mahnamahna
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Posts posted by mahnamahna
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3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Where I expect Dory to land:
Jul 8: 19.2M (12.3M weekdays, 433.7M Total)
Jul 15: 11.5M (6.9M weekdays, 452.1M Total)
Jul 22: 5.8M (3.4M weekdays, 461.3M Total)
Jul 29: 3.8M (2.2M weekdays, 467.3M Total)
Aug 5: 1.9M (1M weekdays, 470.2M Total)
Aug 12: 1.3M (700k weekdays, 472.2M Total)
Final Total: 477M (3.53x)
It's going to need great drops (sub-40) from here on out for 500M.
Why would it drop that hard against a $30 million opener? I don't see GB being real competition
I could easily see it rebounding with a 15-20% drop next week to offset the 50-55% drop this week.
Also, why such a harsh drop against Suicide Squad? That has almost zero kid appeal.
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1 hour ago, Nova said:
I think SLOP will clear $100M. I think that multiplier on MandD is too high if it's true Friday was $4.5M.
Dory was bound to take a hit at some point in time. It's still a fantastic run and will sure get to $500M
tarzan with a good hold. I can see it getting to $125M.
Purge with its expected drop but with a $10M budget at this point who cares haha
CI is just killing it. It's holds have been ridiculous. Unbelievable.
IDR....I guess it could be worse. It's looking like it'll clear $100M so good for it lol
The BFG
The Shallows with a good hold. Looking at $55M+ now and a 3.3x
How is Central Intelligence holding amazing? I don't get this logic.
2 hours ago, Chaz said:In less than 48 hours we went from discussing Dory passing TDK to missing $500 million completely. The box office is as unpredictable as me on MDNA at Wal-Mart.
That's more of the reactionary style of people on here than actual fact IMO.
$15 million ($452 million) - no competition
$9.5 million ($472 million)
$7.5 million ($487 million)
$5 million ($496 million)
$3.5 million ($501 million)
$2 million ($503 million)
$1.5 million ($505 million)
$2.5 million/$3.25 million ($509 million)
4 hours ago, James said:Pets will do 100m. Dory needs to have good holds from now on to touch 500m. Good hold for Tarzan. Thinking it could hit 19m. Amazing for Central Intelligence. And looool at that BFG drop. Where is it's amazing WOM?
Dory should hold well just about every week for the rest of the summer except Kubo. I think IA5 will underperform big time due to a possible $350 million+ DOM for Pets.
Disney will find a way for $500-505 million DOM. A 15-20% drop next week would help matters.. Ghostbusters doing only $30-35 million OW would help.
Central Intelligence isn't doing amazing. It's holding how just about every well-liked studio comedy of the last 5 years has held. Its not like it's a Hangover 1 multi.
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1 hour ago, HeyItsMoses said:
What about Sing? I mean, people were expecting $80m for SLOP, but it's exceeding expectations by over $20m.
By having, "From the studio that brought you Despicable Me, Minions, and SLOP", I can easily see Sing earning over $300m as well.
Unlike Pets, Sing hasn't had that good of a marketing campaign.
$175-225 million would be a solid range for it.
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27 minutes ago, Telemachos said:
I'm going to save Tele Jr's mind and stick him in front of some Ghibli movies instead.
Cant blame one for choosing Totoro, Kiki, Ponyo and Arriety over the Pets movie.
Really any Ghibli movie
26 minutes ago, CJohn said:Poor, poor child.
What's wrong with Studio Ghibli?
My Neighbor Totoro and Kiki's Delivery Service are whimsical fun, Spirited Away an excellent coming-of-age story, Grave of the Fireflies and Princess Mononoke are both mature animated films for teens/adults.
I don't see what's so bad about them.
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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Well, you may be dead on on Pets and I doubt anyone else was that high. I know my 320 prediction for it was pretty up there.
I think plenty expected $290-320 million DOM, but almost no one thought Pets would do more than DM2.
Guess the blue-sky trackless dark ride based on the movie is getting greenlit and fasttracked.
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1 minute ago, Nova said:
Really? Cause I think it has plenty of competition. Just because it's rated R doesn't mean its target audience will flock to see it when there are other options out there for them.
Other than Sausage Party, there's no male-skewing comedies for the rest of the summer (War Dogs is listed as a dramedy).
I don't think it'll get super legs, but a 2.5x-2.8x isnt crazy for a modestly-received xomedy.
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1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:
Wow. What an opening for Pets. It's bothering me how much its success is bothers me though. I get the marketing was appealing to the GA, but it honestly never excited me.
It also helps that it's not a sequel in a summer of a seemingly endless array of sequels GAs didn't really want (Neighbors 2, X:A, Alice 2, TMNT 2, NYSM2, IDR)
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5 minutes ago, Nova said:
It's budget is $33M. I don't consider that low budget. The Purge's budget is low. Either way if it does $13M it's going to need a 2.5x to get its budget back. And considering the fact it did $1.6M in previews and it's Friday is $5-6M tells me it's front loaded so who knows if it'll reach that 2.5x
Since it's rated R, West Coast numbers might boost it to $6.5-7.5 million.
It doesn't have a ton of competition so a 2.5x-2.8x shouldn't be that hard to achieve with summer weekdays.
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5 minutes ago, Baumer said:
Mike and Dave won't come close to 19 mill for the weekend if it does 6 mill.
Oh, I thought that was the Dory number.
Yeah, Mike & Dave will probably do $12-16 million OW. Not that bad given how low the budget is.
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1 minute ago, cannastop said:
Actually, it kind of does.
IO is a heavier film with a more complex premise to market. It also opened after a $200 million+ opener.
Because of this, I'd say both are about equal.
Ghostbusters will probably underperform now... $30-35 million OW wouldn't surprise me.
6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:Omg, the meltdowns if it beats Frozen DOM will be EPIC.
I don't know... if it gets a $115-125 million OW, I'd hope it can do $440-470 million DOM.
If Moana does $350 million+ DOM and Sing does $200 million+ DOM, that would be possibly the biggest year for animation in general.
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With a $115 million OW, I'd give Pets a 3.5x. That'd take it to $402 million DOM.
With $125 million OW, it could do $375 million-$450 million DOM.
Pets and Dory both surpassing Shrek 2 DOM would be the biggest story of Summer 2016.
28 minutes ago, Rth said:about 6-7
So a $19-25 million range for the weekend.
Not bad considering Pets just might do $120 million + OW.
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$85-115 million OW on the way
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Pets - $82 million
Mike & Dave - $8 million
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35 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
The Purge is going to need some big legs to hit 75M
If it gets $11-12 million this weekend, that's $57-58 million.
$6 million ($70 million)
$2 million ($74 million)
$1 million ($76 million)
Average to slightly above average legs get it to $75-80 million.
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- Zootopia
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- The Red Turtle
- Finding Dory
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12 minutes ago, James said:
Despicable Me 1 and 2 had pretty much the same legs as Zootopia. DM1 got 81% on RT. DM2 got 73%. Pets is at 79%. So I really don't see your point.
Despicable Me 1 benefited from a smaller OW, stellar WOM (from GAs, not critics) and less kiddie competition. Plus, the Minions felt fresh 6 years ago.
DM1:
TS3 ($76 million)+Airbender ($31 million)+Sorcerer's ($63 million)+Ramona ($26 million)+C&D2 ($43 million)+Nanny McPhee 2 ($29 million)=$268 million DOM
Pets:
Dory ($100 million)+BFG ($35 million)+Ice Age 5 ($115 million)+Nine Lives ($30 million)+Pete's Dragon ($100 million)+Kubo ($80 million)=$465 million DOM
Even with inflation included, that's still $130-160 million more than DM1's competition back in 2010.
Despicable Me 2's multi is skewed because of the 5-day opening. It would have opened to around Minions' OW ($105-115 million) if it didn't open on a Wednesday and ended up with a 3.1x-3.4x.
Pets would be doing well to get a 3.2x-3.5x IMO.
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5 minutes ago, a2knet said:
DORY's animation record seems like it will stand for a long long time.
Which animation in the next few years can take it down?
Other than Frozen 2, I don't really think there's a sequel that could touch $500 million+ DOM. DORY is benefiting from being the solid follow-up to Pixar's most popular and beloved film.
1 minute ago, Jonwo said:The reviews aren't strong enough for a Zoo type multi. I'll say it'll have a slightly higher multi than the Lorax. It'll do well but I don't see it crossing $300m.
$75 million OW on its way to $250-280 million DOM sounds about where it should end up. July 2016 could end up being pretty solid aside from BFG doing sub-$100 million.
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13 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:
Will this ultimately hurt FD getting to $500m USdom??
No
It'll hold nicely next weekend against Ghostbusters (20-30% drop wouldn't surprise me) and after IA5, it'll have solid holds pretty much until Labor Day (Aug 19-21 being the exception).
8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:I don't think it'll hurt Dory all that much. Families will ultimately see Dory if Secret Life Of Pets is overcrowded or sold out. I'm thinking that Dory has a similar drop to that of Inside Out when Minions exploded onto the scene.
It helps that both target slightly different demographics.
Dory focuses more on teens/adults nostalgic about the original, while Pets is strictly targeting the new generation of kids. Similar to TS3/DM1 and IO/Minions, they both should be able to coexist and do $300 million+ DOM.
35-45% 4th weekend drop for Dory and a $75-90 million OW for Pets is certainly doable (happened for IO despite a $115 million OW for Minions).
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13 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
Yeah, I think 540 or so looks like what it would be headed for. We will see how Pets hits it though.
From a $25 million 4th weekend ($427 million 24-day total)
$18.5 million 5th weekend (-28% drop) - $464 million 31-day total
$10 million 6th weekend (-46% drop) - $485 million 38-day total
$7.5 million 7th weekend (-25% drop) - $500 million 45-day total
$5 million 8th weekend (-33% drop) - $510 million 52-day total
$3.5 million 9th weekend (-40% drop) - $516 million 59-day total
$2 million 10th weekend (-42% drop) - $519 million 66-day total
$1.5 million 11th weekend (-25% drop) - $521 million 73-day total
$2.75 million/$3.5 million 12th weekend (+80-ish%/+130-ish% increase) - $526 million 80-day total
$530-535 million DOM
$540 million+ could happen with a $26-28 million 4th weekend and a sub-40% drop against Ice Age 5. But otherwise, just around TDK seems likely.
3 hours ago, a2knet said:BO is predicting -35% for 12.2m for BFG and 43m cume after the 2nd weekend.
Holds like those in face of competition and summer weekdays would put it on track for 70m.
Now 70m is still half of it's 140m budget but at least it's not the ~56m (3x multiplier from 18.8m) that we feared
"Alice2 and BFG combined doing under 150m dom" club would have been something.
It has zero competition next weekend (a PG-13 sci-fi comedy and a small-scale thriller), so it could have a 15-25% drop. That would put it on track for $75 million+ DOM since summer weekdays can allow for 45-50% drops week-to-week and still turn into a solid run (if there are some decent holds interspersed).
Double features with Pete's Dragon could get it to $80 million+ DOM by Labor Day.
$80-90 million DOM and $250-350 million WW would be enough for it to eventually turn a small profit.
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Since Zootopia is probably the best of the WDAS resurgence thus far (its screenplay being one of its strongest aspects), I can definitely see the Academy giving it an Original Screenplay nomination alongside Best Song and Best Animated Feature. Unlike Tangled/Wreck-it Ralph/Frozen/Big Hero 6, it has some strong sociopolitical commentary and a great use of sarcasm/irony throughout. It's closer to classic Pixar than a typical animated film.
It doesn't have a chance at a BP nomination, but Original Screenplay is definitely doable if Disney campaigns for it.
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2 hours ago, CJohn said:
The end of Dory begins Friday.
$25-28 million 4th weekend confirmed
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21 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
Great weekend for Dory, Purge, CI, & The Shallows. Nice to see the breadth in the outperformers.
It'd also be for Tarzan if the budget were $90-100 million instead of $180 million.
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1 hour ago, Chaz said:
Damn, you see a bigger multi than Zootopia with a bigger opening?
Zootopia had a 4.55x.
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Dory, IDR, Tarzan, Purge 3 and Central Intelligence all had solid bumps from actuals to estimates.
Weekend Estimates (Page 92): Pets 103.2M (biggest OW ever for an original movie) | Tarzan 20.6M | Dory 20.3M | M&D 16.6M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Hopefully the Nintendo additions shift that perspective a little. Mario, Zelda and Pokémon done right could be almost as much of a draw as WWOHP. All three combined could even surpass Potter's merch/food/beverage sales.
I think people are drawn by Harry Potter, but notice Universal has had higher quality additions for quite some time now. Once they realize there's much more to do, they're hooked IMO.
A water park, 2-4 more hotels, a second entertainment complex, a monorail and a fully-realized third theme park (not like the half-baked Hollywood Studios), plus more affordable pricing and convenience than Disney should help the Orlando resort continue to thrive.