Porthos

Who's the more foolish? The fool or the fool who quotes the fool?

Isn't that right, @Plain Old Tele?

BTW, I would like to add one other thing. I never ever ever call/predict an OW based on Sacto numbers. That ain't my thing. I exclusively look at previews and make a comp call on that. Right now, I'd say Sacto is pointing to around 20 to 22m in previews, depending on how these last three days go. If it is 21m then 21 x 8.5 = 178.5, which is right in line with some of your expectations @keysersoze123. I can already hear @TalismanRing's teeth grinding at 'only' a 8.5x off a 21m Thr, BTW. But it is possible that the film could be a bit more frontloaded due to the sheer number of showtimes out there and it being summer so more families being able to get Thr tickets. I wouldn't bet on it personally. But it also wouldn't surprise me too much. (I know @Menor has been looking at Fri/Sat data, but frankly I can't recall their conclusions right this moment)

I've been talking with @captainwondyful about this, and I think part of it is we don't have Dolby screens in Sacramento. My theory is that the tickets that could go to Dolby showings are instead going to standard 2D sales out here, if in the larger auditoriums. Here are some splits, again as of last night: Sold Total Perct 2D Seats 5266 19781 26.62% 3D Seats 690 4943 13.96% PLF Seats 1666 8332 20.00% Stand Seats 4290 16392 26.17% PLF - 2D 1321 6070 21.76% PLF - 3D 345 2262 15.25% Prct of tickets SOLD 3D Perct 11.58% PLF Perct 27.97% PLF seats account for nearly 28% of all seats sold locally . We just don't have that many PLF screens out here. Many theaters don't have any PLF screen at all. If I include the entire spectrum of all types of PLF, 16.25% of all showings (again as of last night) are some type of PLF (39/240). Since some of those PLF showings are in 3D or at midnight, that puts pressure on all of the standard showings out there. If there is only one 2D showing at a PLF screen* in a theater, a lot of folks are going to grab showings at standard times. * NOTE: Two theaters in the region have multiple (so-called) PLF screens, everyone else has one. Some theaters are having a 2D/3D/2D split on their PLF screen, others are exclusively 2D. Finally given that my numbers look to be broadly in line with Menor's (now that I have decent comps) I don't think Sacramento is over-performing all that much. Just that our tickets are spread out differently than places that have AMC theaters.

TLK just hit 250 showtimes for Thr in the Sacto market today, pending any more shows getting added from theaters as they finalize slates. Not counting Endgame (which finished at a gobsmacking 347), only Captain Marvel cracked 200 locally (216) for preview night. Even if the new theater is removed, that makes it 240 showtimes for TLK to CM's 216. I am, and I don't think anyone else for that matter, not saying this is reaching anything close to EG's level of showtimes. But a lot of us are noting the sheer number of showtimes that ARE being set aside relative to even other blockbusters.

I see a bunch of posts were made while I was semi-quickly putting together some data. This. If we can even call it a low percentage. First and foremost, if shows just got added (and this is the window when they do), they'll depress the overall percentage. Just today Regal Delta Shores added seven more showings for Thr to it's already sizeable number (now takes it over 20 for Thr). But still, some theaters perform better than others. I stripped away the names, coz they're unimportant. And I also am not counting a theater that only has one screen with reserved seating. Here is the as-of-last-night look at theaters in Sacto: Sold Total Perct 918 2386 38.47% 97 1800 5.39% 487 2116 23.02% 250 844 29.62% 115 307 37.46% 359 2066 17.38% 201 1246 16.13% 518 1210 42.81% 576 1756 32.80% 405 1225 33.06% 732 1793 40.83% 232 1252 18.53% 511 1792 28.52% 170 1298 13.10% 153 1336 11.45% 171 752 22.74% One theater is in fact horrible, and I would never use it as a comp by itself as it will have radical swings of comps when a film is in fact busy enough for ticket sales to trickle down there (in fact, I tend to use it as a canary in the coal mine for a truly big breakout hit). And another one is right at the cusp of being the same. But look at the list. Nothing is currently above 45%. Here is the same list sorted by tickets sold: Sold Total Perct 918 2386 38.47% 732 1793 40.83% 576 1756 32.80% 518 1210 42.81% 511 1792 28.52% 487 2116 23.02% 405 1225 33.06% 359 2066 17.38% 250 844 29.62% 232 1252 18.53% 201 1246 16.13% 171 752 22.74% 170 1298 13.10% 153 1336 11.45% 115 307 37.46% 97 1800 5.39% No prizes awarded for guessing the #1 theater on that list. And the second-to-last is actually a small dine-in theater so focus more on the percentage there. Overall, again as of last night, Sacto was at a tick under 25% of tickets sold. But if I didn't track a few of the heavy hitters, it could be around 20% sold. Now there is something to be said about "spillover" where folks buy up more tickets at some theaters in a region when the heavy hitters max out. No idea where TalismanRing's theater lands in the grand scope of things in her local area. Regardless, as I said 2.69x of TS4 isn't exactly "horrible". If you want to take something from it, take that it is a sign that TLK is not just doing well at the busiest theaters, but perhaps also in the mid-tier theaters where dollars matter just as much as they do with the big guns of the DOM market.

I track plenty of theaters that aren't as busy as others. It could just be that @TalismanRing's local theater isn't as busy as some. Or they buy later in the pre-sale window than other places. Doesn't make the data any less valid if it is consistent. Well, consistent-ish. Like, none of my theaters would crack a national Top 20. Century Arden might not even crack a Top 50 (I honestly don't know where it ranks, but I figure the 14 screens holds it back quite a bit). But it's the consistency from film to film, genre to genre that matters. Sure, theaters will wax and wane as time goes on. But in the short term unless there are huge swings a mid-performing theater should be just as predictive as a high end theater.

Everything's relative. Under no definition I am aware of is 2.69x TS4 horrible,

Commenting on your spec with my own uniformed spec:

I've seen it already. I, unlike some chattermouths over in Taika's camp, know how to respect NDAs. 👍

Never did officially OUT did I, even though it was heavily implied. For the record: OUT. Not even so much on the TROS side of the ledger but the H&S one. Shawn's comments about tracking are giving me pause. But right now pre-sales just ain't looking great. I'm sure it'll have a nice run DOM and OS. But I'm not seeing much that would juice this pretty high into the overall sales column.

You're gracious as always, Valonqar. But I'll wait 'till I start getting a sense of how it is playing in the GA (either by pre-sales or actual sales) before I feel too confident.