuff. On top of that, exhibitors and studios can look at granular data that varies chain by chain or location by location. And honestly, the same applies on a higher view level with national box office numbers and applying common sense. "Box Office 101", so to speak, includes understanding a kids' movie or something without a discernable fan rush is going to draw a lot of business not generated through pre-sales, even in a pre-sale-driven era. (Which is one reason it's always great when a fan-friendly movie does get healthy walk-ups, such as the big Marvel movies.) So at the end of the day, it's all about comps, comps, comps no matter what the metric is.

Going with a $44-54m range on KFP4. Pinpointing $48.3m. Dune at $43.8m. I tend to agree $50m might be on the higher end of likely outcomes... buuuut, it's not overly common for a studio (especially Universal) to come out with a number and overshoot by much. They're seeing something, and that's worth valuing on some level. The age of the franchise has always been a little bit of a concern to me, like others. On the other hand, families haven't had anything new to take their kids to since Wonka and Migration over two months ago, animated comedies have a big reach with parents and kids (let us not forget the magic Universal worked with Rise of Gru, the fifth in a franchise), and Jack Black is one of the few actors even some kids today might recognize -- especially with his social media presence in the wake of Mario last year, which could be helping to pump up on awareness and interest on KFP4. Lots of theories to toss around, and I do wonder why Universal didn't play it a little safer and say $40m+ to the trades. But, even a $2.5M+ Thursday could still net $45-50m this weekend. Only 8% of schools are out on Friday, so that should lend to a big Fri-to-Sat multiplier, while the figure jumps to 20%+ for Monday (which will moderately help Sunday's drop). Either way, two films over $40m in the same weekend is going to be a sight for sore eyes.

KFP4 is definitely pacing better than projected. Gonna be a bit of a noticeable shift in the final forecast range tomorrow.

Another great track all around by the BOT folk. 🙂

Saturday definitely looks strong from what I'm seeing, but we should temper that with the same precaution as before with this movie: walkups might or might not follow the same pace as they would for other movies. In D2's favor, though, is the PLF spillover effect in addition to word of mouth and a long run time that lends itself much better to Saturday (and Sunday) matinee scheduling for non-fans who didn't want to, or couldn't, spend over 3 hours in a theater for a film after work/school yesterday. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Ohh, I see. Honestly not sure, I hadn't heard much of it until now. It's highly unlikely the studio revises those numbers from here. But honestly, since they said $2m from early IMAX shows, I'd lean toward $9.5m - 10.0m for Thursday being fairly accurate. They might round up from a .5 increment, but I'd be mildly surprised if they underreported by a full 50%.

What mystery is there?

100%

32.2 official Fri est with previews

12

It's $12m.

Hearing the official studio # will be out soon, next 10-20 minutes.

I don't mind replying when tagged as long as it's civil/friendly talk and straight-forward questions. It actually helps because I haven't had as much time to read through the thread lately, especially when it gets busy, so notifications help me to not miss anyone's specific questions or comments. That said, your point stands as well. I don't need to be tagged if it's just a topic/convo on constant repeat, or tinged with poorly toned/aggressive comments (which we honestly are going to have to crack down on more when directed toward anyone), especially if I've already answered with my opinion on it. (Also, very intriguing comp re: Transformers -- will be adding that one to the batch.)

I've addressed this already, and you've already made your point that you disagree with the numbers. Time to drop it and watch the tone/misleading comments. Consider this a friendly warning.