Porthos

Yes, it is, but it's also got a little bit of random variation helping it. For the last three days or so, the overall sales were more in line with what I was expecting as I was compiling them, only to shoot up a bit after one or two of the theaters in town sold more tickets for an individual showing than others were in the region. I suspect, and this is only a suspicion, that the upper-medium tier of theaters in town are getting some of their very best seats sold at the prime time showings, and once those seats get nabbed, the seats sold will really drop off a cliff, baring random variation on any given day. I've been expecting this large drop off (and by that I mean seats sold in the entire region to hit the low 20s to low 40s [or lower!]) to occur any day now, and I've refrained from commenting on it too much, simply so I don't become the Poster Who Cried Crash. ... That being said, it is coming. Just a matter of which day it is. Perhaps today. Perhaps tomorrow. I can't say when it will happen, only that it will. Probably.

I would also add that looking at seats available on the Friday of the opening weekend and using that to worry about the film's OW is... a little premature. Unless we're talking about a huge behemoth of pre-sales, or during the holiday period, those simply aren't going to start selling in huge quantities this far out.

I haven't been posting them this go around because I don't want to get into Information Overload, but here are the percentage ranges of % of seats sold for ALL THEATERS in the region for ALL SHOWTIMES on Thursday (I don't track the actual OW coz who has time for that ) 100% 0 90%-99% 1 80%-89% 0 70%-79% 4 60%-69% 2 50%-59% 5 40%-49% 5 30%-39% 4 20%-29% 11 10%-19% 5 0%-9% 37 This is actually really good for a film (not part of the SW brand) 48 days out! Maybe there could be a sellout in the mix, but all in all it's perfectly cromulent. Here is the picture as of last night at Century Arden, which is one of the best (if not the best) attended theaters in town: Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold Arden 7:30 (3D) 59 110 46.36% 10:30 (3D) 105 110 4.55% 7:00 (2D) (PLF) 93 260 64.23% 10:00 (2D)(PLF) 198 260 23.85% 7:45 (2D) 56 110 49.09% 8:00 (2D) 78 161 51.55% 9:00 (2D) 131 161 18.63% 10:45 (2D) 105 110 4.55% 11:00 (2D) 144 161 10.56% 12:05a (2D) 157 161 2.48% 6:00 (2D) 11 161 93.17% 6:00 (2D) 16 55 70.91% Pretty much the standard pattern for a good-to-great theater: Early shows filling up first, 3D running noticeably behind. It is true that seats sold drop off a cliff starting around 9pm (and this is true across the region), but again those tend to fill up later so I wouldn't judge anything about that this far out. ==== Now this is (one of) the best attended theater(s) in town, so it has the highest base to work from. And, yes, there are some bottom feeders which have barely sold any tickets at all (who will be left nameless to protect their identity ). But for a film that is still 48 days out and has been selling tickets for only 10 days, it's pretty darn good.

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-49 Days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 81 8277 10608 21.97% Total Seats Sold Today: 50 .3762x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after ten days of pre-sales. 1.1338x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after ten days of pre-sales. 1.2993x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after ten-plus days of pre-sales. .6848x as many tickets sold as Solo after ten days of pre-sales. 1.5697x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after ten days of pre-sales. 1.8325x as many tickers sold as FB2 after ten-plus days of pre-sales. === Day Ten Comps: BP: 90 tickets sold [1 sellout/62 showings | 4047/6103 seats left | 33.69% sold] IW: 40 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings | 4855/11011 seats left | 56.27% sold] DP2: 82 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings | 9963/11757 seats left | 15.26% sold] Solo: 48 tickets sold [1 sellouts/87 showings | 5944/9348 seats left | 36.41% sold] JW:FK: 77 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings | 8628/10113 seats left | 14.68% sold] FB2: 49 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12105/13377 seats left | 9.51% sold] ========== As noted, tonight will be the last night I do any comps for any other movies except for Infinity War. The other movies are just getting too close to their World Premieres and/or too close to their opening nights for the comps to be of much use. Since IW had 41 days of pre-sales, however, I'll keep a track with it.

@aabattery will sort it all out!

Just decided to do a little experiment. I've said on multiple occasions that the local BP comp is a little off due to a new theater complex opening in town, as well more local theaters adding reserved seating in the last year. So I decided to check out what Captain Marvel would look like if that new theater wasn't around and I didn't have that new reserved seating info. Mooted Captain Marvel Adjusted Seat Chart [NOT AT ALL ACCURATE - STRICTLY FOR LIKE-FOR-LIKE COMP ONLY!!!!] Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 75 6339 8253 23.19% .97355x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of sales at equivalent theaters (1914 for CM vs 1966 for BP). ==== That it is even close to BP in a like-for-like battle just shows how much things have changed in the last year when it come pre-sales for Marvel, as well as showing what an utter monster BP was in its run up to its release. Black Panther exploded like wildfire over its last two weeks and really set the ball rolling for Marvel's domination of 2018. ------------ Now, yes, I can't simply just nuke an entire theater complex worth of sales and act like it doesn't exist, since many of those folks would have gone elsewhere in town. But it is still throwing off the comp a little, so I wanted to see what might have been without Regal Delta Shores existing. Perhaps the more interesting thing is the percentage of seats sold for CM going up slightly. Shows that the percent sold is being weighted down a bit by the theaters that just switched over to reserved seating (if I include Delta Shores, the percent sold is a nearly identical 23.02%). Of course the really noteworthy thing is the 32% seats sold for BP. Outside of Infinity War, the only other film close to that was Solo. And while Solo had very weak pre-sales for a Star Wars film (which presaged its own bombage), even weak SW pre-sales are a whole 'nother category from most films.

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-50 Days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 81 8327 10608 21.50% Total Seats Sold Today: 74 .3705x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after nine days of pre-sales. 1.1602x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales. 1.3324x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales. .6797x as many tickets sold as Solo after nine days of pre-sales. 1.6200x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after nine days of pre-sales. 1.8651x as many tickers sold as FB2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales. === Day NIne Comps: BP: n/a tickets sold [1 sellout/62 showings | 4137/6103 seats left | 32.21% sold] IW: 53 tickets sold [1 sellout/113 showings | 4855/11011 seats left | 55.91% sold] DP2: 98 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings | 10045/11757 seats left | 14.56% sold] Solo: 51 tickets sold [1 sellouts/87 showings | 5992/9348 seats left | 35.90% sold] JW:FK: 59 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings | 8705/10113 seats left | 13.92% sold] FB2: 19 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12154/13377 seats left | 9.14% sold]

Also there's the territory of low-hanging fruit. It's much easier for a film that still has lots of great seats left to sell more tickets on any given day versus one that has less-desirable seats. Same concept when it comes to more desirable show times as well as the better theaters in town. Right now, about 33 to 50 percent of the sales locally for CM are being driven by medium hanging fruit being plucked at the good-to-decent theaters at the good-to-decent show times in town. Enough so that I expect the per-day to crash any day now as the seats get less desirable. Folks will just wait for better showtimes to get added and/or wait 'till closer to release to get their tickets. Remember, we're still over a month and a half away. Hell, I'm actually a little bit surprised CM hasn't completely crashed locally (it has on Fandango nationally). And I think the reason is mostly the above: A couple of theaters added 'prime time' shows after the initial rush and they've been slowly filling up. Once they fill up, it will be a long slow dripdripdrip of very low sales. Which is why I'm nixing all comps after Thursday for a while, except for Infinity War. Even now the comps are starting to diverge a bit, but I tend to think they'll still hold useful information in context for another couple of days.

It's cumulative. CM had nearly 2.5x as many ticket sales on its first day than JK:FK did (1498 vs 595) And JK:FK WAS insanely walkup friendly. There's a reason why it blew past its mooted 125 OW projection/prediction.

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-51 Days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 81 8460 10608 20.25% Total Seats Sold Today: 59 .3616x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after eight days of pre-sales. 1.1226x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP] 1.2891x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] .6678x as many tickets sold as Solo after eight days of pre-sales. 1.6360x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after eight days of pre-sales. 1.8331x as many tickers sold as FB2 after eight-plus days of pre-sales. === Day Eight Comps: IW: 124 tickets sold [1 sellout/113 showings | 4908/11011 seats left | 55.43% sold] Solo: 86 tickets sold [1 sellout/87 showings | 6043/9348 seats left | 35.36% sold] JW:FK: 92 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings | 8764/10113 seats left | 13.34% sold] FB2: 48 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12173/13377 seats left | 9.00% sold]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-52 Days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 81 8460 10608 20.25% Total Seats Sold Today: 62 .3593x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after seven days of pre-sales. 1.0926x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP] 1.2547x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] .6673x as many tickets sold as Solo after seven days of pre-sales. 1.7088x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after seven days of pre-sales. 1.8581x as many tickers sold as FB2 after seven-plus days of pre-sales. === Day Seven Comps: IW: 116 tickets sold [1 sellout/113 showings | 5032/11011 seats left | 54.30% sold] Solo: 59 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings | 6129/9348 seats left | 34.44% sold] JW:FK: 106 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings | 8856/10113 seats left | 12.43% sold] FB2: 68 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12221/13377 seats left | 8.64% sold]

(semi-xpost with the Tracking Thread) Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-53 Days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 81 8522 10608 19.66% Total Showings Added Since Last Report: 18 Total Seats Added Since Last Report: 1904 Total Seats Sold Since Last Report (1/08/19): 588 .3558x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after six days of pre-sales. 1.0610x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP] 1.2185x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] .6601x as many tickets sold as Solo after six days of pre-sales. 1.8123x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after six days of pre-sales. 1.9173x as many tickers sold as FB2 after six-plus days of pre-sales. === Day Six Comps: IW: 1 sellout/107 showings | 4797/10660 seats left | 55.00% sold Solo: 0 sellouts/87 showings | 6188/9348 seats left | 33.80% sold JW:FK: 0 sellouts/97 showings | 8962/10113 seats left | 11.38% sold FB2: 0 sellouts/94 showings | 12289/13377 seats left | 8.13% sold ===== NOTE::: Since Black Panther debuted, one new theater complex in town opened, and I have tracking info from a couple of others when I didn't then, so that comp in particular is a little more off than others.

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-53 Days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 81 8522 10608 19.66% Total Seats Sold Today: 71 .3558x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after six days of pre-sales. 1.0610x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP] 1.2185x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] .6601x as many tickets sold as Solo after six days of pre-sales. 1.8123x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after six days of pre-sales. 1.9173x as many tickers sold as FB2 after six-plus days of pre-sales. === Day Six Comps: IW: 102 tickets sold [1 sellout/107 showings | 4797/10660 seats left | 55.00% sold] Solo: 73 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings | 6188/9348 seats left | 33.80% sold] JW:FK: 96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings | 8962/10113 seats left | 11.38% sold] FB2: 51 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12289/13377 seats left | 8.13% sold]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-54 Days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 81 8593 10608 19.00% Total Seats Sold Today: 98 .3498x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after five days of pre-sales. 1.0249x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP] 1.1770x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] .6527x as many tickets sold as Solo after five days of pre-sales. 1.9100x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after five days of pre-sales. 1.9431x as many tickers sold as FB2 after five-plus days of pre-sales. === Day Five Comps: IW: 99 tickets sold [1 sellout/107 showings | 4899/10660 seats left | 54.04% sold] Solo: 58 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings | 6261/9348 seats left | 33.02% sold] JW:FK: 97 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings | 9058/10113 seats left | 10.43% sold] FB2: 60 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12340/13377 seats left | 7.75% sold]