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kesleyk

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  1. kesleyk
    Was about 5.2% low for last week's guess for ta. Here's this week's guesses:T-1.5W-1.2H-1.3W/E-6.2I now don't see ta missing 600m. I know I'm late, but I'm here. Although, I don't think it'll happen until august.
  2. kesleyk
    125m may be comparatively low, but I was more impressed with the fx that was purchased by prom's 125m than I was mib's 225m.
  3. kesleyk
    1.9 is a 2% increase from 1.86 wed2.0 would be 7.4% from wed
  4. kesleyk
    1 hobbit2 dkr3 star trek 24 skyfall5 total recall6 re57 im3
  5. kesleyk
    Just TA. I will probably follow DKR even though I'm starting to worry about bane.Last week I had:T-2.6W-2.1H-2.4W/E-20 (total 27.1 vs. actual 29.0, about 6.7% low)
  6. kesleyk
    Outstanding. You may be right, and there is a greater probability that you are correct as compared with my guess. I only take exception to your contention that it is somehow mathematically provable, or even 100% guaranteed. I have nothing tied to this, and it doesn't particularly hurt when my guesses are wrong and yours are right. I still enjoy seeing how close my model works regardless. Cheers.
  7. kesleyk
    you haven't a background in mathematics/statistics I take it. If the odds are in fact 100% then to have a proper betting line would mean you would be risking all you put up for 0 additional in winnings. As well, that would mean the individual(s) betting against you would have to put up nothing to win everything put up by you since their betting line would be 0%. I would rather risk nothing in this scenario since the REAL odds are better than the offered odds.
  8. kesleyk
    Hehe. Was just making fun of the fact that I'm "straight-to-dvd".
  9. kesleyk
    Mathematical certainty? Not. I don't put much stock in how predecessors tracked, but even looking at IM shows that every tuesday dropped from monday between opening w/e and july 15th except 6/3 (+8.6) and 7/8 (+0.6). 9 of 11 were drops, including 5 of 7 in june and july. You may be right, and it may be more likely, but this is not a mathematically provable concept.
  10. kesleyk
    You put it at 2.4-2.3 then? As a novice that seems too high but that may be why you have the big-boy title.
  11. kesleyk
    Perhaps. Outside shot of 2.2, but I'll sick with my ridiculous guess for now.
  12. kesleyk
    I obviously have no great insight, but why wouldn't it?
  13. kesleyk
    Why not? This will be the 5th domestic tuesday. Three of the previous four dropped from the preceding monday. two of three if you don't count memorial monday.
  14. kesleyk
    About 6.7% low last week, better. this week's guess:T-1.9W-1.4H-1.7W/E-11.4
  15. kesleyk
    Agreed. I don't know where the 200+m went, but it didn't look a expensive as that. I liked it, 3/5.
  16. kesleyk
    I was low by 20% last week, so my guesses are obviously wild. Here are this week's guesses tho:T - 2.6mW - 2.1mH - 2.4mW/E - 20mI can see lee drops due to lack of competition this week; I was expecting mib to compete better than it now appears to be doing.
  17. kesleyk
    alicia's career was over when she put on weight. The leather just put a nail in it.
  18. kesleyk
    I don't feel criticized, just don't have much reason to give.
  19. kesleyk
    Not modeling it after any other movie, just statistical modeling considering w/w and d/d results combined with how it seems likely to fall out with other openings, holidays, etc. Right now I see less than million WEEK days starting first week of june which is also why I still don't see more than 560 total. Again, I'm new at this so obviously could be way off, but my guesses don't seem to be any less guess-worthy than anyone else at this point.
  20. kesleyk
    Since my guesses weren't completely blown out of the water last week (about 2% under wed-sun) I will give it another go.Tue - 4.0mWed - 2.9mThur - 3.1mwe (3 day) - 30m
  21. kesleyk
    Thanks baumer. Memorial weekend I dont see 40m. Im new to this, but the model I've put together looks like about 30m. Time will tell I guess.
  22. kesleyk
    6.6m wed.6.2m thur.54m we530m-560m total
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