Lumos
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Posts posted by Lumos
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I've always thought people over-simplified the finale effect. The last instalment in a film series isn't going to automatically receive a boost just because it's the last film. Finale's do really well when the series is building up to one pinnacle moment....something the entire franchise has been building up to. Star Wars and Harry Potter are great examples. How did Anakin Skywalker become Darth Vader? Will Harry die or will it be Voldemort? Twilight and The Hunger Games never had these big questions....hence mediocre finale numbers.
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Are people seriously doubting that JW can top 100M this weekend? Even if it falls short it's likely going to come damn close with 98-99m. I'm seeing
Fri: 29.2m (+63%)
Sat: 38.8m (+33%)
Sun: 33.8m (-13%)
2nd weekend: 101.8m
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With Fathers Day, I see this doing around 100-105M for its second weekend. Right on track for 600m IMO....and if it gets some good late legs, surpassing TA could be on the table.
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I'm curious to see what JW opened to in Canada...and where it ranks among all time openers. Has rth disclosed this number?
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JW would have probably done 12-15 if it had a midnight release. So JW will need about 213m to completely cast away any doubts of whether it would break the record with out the five extra hours. Hopefully the upper end of rth's Sunday estimate is right...This is gonna be interesting. Jurassic will break the OW record but wouldn't have if previews didn't start at 7 whereas Avengers' started at midnight. I wonder if Disney will be a sore loser and say anything.
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Where are you getting the idea that this is under performing in Canada? Toronto is not representive of the entire country. I can assure you in western canada there is plenty of demand....sell outs everwhere. Not sure where JW will rank among among all time OWs in Canada but I'm sure it's in the top 5.Anyone want to take a wild stab in the dark why jw is not at all time buzz here in canada unlike in the states?
I am truly dumbfounded.
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I've been following the box office since I was 11 years old (2003). After 12 years of following the box office...for me....this is the most shocking OW of all time. I thought 145m was the best case scerio, and this could feasibly hit 220m (a 75 m difference). I'm speechless. I did not expect a non-marvel film to break the 200m barrier for another few years at least.
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Soooo....is this gonna top DH2?
Never thought that was even remotely possible. If this does 170m, this is one of the most impressive openings ever.
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I can't say I'm surprised. I had to give up my Friday tickets that I bought it advance due to unexpected plans. Well...let's just say it wasn't difficult to find people who were willing to take them off my hands. Also heard tons of co workers talking about the movie which surprised me because I work with mostly females. Definitely led me to believe that a 15m+ Thursday number was possible.
Anyways....great number. 150M + and 350m+ dom look to be in good shape.
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Strangely the best comparison this drop has is the Star Wars prequels. Attack of the clones retained 71.9% of TPM original gross while AOU will do about 72.5% of TA.
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If AOU makes 450m it will do 72.5% of what TA did. That's a pretty steep drop. If SM2 had performed in the same way it would have made only 288m! If HP2 performed similarily it would have made 230m...
The novelty of seeing all the avengers in the same film obviously played a much bigger role than anyone expected.
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Monday is down 30% compared to TA Monday....and I see no reason why it should have better drops/increases than TA in the next few days. 500M is definitely not happening....480M is best case scenario....460M is where I see this landing.
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AOU made 66.67% of what TA made on Monday. TA also made 424m after its opening weekend, so if AOU makes 66.67% of 424M (283m) after its opening of 191m we are looking at a total of 474M. But that's probably best case scenario....450M should be the target at this point.
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It still bothers me that this movie had 7pm Thursday showings. IMO this film made $160m OW....Thursday should not be included. None of the other films this weekend attached their Thursday gross to this weekend. Silly studios trying to fool people into thinking their films opened bigger than they actually did. I miss the days when films were released at 12:00AM Friday.
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It's only 14m higher than IM3? That's what you guys are using as your reason to be disappointed with this number? News flash. IM3 had an absolutely gargantuan opening weekend. The fact that AOU came within 10% of TA is pretty impressive. A 207m OW In 2012 was way before it's time IMO....
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If I was a Marvel fan....which I'm not....I would be complacent with anything above 170m. That would still mean that Marvel has the three biggest OWs of all time. Which is pretty huge.
It also raises the question....what will be the first non-Marvel film to open above 170m?
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I've just been so giddy all morning knowing that DH2 is still retaining the OD crown. Throughout the 2000s the OD record was broken nearly EVERY YEAR. And then DH2 came out and retained it for 4 years....and for all we know....it could be 6 or 7 years!! By the time a film actually does beat it, I think people will just have to sit back in complete awe of how long DH2 has kept this record. SO HAPPY
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Soooo.....when will a film break DH2 OD? Avengers 2 had the best chance of any film and even it couldn't do it....and with a December release date I don't see Star Wars doing it either. Maybe the third Avengers film?
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Wait....what? I woke up this morning expecting estimates to be close to 100m. And instead it went down to 85m and DH2 holds on to the OD record!!!! For who knows how much longer? Yesss!!! So ecstatic!
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IMO Opening day should be everything it makes in the first 24hrs....meaning anything made after 7pm tonight shouldn't count! Or Thursday should have been counted as a separate day. I mean, if DH2 had 7pm Thursday showings it would have been well over 100m by the end of Friday. And that was with 2011 ticket prices and a lower 3d share....
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Strange. 95m is really good but it doesn't really impress me. DH2 obliterated the OD record at the time.....20m higher than any film before its time. This is just a slight increase over the OD record. And it would need to do well over 100m for one to argue it even sold more tickets than DH2 in the first 24hrs. Nonetheless....a very solid OD! The piblic seems to to eat these films up like crazy.
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It's so sad to see HP lose the OD record. I knew it had to come eventually....just been dreading the day it would actually happen! Still...DH2 is the most attended OD of all time. Unless AOU does 100m+....but I don't see that happening....
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Based off Thursday showings and how strong the evening looks, I'm predicting about 94m for the OD. Will be sad to see HP lose the OD record....but it did hold onto it for nearly 4 years....MUCH longer than any film in recent history.
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I'm surprised no one has mentioned the original Spider-Man. First movie to open over 100m, a 70m second weekend and a DOM gross that adjusts to 550m without 3d.
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Weekend Estimates (pg49): Mockingjay 101M | Spectre 14.6M | Night Before 10.1M | SITE 6.63M
in Numbers and Data
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LMAO! oops....i mean anakin. Hopefully nobody's too upset haha