This is true. This will not play like a sequel. The same way that Top:Gun Maverick did not play as a sequel. The gap between films is too long. That does not mean that Avatar 2 will out-gross Spider-Man: No Way Home, but it also does not mean that it won’t. It does mean that Rogue One was never a good comparison.
This movie’s run will start to become more clear after this 3rd weekend, which was always going to be the case. Then we’ll see how leggy this movie will be. If strong legs do develop, it will be fun to go back and read a lot of the early negative comments again.