[Weekend Thread | Bourne 60M, Trek 24M, Bad Moms 23.4M, Pets 18.2M]

1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Bro...most Denzel movies don't make 100mil. 

They're remarkably consistent, though. With the exception of the indie movies he directs from time to time, Denzel's star power almost guarantees $70 million+ DOM (adjusted for inflation)

 

Denzel churns out hits regularly and M7 very well could be his biggest hit yet. 

[Wednesday: Nerve - $3.75M (1.1M previews), Trek 4.9M, Pets 3.8M]

27 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Any updated predictions for Pets total by end of run? 

$10 million ($314 million)

$5 million ($322 million)

$3 million ($326 million)

$2 million ($328 million)

$2.75 million/$3.5 million ($332 million)

$340 million DOM

 

If Suicide Squad does $125 million+ OW, everything will get hurt. Pete's Dragon is in Pets' demo. Kubo will get double features with Pets, so it should hold okay. And Labor Day, plus second-run theaters should get Pets to $340-345 million IMO.

 

How about you? 

[Wednesday: Nerve - $3.75M (1.1M previews), Trek 4.9M, Pets 3.8M]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

http://deadline.com/2016/07/nerve-tuesday-preview-box-office-1201793083/

 

They say Nerve did $3.75M yesterday, but $4.8M total. Not sure if that's cause they made a mistake in counting Tuesday's numbers into Wednesday or not.

 

Nerve

$1.1 million

$2.65 million

$2.6 million 

$3.7 million 

$4.9 million

$3.5 million 

$12.1 million/$18.4 million 

 

Star Trek Beyond

$4.5 million 

$7 million

$9.5 million

$7.2 million 

$23.8 million 2nd weekend ($105.8 million 10-day) 

 

Pets

$3.7 million 

$5.1 million

$6.7 million

$5.2 million 

$17.0 million 4th weekend ($294.9 million 24-day) 

 

 

 

 

[Hacksaw Ridge | Nov 4 2016 | Lionsgate | WWII movie directed by Mel Gibson. Starring Andrew Garfield, Sam Worthington, Luke Bracey, Teresa Palmer. The movie gets the BOZ/Tele/WB seal of approval.]

I could see this doing $100-120 million DOM if it's well-done. Unlike Billy Lynn and Allied, I think it'll appeal to a similar demo as Lone Survivor, Act of Valor and American Sniper. 

[Sing | Dec. 21, 2016 | Illumination | Beats Moana domestic. The McConaissance Continues]

6 hours ago, Murgatroyd said:

 

Frozen was the family movie for the 2013 holidays, and had near-unprecedented legs after that, and still barely made it past 400. 350+ will be hard to achieve.

In most years, I'd say yes.

 

But 2016 will possibly see 10-11 films do $300 million+ DOM. The year has been top-heavy and Disney already has 3 that passed $350 million DOM (with Zootopia just under the mark and Rogue One likely to pass $350 million, too).

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Moana do $350-355 million. Especially since it'll have a stronger 5-day opening than Frozen (could go as high as $125-130 million 5-day IMO). Granted, $270-320 million is the safe predict. 

[Sing | Dec. 21, 2016 | Illumination | Beats Moana domestic. The McConaissance Continues]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

lol, no one thinks Sing is going to be nominated for Best Picture.

 

And why can't the top 12 DOM be at least $285 million?

 

I know 

 

It's just not common. From 1980 to 2015, only 2009 had more than 7 films do $285 million+ DOM in a single year. 

 

Granted, 2016 is on pace for 10 (Pets, Rogue One, SS, Moana) and Fantastic Beasts could do $280-300 million DOM, too. (making it 11). 

 

If Passengers and Sing somehow did it, that'd put the number at 13 - five more than the previous record 

 

[Sing | Dec. 21, 2016 | Illumination | Beats Moana domestic. The McConaissance Continues]

1 hour ago, Alpha said:

This is premiering at TIFF?

 

Put in the Best Picture race already. 

 

Zootopia would get nominated for Best Picture before Sing  

 

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

This is the first Illumination release since DM1 that I don't have a set prediction or feel for gross. I'm pretty confident in it hitting at least 200 with their marketing behind it, but how close it gets to 300 or if it can actually break that mark I think will depend on just how big Moana and Rogue One are. Both are coming before it and both will have the family market, so fatigue could be a real problem here. Again though, less than 200 seems pretty unfathomable for Illumination at the moment. 

 

Kinda thinking November-December 2016 will be top-heavy. 6-7 big hits and everything else does decent enough. 

 

1. Rogue One: $445 million 
2. Moana: $355 million 
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $295 million 
4. Passengers: $285 million 
5. Sing: $235 million 
6. Doctor Strange: $200 million 
7. La La Land: $145 million 
8. Hacksaw Ridge: $115 million 
9. Trolls: $110 million 
10. Silence: $105 million 

Can't see all of that happening since that'd mean the entire top 12 DOM would be at $285 million+ DOM  and I might be lowballing Sing depending on late marketing and WOM. 

 

 

 

 

[Monday #s, Pets 4.2m]

31 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

nah - Shark Tale was a non-factor with Sponge / Incredibles but the weekend Sponge opened spots 2, 3 & 4 were all animated with Shark down at #17

Kinda figured Shark Tale would miss, but I remembered all four opened late 2004, so I gave it a shot 

 

3 is probably the highest number of aninated films we'll see in the top 10 at once since the fourth eligible one will almost always be #11-20. 

[Monday #s, Pets 4.2m]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Is this the first time 4 animated films have been in the top 10?

 

Question asked by the blog cartoon brew.

Maybe Incredibles, SpongeBob, Polar Express and Shark Tale in 2004? 

 

[Sing | Dec. 21, 2016 | Illumination | Beats Moana domestic. The McConaissance Continues]

7 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

How much are you expecting for it? Am thinking 200m at the moment. But I think it has the potential to go higher esp after the TIFF announcement gave me more confidence about its potential quality. It will screen 3 months before release so that's a big confidence sign.

My guess is that Rogue One, Passengers and Sing will all thrive since none of them share a significant audience. 

 

I Am Legend/National Treasure 2/Alvin is the best comparison for the three. The only difference being that November 2016 has three strong films (all three could do $200 million+ DOM) while November 2007 had a few mid-level hits... and that was it. 

 

Rogue One: $120 million/$425 million 

Passengers: $50 million ($75 million 5-day)/$270 million

Sing: $45 million ($65 million 5-day)/$225 million 

 

With good reviews/WOM and a solid late marketing effort by Illumination, it could go even higher IMO. 

 

[2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?]

14 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

My yearly top 10 prediction atm:

 

1. Episode VIII - $775m

2. Spider-Man Homecoming - $415m

3. Beauty and the Beast - $400m

4. The LEGO Batman Movie - $375m

5. Despicable Me 3 - $345m

6. Fast 8 - $310m

7. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - $305m

8. Coco - $300m

9. Wonder Woman - $300m

10. Justice League - $275m

 

Would love to throw Uncharted in there as the big breakout of the year, but past video game adaptations make that pretty hard to put confidence in. Still, it has by far the most blockbuster potential of any video game adaptation ever if done right. 

 

Pretty close to mine, actually. I do think GotG2 will increase since there's really nothing during the month of May other than POTC5 (thinking $160-180 million DOM). 

1. Star Wars Episode VIII: $720 million 
2. Beauty and the Beast: $430 million
3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $420 million 
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $355 million 
5. The LEGO Batman Movie: $345 million 
6. Despicable Me 3: $310 million
7. Fast 8: $295 million 
8. Coco: $285 million 
9. Wonder Woman: $275 million 
10. Thor - Ragnorak: $260 million 
11. Justice League: $245 million 
12. Kong - Skull Island: $215 million 
13. Dunkirk: $210 million
14. War of the Planet of the Apes: $205 million 
15. Transformers - The Last Knight: $200 million 

[2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?]

19 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think at this point a year ago Independence Day, X-men, BFG, and Ice Age would've been evidence of a "huge" 2016

BFG and Ice Age 5 never looked that big. 

 

I do agree on IDR and X-Men, though. If they had done $190-220 million DOM each, this summer would be seen as fairly solid. 

[2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?]

2 hours ago, Belakor said:

2017 is going to be massive. just the first trimester is full with potential hits (XXX Cage, Trainspotting 2 , Dark Tower, Lego Batman, Wolverine 3, King Arthur, Power Rangers, Kong).

XXX 3: $90 million

Trainspotting 2: $40 million 

Dark Tower: $125 million

LEGO Batman: $345 million

Wolverine 3: $160 million

Kong - Skull Island: $215 million 

Power Rangers: $50 million 

 

I don't see T2 or Power Rangers being hits - one is a niche sequel that could underwhelm and the other is a reboot that comes after Wolverine 3, Kong and B&TB... with Ghost and Fast 8 in the few weeks to follow. 

[Lego Batman | Feb 10, 2017 | Teaser Trailer on Page 7! Billy Dee Williams to voice Two-Face.]

25 minutes ago, Goffe said:

this will be to Lego the Movie what Cloudy 2 was to the first one. Someone will try to ape the predecessor's humor style and will fail MISERABLY.

I think the difference is that Cloudy 2 wasn't a sequel most asked for. Plus, one could tell from the trailers the humor wouldn't be as sharp as Cloudy 1.

 

LEGO Batman is a spinoff that hits all of the right notes with its trailer. I could see it doing $250-350 million DOM, especially since it'll be the first major blockbuster of 2017. 

[Lego Batman | Feb 10, 2017 | Teaser Trailer on Page 7! Billy Dee Williams to voice Two-Face.]

$97 million

$68 million/$85 million ($210 million) 

$35.5 million ($253 million) 

$24 million ($285 million) 

$17.5 million ($314 million) 

$8 million ($328 million) 

$4.25 million ($335 million) 

$2 million ($338 million) 

$1 million ($339 million)

$346 million DOM 

[Weekend Prediction thread 6/28-6/30 Play the Derby]

7/29-7/31

1. Jason Bourne: $42 million 
2. Bad Moms: $31 million 
3. Star Trek Beyond: $28 million ($117 million)
4. The Secret Life of Pets: $20.5 million ($302 million)
5. Lights Out: $12 million ($45 million)
6. Ghostbusters: $9.5 million ($106 million) 
7. Ice Age - Collision Course: $9.5 million ($40 million) 
8. Nerve: $7 million ($11 million) 
9. Finding Dory: $5.5 million ($471 million)
10. The Legend of Tarzan: $4 million ($124 million)

8/5-8/7

1. Suicide Squad: $147 million 
2. Bad Moms: $21 million ($69 million)
3. Jason Bourne: $19 million ($81 million)
4. Star Trek Beyond: $13.5 million ($144 million)
5. The Secret Life of Pets: $12 million ($326 million)
6. Nine Lives: $8 million 
7. Ghostbusters: $5 million ($116 million)
8. Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.5 million ($50 million) 
9. Lights Out: $4 million ($52 million)
10. Finding Dory: $3.5 million ($480 million)

8/12-8/14

1. Suicide Squad: $55 million ($257 million)
2. Pete's Dragon: $28 million 
3. Sausage Party: $23 million 
4. Florence Foster Jenkins: $15 million 
5. Jason Bourne: $12.5 million ($103 million) 
6. Bad Moms: $11.5 million ($88 million) 
7. The Secret Life of Pets: $6 million ($335 million)
8. Nine Lives: $5 million ($15 million)
9. Ghostbusters: $3 million ($121 million) 
10. Lights Out: $2.5 million ($56 million)

8/19-8/21

1. Suicide Squad: $30 million ($302 million)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings: $23.5 million 
3. Pete's Dragon: $15 million ($48 million) 
4. Ben-Hur: $13.5 million 
5. War Dogs: $11.5 million
6. Florence Foster Jenkins: $11 million ($31 million)
7. Sausage Party: $8 million ($37 million) 
8. Bad Moms: $7.5 million ($99 million)
9. Jason Bourne: $7 million ($113 million) 
10. Nine Lives: $3 million ($19 million) 

8/26-8/28

1. Suicide Squad: $20.5 million ($333 million)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings: $17 million ($46 million) 
3. Pete's Dragon: $12 million ($64 million)
4. Florence Foster Jenkins: $9 million ($43 million) 
5. Ben-Hur: $8.5 million ($25 million)  
6. War Dogs: $7.5 million ($23 million) 
7. Don't Breathe: $7 million 
8. Bad Moms: $6 million ($107 million) 
9. Jason Bourne: $5 million ($120 million) 
10. Mechanic - Resurrection: $5 million 

9/2-9/5

1. Kubo and the Two Strings: $17.5 million/$25 million ($76 million)
2. Suicide Squad: $16 million/$20.5 million ($361 million) 
3. The Light Between Oceans: $13 million/$16.5 million 
4. Pete's Dragon: $11 million/$15.5 million ($83 million) 
5. Florence Foster Jenkins: $8 million/$10 million ($56 million) 
6. Morgan: $6.5 million/$7.75 million 
7. Ben-Hur: $6 million/$7.25 million ($35 million) 
8. War Dogs: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($32 million) 
9. Bad Moms: $5 million/$6 million ($115 million) 
10. Jason Bourne: $4.5 million/$5.25 million ($127 million) 

9/9-9/11

1. Sully: $28 million 
2. When the Bough Breaks: $17 million 
3. The Light Between Oceans: $8 million ($26 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $7.5 million ($85 million) 
5. Suicide Squad: $7 million ($370 million) 
6. Before I Wake: $5.5 million 
7. Pete's Dragon: $5 million ($89 million) 
8. The Wild Life: $5 million 
9. Florence Foster Jenkins: $4.5 million ($62 million) 
10. Jason Bourne: $2.5 million ($130 million) 

9/16-9/18

1. Blair Witch: $33 million 
2. Sully: $19 million ($56 million) 
3. Bridget Jones' Baby: $17 million 
4. Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $13 million 
5. Snowden: $8 million 
6. Kubo and the Two Strings: $6.5 million ($93 million) 
7. The Light Between Oceans: $6 million ($34 million) 
8. When the Bough Breaks: $5.5 million ($26 million) 
9. Suicide Squad: $4.5 million ($377 million) 
10. Pete's Dragon: $4 million ($94 million) 

9/23-9/25

1. The Magnificent Seven: $64 million 
2. Storks: $48 million 
3. Sully: $12 million ($73 million) 
4. Bridget Jones' Baby: $10 million ($32 million) 
5. Blair Witch: $10 million ($49 million) 
6. Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $6 million ($22 million) 
7. The Light Between Oceans: $3.5 million ($39 million) 
8. Snowden: $3 million ($13 million) 
9. Suicide Squad: $2.5 million ($381 million) 
10. When the Bough Breaks: $2.5 million ($30 million) 

9/30-10/2

1. The Magnificent Seven: $37.5 million ($119 million) 
2. Storks: $27 million ($84 million) 
3. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $24.5 million 
4. Deepwater Horizon: $18 million 
5. Masterminds: $8 million 
6. Sully: $7.5 million ($84 million) 
7. The Edge of Seventeen: $5 million 
8. Bridget Jones' Baby: $4 million ($38 million) 
9. Blair Witch: $3.5 million ($54 million) 
10. Hillsong - Let Hope Rise: $3 million ($26 million) 

10/7-10/9

1. The Magnificent Seven: $24 million ($153 million) 
2. The Girl on the Train: $21.5 million 
3. Storks: $20.5 million ($110 million) 
4. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $16 million ($45 million) 
5. Birth of a Nation: $12.5 million 
6. Deepwater Horizon: $8 million ($29 million) 
7. Sully: $4.25 million ($91 million) 
8. Masterminds: $3.5 million ($13 million) 
9. Bridget Jones' Baby: $2.5 million ($42 million) 
10. The Edge of Seventeen: $2 million ($8 million)

10/14-10/16

1. The Accountant: $26 million 
2. The Magnificent Seven: $18 million ($182 million) 
3. Storks: $16.5 million ($135 million) 
4. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children: $12 million ($63 million) 
5. Birth of a Nation: $10.5 million ($28 million) 
6. The Girl on the Train: $10 million ($38 million)
7. Kevin Hart - What Now?: $7 million 
8. Deepwater Horizon: $5 million ($37 million)
9. Sully: $3 million ($96 million) 
10. Masterminds: $2 million ($16 million) 

 

[Weekend #s STB 59.6M, Pets 29.3M, GB and LO 21.6M, IA5 21M]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

200m is a no go this year. 300m or death

Star Trek Beyond, Jason Bourne and Magnificent Seven could all inch across $200 million DOM.  Suicide Squad could 'only' do $250-280 million DOM (still great for a quirky supervillain tentpole with minimal kid/family appeal). Doctor Strange could do Thor 2 numbers with a $70-75 million OW and decent WOM. Fantastic Beasts will probably end up in the $200-299 million DOM range. Moana could disappoint and 'only' do $200-250 million DOM. Sing and Passengers remind me heavily of Alvin 1/I Am Legend. I could see both of those and Rogue One all doing $200 million+ DOM since all three have broad appeal and target different demos. 

 

Personally, I see the top 20 looking like:

1. Finding Dory
2. Rogue One
3. Captain America - Civil War
4. Moana
5. Suicide Squad
6. Deadpool
7. The Jungle Book
8. The Secret Life of Pets
9. Zootopia
10. Batman vs. Superman - Dawn of Justice
11. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
12. Passengers
13. Sing
14. Doctor Strange
15. The Magnificent Seven
16. Star Trek Beyond
17. Storks
18. Jason Bourne 
19. X-Men: Apocalypse 
20. Kung Fu Panda 3 

Of those, I think 1-14 will do $200 million+ DOM (even if Passengers, Sing and Doctor Strange only inch across the mark). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Weekend #s STB 59.6M, Pets 29.3M, GB and LO 21.6M, IA5 21M]

9 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

My week by week SS breakdown:

 

Aug 5: 150M (54M weekdays, 204M Total)

Aug 12: 60M (24M weekdays, 288M Total)

Aug 19: 30M (12M weekdays, 330M Total)

Aug 26: 17M (7.5M weekdays, 354.5M Total)

Sep 2: 10M (6M weekdays, 371.5M Total)

Sep 9: 5M (2.7M weekdays, 379.2M Total)

Sep 16: 2.5M (1.4M weekdays, 383.1M Total)

Sep 23: 1.2M (700k weekdays, 385M Total)

 

Final Total: 390M (2.6x)

 

It should stay on top until Labor Day when Morgan dethrones it (or maybe it doesn't?)

I actually think Kubo will do it. A low 20s OW, a 30% 2nd weekend drop and a 5% 3-day Labor Day increase would be enough to put SS into 2nd or 3rd place. Good WOM could make it possible. 

 

Morgan will be lucky to make 5th place  I think Kubo, SS, Lights, Pete, Bourne 5 and Florence will all finish ahead of it that weekend. 

[Weekend #s STB 59.6M, Pets 29.3M, GB and LO 21.6M, IA5 21M]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lmao @ Ice Age, told you guys that was going sub 60 dom. Great #'s for Trek, Pets, Lights Out, and Dory. Neither bad nor good for GB.

Great call! I started feeling $70-80 million once Pets had a $100 million+ OW and buzz was non-existent. $50-55 million DOM is enough to make a small profit, but not enough to justify Ice Age 6. With how mediocre the Ice Age franchise is, it's hard to be sad about its demise or stalling. 

 

Star Trek with a $60 million OW and a $160-185 million DOM total isn't too bad. 

 

Pets getting a $29 million 3rd weekend is solid: 

$22 million ($305 million)

$12.5 million ($330 million)

$6 million ($339 million) 

$3 million ($343 million)

$2 million ($345 million) 

$2.5 million/$3.25 million ($349 million) 

$354-357 million DOM 

 

Lights Out with a $20-21 million OW and $55-65 million DOM sounds about right. 

 

Dory holding nicely! $485-495 million DOM should happen. 

 

Ghostbusters holding about as well as anyone could expect. $130-140 million DOM should happen.

 

Tarzan holding well! $130-133 million DOM is a lot better than most on here expected. 

 

 

 

 

17 minutes ago, James said:

Good for Beyond. 60m still in play.

It just gets better and better for Lights Out. The midnight/OD ratio is the same as The Shallows. If it follows that movie for the rest of the weekend it will end up with 22-23m. But I think it can push for 24-25m and maybe 70-80m total. I am very interested to see if it beats Purge 3.

And even better than Deadline estimated for Tarzan. A 40% weekend drop is on order. It is headed for 130-140m.

And that number for Ice Age should guarantee 20m. Not impressive by any means, but is is an animation so it should get at least a 3x multi. 60-70m will happen methinks.

 

$18.5 million OW (from a $5.75 million actual Friday) 

$9 million ($35 million) 

$4.5 million ($44 million) 

$2 million ($47 million) 

$0.75 million ($48 million) 

$0.5 million ($49 mlilion) 

$1 million/$1.25 million ($50 million)

 

$53-55 million DOM would still be roughly a 3x, but Angry Birds, SpongeBob 2 and Home all missed a 3x over the last two years, so IA5 missing the mark wouldn't be unprecedented. 

 

[Weekend #s STB 59.6M, Pets 29.3M, GB and LO 21.6M, IA5 21M]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

If IA5 does 65m, amazingly it's drop off from the predecessor won't be the top 3 of the year.

 

1. ALICE 2 (334=>77) 334 = 77 x 4.34

2. MBFGW 2 (241=>60) 241 = 60 X 4.02

3. ID 2 (306=>104*) 306 = 104 X 2.94

4. NEIGHBOURS 2 (150=>55) 150 = 55 x 2.73

5. IA5 (161=>65) 161 = 65 x 2.48

6. TMNT 2 (191=>81) 191 = 81 x 2.36

 

*Have assumed 104 dom for ID2. Looking at inflation, it's a more epic drop than ALICE 2 but one can argue that an ID2 that had released 5 years after ID1 would have done much better.

 

Ignoring movies with a 10+ year gap,

1. ALICE 2 (334=>77) 334 = 77 x 4.34

2. NEIGHBOURS 2 (150=>55) 150 = 55 x 2.73

3. IA5 (161=>65) 161 = 65 x 2.48

4. TMNT 2 (191=>81) 191 = 81 x 2.36

 

 

Which is kinda why I expected IA5 to do $60-80 million after minimal buzz, OS underperformance and the breakout of Pets/Dory. 

 

The underperformance of multiple sequels this summer doesn't help matters. Would love to see Pete's Dragon and Kubo both finish above IA5 DOM. If BFG had, too, that would have been quite a story 

3 hours ago, miketheavenger said:

Both Star Trek and Bourne next weekend should be fairly backloaded since they're targeting older audiences. So I don't think a potentially lower OW for them should be cause for Panic. That being said, Trek will probably meet expectations anyway.

 

 

Bourne 5, yes. Trek 3 - so-so IMO. 

 

Bourne 5 will drop 55% against Suicide Squad, but will benefit from Ben-Hur being the only other major film for its demo until September 23rd. I could see a 3.5x-4x even from a $55-65 million OW. 

 

Trek 3 would, but Bourne 5 and Suicide Squad back-to-back pretty much guarantees back-to-back 50-55% weekend drops. Even with strong late legs, that would only get it to 2.8x-3x IMO. 

 

Both will succeed and hopefully end up in the $150-250 million range. We need more mid-level blockbusters instead of just $330 million+ gargantuans. 

[Wednesday numbers Pets 6.3, GB 4.25, FTF 1.6 The V 1.37]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You can't fault Fox for making this one, though. Did you even see what Ice Age 3 and 4 made ww? It's nothing at all like those other examples, where they only had one successful movie before.

 

 

I know this, but the franchise is clearly tired and Dory/Pets will combine for $800 million DOM when all is said and done. Possibly $850 million DOM if Pets and Dory develop extraordinary late legs. 

 

Star Trek 3 and GB have a little family appeal. Pete's Dragon/Nine Lives/Kubo all take away its already meager family audience, too. 

 

It'll make enough not to bomb ($60-80 million DOM and $200-250 million OS would still result in a tiny profit or breaking even before Netflix/cable), but I think they'll stick to Scrat shorts and DTV sequels after this one. 

[Wednesday numbers Pets 6.3, GB 4.25, FTF 1.6 The V 1.37]

July 2016 has returned to the typical summer format that May/June skipped out on. Jason Bourne, Bad Moms and Suicide Squad should all be solid hits, too. 

 

This next weekend is looking solid 

1. Star Trek Beyond: $63 million 
2. The Secret Life of Pets: $26.5 million ($257 million)
3. Lights Out: $22 million
4. Ghostbusters: $19 million ($84 million) 
5. Ice Age - Collision Course: $17 million 
6. The Legend of Tarzan: $6.5 million ($116 million) 
7. Finding Dory: $6 million ($459 million)
8. Hillary's America: $5 million 
9. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million 
10. Central Intelligence: $3.5 million ($124 million) 

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

It's actually not that hot around the world.

 

If it really only makes $20m on its opening weekend, it's over for good.

 

With other unwanted sequels plummeting this summer (Neighbors 2, NYSM2, Alice 2, TMNT2, IDR), I wouldn't be shocked if IA5 only does $60-70 million DOM. Pets and Dory will combine for $750-800 million DOM and BFG adds another $50-55 million. And Pete's Dragon/Kubo will hurt it, too. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party | July 22, 2016 | Dinesh D'Souza documentary]

I'm surprised it wasn't even included in the top 10 predict since Purge 3 will likely drop to $2.5 million-$3 million.

 

I would think $4-5 million OW is doable with 1,200 theaters. 

[Tuesday#s Pets 9.2 GB 6.2 FTF 2.3 The V 1.9]

3 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

Btw @mahnamahnacalled 8.8m Tuesday for Pets yesterday! Spot on as usual.

Thanks! I'm getting more and more accurate as I go. There's definitely more of a process/formula to numbers than one might think. 

 

Still think it's on pace for $26 million this next weekend. I'd say $28-29 million based on its weekdays, but Ice Age 5 will leave enough of a dent to put it in the $24-26 million range IMO. $330-345 million should happen unless it drops worse than I expect against Bourne 5/Bad Moms and SS 

[Monday numbers | Pets 6.8 Ghostbusters: 4.9]

1 hour ago, MinaTakla said:

The good pets hold is week on week guys, not the Monday hold. That's what the earlier talk in the thread about.

Week on week it's 42-43% so that's a good hold. 

 

 

It's too bad Ice Age 5 comes out this weekend. It won't be able to drop 38-40% if IA5 does $20-25 million OW. 

 

$26 million ($257 million)

$18 million ($283 million)

$11 million ($305 million)

$5.5 million ($313 million) 

$3 million ($317 million) 

$2.5 million ($320 million) 

$3.25 million/$4.5 million ($325 million) 

 

 

$330-335 million DOM 

 

Not a bad run.