Lumos
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Posts posted by Lumos
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Slightly annoyed that this Thursday preview number topped DH2's midnight gross ( by a mere 3%). Knocked down to #3 now....still amazing its sitting so high though after nearly 7 years.
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I think this opening weekend proves that studios should be releasing more blockbusters in months like January, September and October. If there is an audience for a movie they will go and see it regardless of the time of year. And releasing a film in those months can actually be beneficial as the competition is next to none.
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LOL at the people still predicting around 80m. This is hitting 100M+ easily this weekend....
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I'm shocked at how many views this trailer has. It's up there with some of the biggest blockbusters today. No idea how this is going to translate to the box office...but having this many people talking about the film this early is a good thing. I could see this passing Get Out if the reviews are decent. Amazing year for horror!
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:
It'll pass Deathly Hallows Part 2 to be Emma Watson's biggest grosser by Sunday, if not Saturday. What are Harry Potter fans thoughts on that?
I think every Potter fan is pleased with the success Emma has seen post Potter. However this isn't really her biggest film....as far as tickets sold are concerned BATB and Sorcerer's Stone will likely be tied domestically. And WW almost half of the Potter films will sell more tickets than BATB. But yes, going by monetary value this will be her biggest hit...and I think that's something every Potter fan would be happy about....she's more relevant than ever before!
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I'm surprised so many of you are expecting a 100M 2nd weekend. I for one think 90M should be the target. There is a chance this has a similar Friday/Saturday increase as Cinderella (2015) which would only put it at 86M for the weekend. That is likely the worst case scenario. But still...100M is the best I see it doing this weekend. Even adjusted for inflation there have only been 5 films in history to do this....and their runs were legendary. They all adjust to over 600M today.
I'm predicting 90-95m 2nd weekend.
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Holy shit! That's a sexy Sunday number! This feels very similar to shrek 2 back in 2004. Kind of a slow start out of the gate and then jaw dropping Saturday and Sunday numbers. Always thought this was headed for 500m+.....and with a 179m OW I can't see it missing the mark. Will probably top TDK unadjusted as well. Amazing numbers!
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23 minutes ago, baumer said:
When is the last time you had a Saturday bump of more than 25% from its opening Friday?
When you look at the 10 biggest unadjusted OW's of all time I think BatB stands apart from almost all of them. Demographically it is easily the most family friendly film on the list and it really doesn't feel like a film people have to see in the first 24 hours. Not saying Saturday is locked for 60m....but it's certainly possible. PG rated family films tend to do well on saturdays.
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Best case scenerio
Fri: 64m
Sat: 64m (+36% minus previews)
Sun: 48m
Total: 176m
Worst case
Fri: 64m
Sat: 55m (+17%)
Sun: 41m
Total: 160m
Im thinking this should have a really strong Saturday though. Expecting a 170m+ finish
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Get Out - 3,574,430
Smaller increase than last Tuesday.....but still down a miniscule amount from last week. Still headed for a sub 25% drop this weekend IMO...
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It may not be a lock yet but I'd be surprised if Get Out fails to reach 200M DOM. It's headed for another sub 25% drop this weekend...and there's been nothing about its run so far that would suggest that 200M is unattainable. What an insane run.
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45 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:
There needs to be a Lego Hogwarts Adventures movie after this.
If they adapt the Cursed Child they should do it in Lego format. I could probably take the plot more seriously that way lol...
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5 weeks at # 1 for Rogue one in Canada! That's amazing! But not all that surprising....films are quite a bit leggier in that market. I'm still pissed that Tribute stopped reporting box office figures from Canada. Would have liked to have known the totals for RO, FD, Deadpool and FB for 2016.
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2 hours ago, James said:
Beasts is a BEAST! It will finish with about 810-815m WW and around 580-590m OS. Considering that DH2's OS adjusts to about 790m today, that is a 75% retention rate. And from your average Potter movie it actually hasn't lost audience. DH1 adjusts to about 560m OS.
I love this image:
Worldwide (Unadjusted)Rank Title (click to view) Studio Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % Year 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,341.5 $381.0 28.4% $960.5 71.6% 2011 2 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $974.8 $317.6 32.6% $657.2 67.4% 2001 3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 WB $960.3 $296.0 30.8% $664.3 69.2% 2010 4 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix WB $939.9 $292.0 31.1% $647.9 68.9% 2007 5 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $934.4 $302.0 32.3% $632.5 67.7% 2009 6 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB $896.9 $290.0 32.3% $606.9 67.7% 2005 7 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets WB $879.0 $262.0 29.8% $617.0 70.2% 2002 8 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $796.7 $249.5 31.3% $547.1 68.7% 2004 9 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them WB $794.9 $229.2 28.8% $565.7 71.2% 2016 TOTAL: $8,518.3 $2,619.3 30.7% $5,899.1 69.3% - AVERAGE: $946.5 $291.0 30.7% $655.5 69.3% - What? DH2 made 960m overseas. And would be over 1 billion overseas adjusted for inflation. So FB retained around 60% of DH2 audience....not 75%.
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2 hours ago, SWXII said:
I remember the days when people claimed Potter would leave Star Wars in the dust bin of history. Doesn't seem like they did their research.
The box office climate has changed so much since the early 2000's. Adjusted for inflation & 3D and taking into account that many overseas markets are much bigger than they use to be, the first HP film would have likely came close to 2 billion in today's bo climate. And HP 2, 4 & 8 over 1.5 billion. They were huge hits. SS and DH2 were the biggest non-James Cameron films of all time worldwide when they were released. Is Star Wars a bigger film series than Potter? Probably yes. Star Wars is a beast there's no denying that. But Potter is a close second. Also, Potter was always more of a literary phenomenon than a film phenomenon. Even if the films were box office duds the series would go down in history forever. Nearly 500 million copies sold worldwide. So if we're comparing box office I would give the edge to SW. If we're comparing actual popularity of the franchises ....I'd say they are pretty much tied worldwide...probably give Potter the slight edge.
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Great number for FB. This should do well over the holidays even with a steep theater count loss this upcoming weekend. 240m here we come $$$$
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2 billion is basically the new 1 billion. The box office climate has changed so much overseas in the last 10 years. 10 years ago there were about 3 films that managed to hit 1 billion. Now there's 26 and most blockbuster franchises are pretty much expected to pump out 1 billion dollar hits. Potter and LOTR would have been beasts in today's box office climate....as they were 15 years ago with their legendary 1 billion dollar grosses.
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8 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:
Obviously they were both hugeeee...
P.S: Do we know how would the WW total of HP1 adjust today? I know that the 300m DOM is like 480m adjusted but what about the OS numbers?
Philosopher's Stone was the highest grossing movie of all time behind only Titanic back in 2001. Adjusted for inflation and given a modest 3D bump would give it 1.7 billion. Then when you factor in certain markets being far larger today than they were back then....Philosopher's Stone likely would have done close to 2 billion in today's dollars and box office climate.
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40 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:
Well that doesn't feel good for FB right? RO effect alredy started???
It's the smallest Sunday-Monday drop yet and it's down like 31% from last Monday. That is a fantastic number. Lol
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27 minutes ago, eXtacy said:
I am seeing more of a 228-232m finish.
Could definitely happen. Potter always had a Xmasy vibe to it which it helped it over the holidays I think. Not sure if FB will receive the same benefit. And Rogue One won't help its legs. Still 228-232 seems like a worst case scenerio. I'm sticking to my guns with a 240m finish
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5 minutes ago, eXtacy said:
38m after a 10m weekend with Rogue One coming out. This thing is having 42% drop against no competition the last two weeks. It will drop over 50% next weekend.
Right. And it should stabilize nicely afterwards. Potter films were extremely leggy over the Xmas season. And seeing as FB is getting better WOM and has been having better drops over the last month it seems silly to just assume this will drop into obscurity once Rogue One is released.
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7 minutes ago, eXtacy said:
Yeah its not getting to 235m after this drop...
Oh yes it is. It'll be at almost 200m by the end of the weekend. 35m after a 10m weekend won't be hard. Especially with the holidays around the corner. Also how is this a bad drop? DH1 and GOF both dropped 50% on their 4th weekends. This is headed for a sub 45% drop. FB can drop harder than both those films for the remainder of its run and still hit 235m.
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Excellent number for FB. DH1 only increased 113% on the same Friday.....and it pretty much matched GOF's Friday increase which is very impressive considering that film had much bigger Friday increases. 235-240m is looking pretty good right now even with a steep drop next week.
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Weekend Thread 11/16 - 11/18 - Grindelwald $25.7M Friday, Instant Family at $4.5M Friday
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Lumos
Jesus, the over reactions in this thread are ridiculous. There isn’t anything to suggest that this can’t still do 70m OW and 200m DOM. We have 1 preview number which is right around the same ballpark as the first and people are freaking out. Also we have opening day numbers from numerous overseas markets where numbers are up quite a bit. And the bad reviews? As someone whose actually seen then film it was a huge improvement over the first film. Definitely a film made exclusively for the fans though - which explains critics panning it. As a HP fan I couldn’t be happier. Worldwide this will probably come in higher and I can assure you there is a lot more positive word of mouth coming from this film then what this forum would suggest.