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Porthos

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Porthos last won the day on November 13

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  1. I'd be shocked if they weren't. Also what's up with that Wednesday showing in there? Some theater showing FB2 on Wed somewhere in the US?
  2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting [Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday] Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 124 11831 15116 21.73% Total Showings Added Today: 22 (6 non reserved seating showings added) Total Seats Added Today: 1240 Total Seats Sold Today: 396 .3043x as many tickets sold as Infinity War two days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales) .6223x as many tickets sold as Black Panther two days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) .6449x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 two days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) .7298x as many tickets sold as Solo two days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) .9594x as many tickets sold as JW:FK two days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) 1.4339x as many tickets sold as AM&tW two days before release (AM&tW had 18 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) 1.4548x as many tickets sold as Venom two days before release (Venom had 21 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) === Tue/Thr Breakdown: Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: FINAL REPORT Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 6 563 1399 59.76% Total Seats Sold Today: 154 Thursday Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting: Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 118 11268 13717 17.85% Total Showings Added Today: 22 (6 non reserved seating showings added) Total Seats Added Today: 1240 Total Seats Sold Today: 242 ========= T-2 Comps for other movies: Black Panther: 766 tickets sold that day. 50.96% of all seats sold. [5080/10359 seats left - 111 showings] Infinity War: 691 tickets sold that day. 73.59% of all seats sold. [3875/14671 seats left - 162 showings] Deadpool 2: 725 tickets sold that day. 34.21% of all seats sold. [9796/14890 seats left - 141 showings] Solo: 236 tickets sold that day. 33.64% of all seats sold. [8879/13380 seats left - 135 showings] Fallen Kingdom: 551 tickets sold that day. 25.19% of all seats sold. [10171/13595 seats left - 145 showings] Ant-Man & the Wasp: 268 tickets sold that day. 21.03% of all seats sold. [8605/10896 seats left - 111 showings] Venom: n/a tickets sold that day. 17.72% of all seats sold. [10486/12744 seats left - 117 showings] ==== As one can see, even though there were only six showings, 39% of tonight's sales were for the Limited Showings. Subtract that, and the total is still very close to Solo's (242 v 236). Not sure what to make of that, tbh. Be interested to see if Wed/Thr daily sale total is now depressed slightly relative to Solo since these tickets are now 'already in the bank' or if they'll be more like 'extra' showings where everything gets bumped up slightly (some Thr viewers went to Tue and some F/St/Su viewers went to prime seats now available on Thur). Could make a case either way. I suspect, and this is only a suspicion, that this isn't a complete wash, as someone who is on the fence on buying a ticket Friday versus Thursday might be swayed by a good seat being available. Don't know if it'll be a huge factor though. Be interesting to find out one way or the other. 👍
  3. @aabattery (for the New Zealand angle) @DeeCee (the same )
  4. About the same. And since I've been comparing this film to Solo in its pattern of presales for quite a while now, I'll let you draw your own conclusions about what I mean by that. NOTE:::: The above is my gut reaction at seeing the numbers as they come in, and not based on any sort of hard data/number crunching.
  5. It's getting few Fan Fest sales according to Fandango: Updated by @akvalley: 2018-11-13 13:58:16 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00) BUY TIME TICKETS MOVIE TITLE -------------------------------------------------- 2018-11-13 14:00:00 528 Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 447 Bohemian Rhapsody 2018-11-13 14:00:00 365 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald 2018-11-13 14:00:00 148 Overlord (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 134 A Star Is Born (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 112 The Girl in the Spiders Web 2018-11-13 14:00:00 97 Nobodys Fool 2018-11-13 14:00:00 60 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 2018-11-13 14:00:00 49 Venom (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 44 Halloween (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 39 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-11-13 14:00:00 36 Dr. Seuss The Grinch 3D (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 34 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event 2018-11-13 14:00:00 28 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald 3D 2018-11-13 14:00:00 28 Widows (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 22 Can You Ever Forgive Me 2018-11-13 14:00:00 21 Beautiful Boy (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 20 Ralph Breaks the Internet 2018-11-13 14:00:00 20 Instant Family (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 20 Creed II 2018-11-13 14:00:00 14 Boy Erased 2018-11-13 14:00:00 12 The Hate U Give 2018-11-13 14:00:00 11 Smallfoot 2018-11-13 14:00:00 10 Hunter Killer (2018) 2018-11-13 14:00:00 10 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-11-13 13:00:00 821 Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 701 Bohemian Rhapsody 2018-11-13 13:00:00 581 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald 2018-11-13 13:00:00 238 A Star Is Born (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 233 The Girl in the Spiders Web 2018-11-13 13:00:00 227 Overlord (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 159 Nobodys Fool 2018-11-13 13:00:00 130 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 2018-11-13 13:00:00 70 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-11-13 13:00:00 64 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event 2018-11-13 13:00:00 63 Venom (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 53 Dr. Seuss The Grinch 3D (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 53 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald 3D 2018-11-13 13:00:00 50 Widows (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 47 Halloween (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 45 Creed II 2018-11-13 13:00:00 45 Ralph Breaks the Internet 2018-11-13 13:00:00 39 Can You Ever Forgive Me 2018-11-13 13:00:00 36 Instant Family (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 31 Beautiful Boy (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 28 The Hate U Give 2018-11-13 13:00:00 20 Burn the Stage the Movie 2018-11-13 13:00:00 18 Hunter Killer (2018) 2018-11-13 13:00:00 18 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald Fantastic Fandom Event The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-11-13 13:00:00 16 Overlord The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-11-13 13:00:00 16 Boy Erased 2018-11-13 13:00:00 13 Free Solo 2018-11-13 13:00:00 12 Coldplay A Head Full of Dreams 2018-11-13 13:00:00 12 Smallfoot 2018-11-13 13:00:00 11 Thugs of Hindostan 2018-11-13 13:00:00 10 First Man (Posted an hour back as well because of the rollover effect) It... could be better for FB2, is probably the way I would put it.
  6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting [Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday] Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 102 10987 13876 20.82% Total Showings Added Today: 4 Total Seats Added Today: 499 Total Seats Sold Today: 203 .2859x as many tickets sold as Infinity War three days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales) .6402x as many tickets sold as Black Panther three days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) .6612x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 three days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) .6774x as many tickets sold as Solo three days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) 1.0056x as many tickets sold as JW:FK three days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) 1.4281x as many tickets sold as AM&tW three days before release (AM&tW had 18 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales) === Tue/Thr Breakdown: Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting: Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 6 717 1399 26.73% Total Seats Sold Today: 15 Thursday Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting: Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 96 10270 12477 17.69% Total Showings Added Today: 4 Total Seats Added Today: 499 Total Seats Sold Today: 188 ========= T-3 Comps for other movies: Black Panther: 311 tickets sold that day. 54.51% of all seats sold. Infinity War: 549 tickets sold that day. 72.37% of all seats sold. Deadpool 2: 374 tickets sold that day. 30.81% of all seats sold. Solo: 196 tickets sold that day. 38.74% of all seats sold. Fallen Kingdom: 443 tickets sold that day. 23.75% of all seats sold. Ant-Man & the Wasp: n/a tickets sold that day. 20.18% of all seats sold.
  7. Only for one more hour, I think. *checks* Yeah, the previous hour FB2 All Formats beat The Grinch All Formats by a little more than 30 tickets (34 to be exact). Two hours previously, The Grinch as ahead by about 100 or so, and it increased from there the earlier in the day.
  8. FB2 has just hit the number 1 slot over at Fandango (it had been in third for most of the day): -------------------------------------------------- 2018-11-12 21:00:00 542 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald 2018-11-12 21:00:00 468 Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018) 2018-11-12 21:00:00 428 Bohemian Rhapsody 2018-11-12 21:00:00 133 Overlord (2018) 2018-11-12 21:00:00 117 A Star Is Born (2018) 2018-11-12 21:00:00 78 The Girl in the Spiders Web 2018-11-12 21:00:00 78 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald The IMAX 2D Experience 2018-11-12 21:00:00 63 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Plus the other versions of FB2 further down the list.
  9. Of course there are. The caveats is: The number of tickets that had already been sold. See, this is the problem in a nutshell for FB2. It is selling at the pace, or thereabouts close enough, as Solo but didn't have the built in base that Solo had. Personally, and I'm just spitballing here, I think something around 10.5m to 11.5m sounds right. Maybe as high as 12m (very doubtful) or as low as 9m (if the bottom falls out). ==== Let my try to put all of this in a slightly different way. Right now, FB2 has many more tickets sold at this point in time than AM2 (11.2m) and Venom (10m), barring the Monday update which I'll do in about four to five hours from now. I'm just skeptical that it will come close to the ticket sales of THOSE two movies in the last few days of pre-sales. Thus I am best trying to figure out what FB2 will get in the next couple of days, and then figure out where it'll land. I'm somewhat confident it has enough of a built-in lead to pass Venom. AM2? That's the real question.
  10. Even Leibniz would have trouble arguing this one away. (deep cut for the philosophy nerds out there)
  11. Pretty sure I've been more optimistic about FB2 than most here. I was outlining a path to a 10m preview number a couple of weeks ago, don't forget (though then I was more doubtful about it than I am now). As for FB2 splitting it's presales, that's why I've been sub-tracking both dates. As I think about that, it does make me wonder how much of a Tuesday bounce it will get. On the other hand, I also wonder if that will deflate the Wed/Thr upswing slightly. Mostly I expect it to be a wash, when all is said and done.
  12. I think as percentage based comps, they're fine. Especially at the final number. The real danger on comps is the pace leading up to release. Here are the tickets sold on M-Th (I usually stop tracking about an hour or so before the main block of showings on Thr) for various movies I've tracked: M-Th: Black Panther: 3858 Infinity War: 3608 Deadpool 2: 4138 Solo: 1720 Fallen Kingdom: 3798 One of these is not like the other. Even JW2, which did a little more than Solo (15.3 v 14.1) on previews, rocketed past Solo in the final days I have partial data for Venom and AM&TW as well: T-Th: Ant-Man 2: 2582 Solo: 1524 --- Black Panther: 3591 Infinity War: 3059 Deadpool 2: 3764 Fallen Kingdom: 3355 Wed-Thr: Ant-Man 2: 2314 Venom: 2235 Solo: 1288 --- Black Panther: 2825 Infinity War: 2368 Deadpool 2: 3039 Fallen Kingdom: 2804 On these comps, Ant-Man 2 and Venom are clearly in a different tier than the bigger movies, but they still beat up on my poor Solo movie. =============== So why am I drawing attention to these comps? Mostly because I wasn't sure if the Friday bump that FB2 saw was due to the premiere or if it was a sign of a ramp up of sales. Now the jury isn't fully out yet, but here are the Sat+Sun comps: Black Panther: 386 Infinity War: 587 Deadpool 2: 638 Solo: 240 Fallen Kingdom: 344 Crimes of Grindelwald: 237 JW2 is already on its upswing. DP2 is breaking out all over the place. Solo? Flatline. Not a great sign for FB2 breaking out, is mostly what I am trying to show. ================ Now, all of that out of the way, I want to show why I think it's still possible that FB2 does clear 10m in previews. I have a yard marker in Venom, which hit 10m in previews on the nose. I have Venom at 4493 tickets sold locally at stop of tracking. As of last night, I had FB2 at 2686 tickets sold locally. Even if FB2 follows Solo EXACTLY from here on out (and remember, even AM&TW and Venom outsold it in the run up), I get 4406. That's 98% of Venom's final total. As much as it pains me to say it, I expect FB2 to outsell Solo over the next few relative days. If not by much. Still, that I get 98% of Venom if FB2 copies Solo from here on out does show, I think, why it might miss 10m.
  13. BTW, when I say it's mimicking Solo and awful lot I am NOT saying it will get 13m in previews. Just the opposite. I am talking about the fact that Solo just did not sell that many tickets in its run up to release, compared to all of the other movies I've tracked. Call it the difference between a soft launch and a hard launch.
  14. I think right now the ticket-per-day pace is much more indicative than the final number, and here FB2 has been mimicking Solo an awful lot. For instance, I did not like FB2's Sat and Sun number. At all. It was practically the same as Solo's, and is a warning sign that FB2 will not mimic the movies that sold a ton of tickets on M/T/W/Th. Now I DO think 10m+ is more likely than not now, but it's more a comparison to Ant Man & the Wasp (which I'll start comparing tonight) and Venom (tomorrow) and definitely NOT Jurassic World 2. I'm about to run out the door, so analysis with hard numbers will have to wait, but as I take a quick look at Fandango sales right not, I'm not exactly encouraged for the prospects of FB2.
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