mahnamahna
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Posts posted by mahnamahna
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6 minutes ago, Planodisney said:
I would look at Dorys hold this weekend, not its Thursday to Friday increase. It's weekdays were so much higher than any other animated movie ever, and yet it's still looking at a 45% weekend over weekend drop. That's very good.
TS3 had a 41% 2nd weekend drop
but its weekdays were much lower than Dory and Minions coming off of a 115 million opening weekend had a 53% drop.
So, with a record 135 million opening weekend, and record first weekday numbers, a 45% 2nd weekend drop is actually strong.
TS3 actually dropped 46% in its 2nd weekend. Dory is having stronger weekdays and a slightly stronger 2nd-weekend hold.
It should have a better 3rd weekend hold, too, because TS3 had Last Airbender, Eclipse, Grown Ups and Karate Kid all doing well, while BFG and ID42 are the only two films this July 4th that'll do $25 million+ over the 4-day. While TS3 dropped about 50% over the 3-day, Dory might only drop 25-30% over the 3-day in the face of weak holiday competition.
And if you want to subtract previews, Dory is only dropping about 40% from last Fri-Sun. It's an excellent 2nd-weekend hold - better than IO, TS3, MU and Brave - all Pixar films with smaller OWs. On pace for $450 million+ DOM.
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14 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said:
This is a brutal summer, with Civil War and Dory growing out of this field of dirt.
July 2016 is looking much brighter.
Pets should do $225 million+ DOM
Ghostbusters should do $125 million+ DOM (unless there's toxic WOM)
Star Trek 3 should do $150 million+ DOM
Ice Age 5 should do $100 million+ DOM
Bourne 5 should do $150 million+ DOM (upside of $230-250 million DOM if it really clicks with older audiences)
Bad Moms should be a decent enough sleeper hit with zero competition until Bridget Jones 3 for its demo
Purge 3, Lights Out and Mike & Dave should all turn a profit when all is said and done
Infiltrator and Nerve are too small-scale to expect much more than $10 million DOM to begin with.
BFG should be kept afloat by OS #s (enough to break even)
Unlike Neighbors 2/Alice 2/NYSM 2/TMNT 2/ID4 2/Warcraft, I don't get a vibe of utter disinterest.
Tarzan is the only outright disaster for July IMO - and it was bound to happen with just how crowded Summer 2016 is.
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2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
Ok, a few people did. Grand scheme of things? Almost nobody.
Jesus, you are all so picky
It's not far off, yeah, but under 400M for a film featuring that many well recognized characters to the point it was a glorified Avengers movie in all but name? That was a little too pessimistic. Although mostly everybody else (myself included at a point) was overly optimistic as well, so it balances out I guess.
I was just saying some accurately predicted Zootopia and Jungle Book (or even slightly overpredicted), whereas no one came within $100 million DOM of predicting Deadpool's $350 million+ run (highest I saw was $235-240 million DOM).
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33 minutes ago, zackzack said:
NYSM2, Turtles, Conjuring 2, Warcraft - all wasted efforts.
All these could have hit $100M with a little bit better writing, casting,
and marketing. Such a waste of studio resources.
At least Warcraft is killing it in China.
Conjuring 2 isn't a wasted effort.
Horror sequels usually decline and Annabelle took off some demand.
It'll end up with $95-100 million DOM on a $40 million budget. Not a huge hit, but a success nevertheless.
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2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:
The holiday next weekend can probably prevent a huge drop.
It's tracking low to mid 20's
That's great for a $10 million budgeted film.
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28 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
Civil War didn't surprise anybody, though. Everybody (except Tele and Baumer
) saw its big run coming, and many expected even better (at least a month before its release when the hype machine kicked in). Whereas nobody expected Deadpool, Zootopia or The Jungle Book to be as successful as they were. And while everybody saw Dory be big, a juggernaut this massive... not so much. Feels satisfying and refreshing.
Zootopia and Jungle Book had some who thought $300 million+ DOM
Deadpool is the only true surprise since it over performed the most bullish predicts by over $100 million (like JW and American Sniper)
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12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Hmm. I would think Dory would see a pretty big increase on Saturday. Like a 40%+ increase. But, yeah, $80M is out. Probably just under $70M.
That's not the actual #s for Dory. $70 million+ I'd happening
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2 minutes ago, trifle said:
I forgot Star Trek. I'm looking forward to that. But I'll see them both. I don't think the others will target the same audience. However, I'm not sure what IA5 is.
Id say ID42 will benefit from minimal tentpoles until July 22. Could get a 3x if its 4-day is strong enough
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6 minutes ago, trifle said:
Not every weekend, but until Bourne comes out, to me IDR seems 'all there really is' besides XA's waning legs. In the summer people want to go to the movies, and while they want the best out there, in my experience will settle for something that looks like decent fun. We'll see. I don't think IDR's opening weekend is going to be all that fantastic, but I am hoping its legs will be good.
Pets, Ghostbusters and Star Trek 3 should do better than everything else this summer that's not Civil War/XA/Dory.
Bad Moms and IA5 should be mid-level hits, too.
July 2016 looks far more well-rounded than any other month this summer.
14 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:Star Trek should be solid for 150M domestic and Ghostbuster is a possibility that could go either way.
I guess the sequel fatigue has me going way low for ST3. $160-180 million would be a decent result all things considered.
Ghostbusters needs fantastic WOM to counteract the negative buzz in order to reach $150 million+ DOM.
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24 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:
Is a $75m 4-day 4th of July holiday weekend possible for Dory?
With a $88-94 million 2nd weekend, it could happen.
9 minutes ago, IMojammer said:I think the 4-day weekend of the 4th will be down at most 15% from this weekend for Dory. So if this weekend is 80, next weekend for 4 days will be at least 68. But it could hold even. TMNT nearly held even for Labor Day weekend and Lego was down less than 10% for president's day weekend.
July 4th tends to be a deflated moviegoing day compared to
Labor Day or President's Day.
$60-65 million is a more conservative 4-day.
BFG and Tarzan will take away some screens and families. And that'd still mean a $50-53 million 3rd weekend.
$70-75 million 4-day would indicate $430-440 million after 17 days.
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7 minutes ago, La Binoche said:
July Fourth Box Office: Few Fireworks Expected as 'BFG,' 'Tarzan' Track Poorly
Independence Day 2 would end up with $135-165 million DOM with a $50 million OW - not that awful.
Purge 3 should make a tidy profit on a $10 million budget.
Tarzan and BFG will both bomb.
Pets, Bourne 5 and SS might be the only 3 remaining $150 million+ films this summer.
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How high will Dory go this weekend?
$80 million?
$85 million?
$90 million+?? (With a $26.5 million Friday, it could happen)
ID42 seems like a more casual blockbuster akin to San Andreas so $4 million in previews could still transfer to a $40 million+ OW. Disappointing, but OS should help it make a profit
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3 hours ago, narniadis said:
Fantastic hold....
I don't know what deadline is smoking with their -55% and 60m weekend prediction because even drops and holds like Ts3 which was quite muted on weekends gets you over 77m
I was confused, too.
When was the last time any non-holidaysummer tentpole did $17 million more on weekdays than the weekend?
$70 million is the floor, $94-97 million the ceiling
3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:And Deadline thinks it's going to drop 55% and have a weekend in the 60s?
Even if it had a 0% increase on Friday it would be in the mid 50s.
Agreed
$26 million (+49%)
$35 million (+35%)
$27 million (-25%)
$88 million (-35%) - $301 million 10-day
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9 minutes ago, NCsoft said:
If Wonder Woman does over $350M+, that's certainly a welcome surprise and definitely a break out.
In the midst of relatively uninspiring releases such as Pirates 5, Cars 3, Despicable me 3, and Transformers 5, it would be exciting to see such surprises next summer!
Wonder Woman, Spider-Man and Dunkirk could potentially surprise.
Not all $300 million+ DOM
(only Spidey and Wonder Woman have a shot at that IMO). But Dunkirk could be a breath of fresh air after another summer of sequels nobody asked for like Cars 3 or WWZ2 (GotG2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Kingsman 2, Apes 3 and Wonder Woman being the primary exceptions to this rule).
4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:Even if Guardians and Beauty and the Beast do $350M+, I think that's enough to finish in the Top 3 DOM. Even if Episode VIII doesn't reach $750M+, it will easily win DOM 2017.
For the top 15 DOM, I'd say:
- Star Wars Episode VIII: $725 million
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $430 million
- Beauty and the Beast: $380 million
- Spider-Man - Homecoming: $355 million
- Justice League: $310 million
- Despicable Me 3: $295 million
- Fast 8: $285 million
- The LEGO Batman Movie: $270 million
- Coco: $250 million
- Thor - Ragnorak: $235 million
- Wonder Woman: $225 million
- War of the Planet of the Apes: $215 million
- Dunkirk: $205 million
- Transformers - The Last Knight: $185 million
- Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $175 million
I see Spider-Man being a light-hearted crowd-pleaser ala GotG. LEGO Batman should benefit from minimal competition until March 17th and its status as the first big tentpole of 2017. Coco got a solid boost from Grinch leaving 2017 - could do $300 million+ DOM if it gets critical acclaim. Dunkirk could go anywhere IMO - could do $90 million, could do close to $290 million.
Transformers, POTC, F&F and DM should all decline from their predecessors. Apes 3, GotG2 and Thor 3 all have the potential to increase from their predecessor.
2017 should also be more well-rounded since I don't see Jan-Apr 2017 having 4 $300 million+ DOM grossers. That leaves room for some mid-range successes (50 Shades 2, Dark Tower, Wolverine 3, Kong, Smurfs)
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30 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
Unbeliveble Run for Dory... Can Dory surpass Shrek 2?
With an $80-85 million 2nd weekend, I don't see how it wouldn't.
$440 million+ DOM is very likely if it holds well this next weekend
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$18 million
$16.8 million ($212.5 million 7-day total)
$25 million (47.5% increase)
$34.5 million (38% increase)
$26 million (25% decrease)
$85.5 million 2nd weekend ($298 million 10-day total)
Would be cool to see $17.5 million Thurs and $90 million 2nd weekend for a $300 million+ 10-day.
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4 minutes ago, peludo said:
That would be a very good number.
Just thinking that with Dory there will be 6 films over $300m in 6 months, one per month...
Pets, Suicide Squad, Moana and Rogue One could make it 10 for the whole year!
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Just now, cannastop said:
Thanks for the breakdown. My only point is that it's far too early to say exactly how it's going to play out for Finding Dory.
Yeah, this next weekend could go anywhere from $70-90 million.
It depends on where it's at by June 30th and its holding power against BFG/Pets
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1 hour ago, cannastop said:
A 10 day total of $293 does not guarantee a final total of $500m+. You're just assuming that it will have the same holds as The Dark Knight.
$48 million/$60 million ($401 million)
$22 million ($433 million)
$14.5 million ($461 million)
$6.5 million ($474 million)
$5 million ($483 million)
$4 million ($490 million)
$2.5 million ($494 million)
$1.5 million ($496 million)
$1 million ($497 million)
$2.25 million/$3 million ($500 million)
$500-510 million DOM isn't too crazy, especially with an $80 million+ 2nd weekend and an inevitable $55 million+ 4-day weekend after.
$470-480 million is my current guess, but its next two weekends will better determine its legs
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5 hours ago, The Pandaren said:
That's a fantastic Tuesday. Could Dory have under a 40% drop this weekend?
$17 million (27% drop)
$16.5 million (3% drop)
$24.5 million (47% increase)
$33 million (35% increase)
$25 million (25% drop)
$82.5 million 2nd weekend (38.5% 2nd weekend drop)
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5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
Zootopia's DOM run is more impressive than Frozen's just for the record. Released in the heart of the school year, no holiday or summer legs to help it. A massive blockbuster direct competitor just a month later with The Jungle Book (something Frozen never had in its whole run). No merchandise frenzy or big soundtrack to elevate its popularity. No throngs of obsessed little girls seeing it over and over. Released in an increasingly harsher climate for legs and longevity. Nothing on its side but straight up immaculate WOM taking it to 85%+ of Frozen's total, despite all the disadvantages it had in comparison. Incredible.
^this
Frozen would have stalled around $275-325 million DOM without the Christmas/New Year's boost near the middle of its run. Its nearly 6x would probably have been a 4x-4.5x without the holiday boost.
Zootopia got a 4.5x-4.6x all by itself, pretty much. Both are extremely impressive, but Zootopia showed some old-fashioned legs during the typically slow season.
2 hours ago, stripe said:24M for Dory would be amazing for this Tuesday
From then:
18M / 16M / 22M / 30M / 23M
10 day cume: 269M
2nd weekend: 75M (-45%)
Other animated films after 10 days
Minions 215M
Shrek3 203M
TS3 226M
Shrek2 (12 days) 236M
IO 185M
1I think your weekend is too small for $77.5 million in dailies.
$77-82 million is my guess for the weekend.
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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:
Estimations for the rest of Dory and CI's runs:
Dory:
Remainder of the week: 75M (205.1M total)
Jun 24: 70M (40M weekdays, 315.1M total)
Jul 1: 40M (24M weekdays, 379.1M total)Jul 8: 18M (12M weekdays, 409.1M total)
Jul 15: 10M (7M weekdays, 426.1M total)
Jul 22: 5M (3.5M weekdays, 434.6M total)
Jul 29: 3.5M (2M weekdays, 440.1M total)
Aug 5: 2M (1.2M weekdays, 443.3M total)
Aug 12: 1.4M (800k weekdays, 445.5M total)
Final Total: 450M (3.33x)
The lack of appealing family options inbetween Pete's Dragon and Storks should push Dory to 450M (Wild Life isn't doing more than Norm). The ogrelord will still reign supreme.
CI:
Remainder of the week: 8M (43.5M total)
Jun 24: 17.5M (4M weekdays, 65M total)
Jul 1: 8.7M (2.3M weekdays, 76M total)
Jul 8: 4.2M (1.2M weekdays, 81.4M total)
Jul 15: 2M (700k weekdays, 84.1M total)
Final Total: 87M (2.45x)
Nothing so far that indicates this will have amazing legs.
2But also nothing so far indicates Central Intelligence will have a CBM/Fast and Furious-esque multipler
it actually increased from estimates by $1 million. It has minimal competition until July 15th, so it should be able to get a 3.1x-3.3x. Most well-received comedies get at least a 3x. I could see a 2.7x-2.9x, but sub-2.5x is a bit much.
Dory
$78 million ($291 million)
$42 million/$54 million ($387 million)
$20 million ($416 million)
$12 million ($439 million)
$6 million ($451 million)
$4 million ($459 million)
$3 million ($464 million)
$2 million ($467 million)
$475 million DOM (3.49x)
CI
$19 million ($70 million)
$11.5 million/$13.5 million ($95 million)
$5.5 million ($104 million)
$2.5 million ($109 million)
$116 million DOM (3.25x)
I wouldn't consider any multi for a $35 million OW under 3.5x amazing, either.
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4 hours ago, pieman said:
It's sad that the only movies that have been able to cross $100M this year have been comic book movies or animated movies. It tells you a lot about the state of the film industry.
Central Intelligence, ID42, Bourne 5, Ghostbusters, Star Trek 3, Pete's Dragon could all do it.
Conjuring 2 and Bad Moms have an outside chance.
2 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:So... What kind of second weekend for Dory? I'm thinking about $75M+. But, that might be a bit too high though.
From a $13 million Thursday
$25 million Friday
$33 million Saturday
$24 million Sunday
$82 million 2nd weekend.
$70 million+ second weekend should happen if Tuesday increases or stays relatively flat and Wed/Thurs combine for $25-30 million.
$80 million+ weekend might be too bullish, but no family competition should help out a little bit.
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8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
With a buttload of sequels that should have hit 100m this summer already missing the mark, the record might not go down this year after all. Looking back through the thread almost all of us had Alice 2, TMNT 2, and ID:R as locks or near locks for 100, which I guess really goes to show movies are seldom "locked" for a certain amount.
The Conjuring 2 and Central Intelligence both need to pass the mark. Independence Day 2 crossing the mark would help out.
12 for January-June 2016 would make it 24 for the remaining 6 months.
The Secret Lives of Pets
Ghostbusters
Star Trek Beyond
Ice Age - Continental Drift
Jason Bourne
Bad Moms
Suicide Squad
Pete's Dragon
Sully
The Magnificent Seven
Storks
The Girl on the Train
The Birth of a Nation
Doctor Strange
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Moana
La La Land
Office Christmas Party
Rogue One
Passengers
Sing
Silence
That would be 35... it also has 2-5 films becoming surprise hits. Hopefully, there's at least 30 $100 million+ grossers this year.
) saw its big run coming, and many expected even better (at least a month before its release when the hype machine kicked in). Whereas nobody expected Deadpool, Zootopia or The Jungle Book to be as successful as they were. And while everybody saw Dory be big, a juggernaut this massive... not so much. Feels satisfying and refreshing.
Weekend Actuals (Page 96): Dory 73M | IDR 41M | CI 18.2M | Shallows 16.8M | Conjuring 7.7M | Jones 7.6M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
It would be a sub-40% 2nd-weekend drop minus previews.
Less competition this July 4th (Eclipse/Grown Ups/Last Airbender/Knight and Day>>>>ID42/BFG/Purge 3/Tarzan/Shallows/Free State) should allow it to have a better 3rd-weekend hold than TS3, too.
$51-53 million (a drop in the low-mid 30s) for the 3-day should happen since BFG is far weaker than Last Airbender/Eclipse (both combined for well over $100 million+ over the 4-day). A $65 million+ 4-day is looking more and more likely
$1.5 million
$5.4 million
$7.3 million (+35%)
$5.6 million (-25%)
$19.8 million OW