langer
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Posts posted by langer
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I have a feeling that Peanuts is an American centric franchise just like Tintin is a European centric franchise.
Anyone else thinks the DOM ratio is gonna be higher than 50%?
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I'm looking forward to this sequel. I'm probably one of the 13 persons that like the first one.
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With animation, you can do pretty much what you want because characters don't age. They could have an interquel between any of the DM movies with the Minions doing minions thing without messing up with the overall storyline. I mean it could be a story about the minions chasing a tumbleweed for 2 hours and people would flock to the theaters...This is not a slight on the minions, it means they are just that popular.
As for predictions on future movies, people need to remember that animation movies don't behave like live action movies. There's a "ceiling" at the moment which stands around 400-450M. Adjusting Shrek 2 or Finding Nemo to today's dollar also doesn't work. Animation movies in 2003 and 2004 were not as common as today. There is a lot more competition these days where you can get at least 6 big production animation movies and 6 mid size movies during the off season while you would get 3 big production movies and 3-5 mid size or classic animation movies in 2003-2004.
I'm not saying no animation movies will hit 500M, just that current animation movies blockbusters peak at 350-425M in the last 4-5 years. If Frozen follows the pattern of DM-DM2, it could rise as much as 40% up to 550M. The HV sales certainly points to an increase which proved right for DM2 and Shrek 2, but proved wrong for Cars 2 and mostly Happy Feet 2.
I don't see either DM3 or Frozen 2 dropping below 300M, but I on the flip side, while Frozen 2 could rise as high as 550M, DM3 probably won't break 400M.
I won't comment in WW BO as there's way too many variables to properly predict something.
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FF7 sales...
DVD this week: -66%
Blu-ray this week: -76%
Honestly if we'd move 4-5 weeks forward then Furious 7 will have just around 50M from DVD / blu and will be waiting for maybe some minor Xmas boost. And FF8. Laughable.
Yep looks like I overestimated the HV market of 2015. I thought 2014 (aside form Frozen) and first half of 2015 was bad because we didn't have any animated mega blockbuster in 2014 as well as any live action mega blockbuster, but seeing F&F and Pitch Perfect 2 underperforming really shows a pattern.
While I don't think F&F7 will be at 50M in 5-6 weeks (more like 60M), thanksgiving and Christmas should push it to 70-75M and then no more boost until FF8 comes out.
All our hope lies with JW, Minions and Inside Out for the rest of the year.
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Following up on my predictions since The Numbers updated their Blu Ray chart today.
Fast & Furious 7 : the old titles were never great on HV, but this one was bigger than the previous movies. Prediction : At least 115M$ in combined sales in its first year
Special prediction : Pitch Perfect 2 is gonna reach 100M$ in combined sales in its first year.
I have a bad feeling about F&F 7 HV sales. Its first week was lower than F&F6 which would put it on track to generate 70-75M$, much lower than my prediction. The main difference with F&F 6 is that this latest entry will be available during Black Friday, a boost here could skew the numbers upward, but getting to 100M will be a challenge.
We have the Blu Ray numbers of Pitch Perfect 2, but we don't have the DVD numbers yet. The Blu Ray first week sales are on par with what the original did, but the main difference is that the original had very good legs on DVD. The original was also promoted during the last two Black Fridays so I expect this one to receive a boost in late November. It's too soon to call it, but I still feel confident that this will reach 100M in its first year.
Next week we'll have the numbers for Age of Ultron, but it is a Friday release, so numbers won't compare to other entries faithfully.
The big sellers (Inside Out, Jurassic World, Minions) won't come out until late October and November.
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Saw it yesterday. Loved it!
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This is gonna score great OS.
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Thanks - it's not really user friendly like The-Numbers charts, but it gives us some insights to the 2000-2005 era.
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And even that is quite optimistic. From 2014 releases we have just five 100+ movies (and only three of them made it before the end of the year). Frozen obviously and then Hobbit II (102M), Lego (112M), Guardians (118M) and Catching Fire (116M). And that's from both DVD and blu.
And then compare it with what movies made from just DVD sales 10-13 years back: National Treasure (143M), Ray (119M), The Notebook (105M), Brother Bear (112M), American Wedding (104M), Lilo & Stitch (116M) etc.
2014 was a poor year at the BO especially from a HV point of view :
- No major animated movie (300M+ DOM)
- No major original or (first in a franchise) live action movie grossing more than 400M
Always remember that, on average, sequels decrease on HV and that animation movies score higher than live action.
My predictions basically match Jurassic World to the first Avengers, Inside Out to the average Pixar movie and Minions to the previous DM movies with a decrease to account for the sequel factor.
Edit: where do you get the DVD sales figure from 10-13 years ago? I'm curious and would love to see those charts.
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To be fair The Fast and The Furious made 132M from DVD sales in just first 7 months, that's almost 92% of its DOM total. Then FF4 made 54%, FF5 - 33%, FF6 - 54% and your 115M prediction for FF7 would mean a bit under 33% so sequels are quite consistent.
The market was very different when the original Fast & Furious movie was released 15 years ago, HV sales were a big revenue maker, not anymore, so I wouldn't use that as a comparison. The argument could be made that Paul Walker's death boosted F&F6 on HV and F&F 7 at the BO, but might not boost the HV of F&F 7. We'll just have to wait and see on this, but usually sequels generate less revenue than the previous movie in their series.
F&F movies are the only ones not following the trend of sequels generating less revenue on HV and can be explained by 2 reasons:
- F&F 4 increased from Tokyo Drift because the 3rd movie in the franchise was considered a spinoff at the time
- F&F 6 increased from Fast 5 because of Paul Walker's death
Lastly, there is not a strong correlation between total BO and HV revenues. Just look at Iron Man 3 and Frozen, both have similar BO gross but IM3 generated 85M in HV and Frozen generated 355M.
I still stand by my original prediction.
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From the 5 movies that earned more than 300M at the BO this year, F&F and Avengers will generate modest HV sales, while the two animated films and Jurassic World will rake significant $ in HV sales. These 3 movies could all earn more than 200M$ in combined HV sales. It's more than likely that JW wil get it, Minions will get around 150M and Inside Out will get 175M.
Don't expect Minions to reach the levels of DM1 and DM2, there's a very strong patterns in HV sales regarding sequels. With very few exceptions, the sequels usually don't outgross the original or the previous title. Exceptions : The Dark Knight, Skyfall, F&F 4, F&F 6, The Wolverine.
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That only says to me either 1) someone is bullshitting or 2) Universal hasn't had a solid mega hit in over 15 years.
So...maybe?
I think they meant only Blu Ray...maybe the article was BS also. In the end, there is nothing groundbreaking about F&F 7's first week on HV... It looks like it generated about 65% of what F&F 6 did on its first week. I don't know if this was a Friday release while most DVD/BLu Rays are released on Tuesdays, which could explain the softer first week.
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I love this franchise! I hope Untitled Illumination Project 2 is as good as Untitled Illumination Project 1! Although sequels usually have a tough time to live up to the originals, I'm sure this one will be loads better. Nice to see Matthew McConaughey returning for the sequel. Even though I feel like he did a somewhat unremarkable performance in the original (let's not kid ourselves...who remembers McConaughey in the first movie? certainly not me...) I'm glad the studio is giving him a chance to shine once again in the sequel.
Garth Jennings is also a very talented director, but he especially excels at writing with Untitled Illumination Project 1 being a masterpiece right down to the unusual title of the movie.
I'm still pumped about the next installment of Untitled Illumination Project franchise! I heard the sequel is getting lots of buzz online and the mystery surrounding the original helps keep the hype high.
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People complaining about a movie being TOO faithful to the novel. I think this might be a first!
Reminds me of Watchmen. The movie is 95% faithful to the novel (including the visual aspects) and people were still bitching about the remaining 5%.
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I think it broke Universal's best first week on HV (blu ray most likely), which was probably held by F&F 6 prior to that with either 35M$ or 1.7M units.
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It's a very interesting thread. even though some parts of it is mostly Impact bumping his thread with new late updates or predictions, this is always nice to keep an eye on these records.
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Fast & Furious 7 : the old titles were never great on HV, but this one was bigger than the previous movies. Prediction : At least 115M$ in combined sales in its first year
It's time to look back at one of my predictions.
Although the charts are not released yet, there was an article on IMDB mentioning that the last F&F movie generated about 55M$ in its first week, but that also includes digital sales. HV sales are usually frontloaded with about 40-55% of first year business crammed into the first week. A 50M$ (guessing 5M$ digital) opening would put it on track to end up about 10M under my prediction. Although you never know if F&F will be featured during black Friday specials, but this should not make a huge difference (roughly 5M$).
F&F should pass Fifty Shades of Grey as the biggest 2015 theatrical movie on HV during its 2nd week. Just a reminder that the last movie that reach 100M$ was GotG and the last movie to reach 200M and 300M was Frozen, while the last movie to reach 400M was Chronicles of Narnia back in 2006.
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Love these guys. Will definitely watch this.
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You don't really burn a lot of demand during on a December OW. Films can open big and still be leggy.
On average, 25% of the gross (4X multiplier) for films released between December 10th and December 20th is earned on OW. There's also a big difference between an original movie and a blockbuster sequel when you compare multipliers. Original movies usually get better multipliers than sequels because of the brand recognition and pre release hype of sequels (demand).
I've listed in another post the biggest December OW and their multipliers. Only three Friday OW achieved more than 4X+ multiplier:
Avatar : 9.9X - original movie, first 3D blockbuster
Narnia : 4.4X - original movie
Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7X multiplier - sequel, from a 40M$ OW (I still don't understand how this movie opened so low...)
Look, I understand that anything can happen, I'm just saying some predictions are out of sync with how box office works in general. SW has proven time and time again since 2002 that it's a frontloaded franchise with below average multipliers and an average multiplier in December is roughly 4X.
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I did not compare it. I just used AVATAR as an example that a 4, 5, 6, etc multiplier is possible to happen.
4X multiplier is probable, while 5X-6X is possible but very very unlikely. Just remember that SW is gonna burn a lot of demand on its OW, it is SW after all.
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First, comparing the STAR WARS brand to those movies is just wrong. Episodes I - III were also summer releases. I am not saying this will do a 10x multiplier. I'm not even saying a 4x multiplier is a lock. All I want to say is we should not be closing our minds to possibilities. This could open to 100 M and make 500 M total or open to 200 M and finish with 700 M. Anything can happen.
In this case, I predict 300M OW and 1.5B DOM...you know anything can happen.
To be honest, you compared SW to Avatar first...which is also very wrong.
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Well AVATAR almost got a 10x multiplier.
Avatar is the only exception and you can't get a 10X multiplier with a sequel (at least not anymore...). Original movies tend to have higher multipliers.
TPM : 6.7 multipliers from a Wed release
AotC : 3.9 multiplier from a Thurs release
RotS : 3.5 multiplier from a Thurs release
December release
Hobbit AUJ : 3.8 multiplier
I am Legend : 3.3 multiplier
Avatar : 9.9 multiplier
Hobbit DOS : 3.5 multiplier
LotR RotK : 5.2 multiplier (Wed release)
Narnia 1 : 4.4 multiplier
LotR TTT : 5.5 multiplier (Wed release)
Hobbit BotFA : 4.6 multiplier (Wed release)
King Kong : 4.4 multiplier ( Thursday release)
LotR FotR : 6.7 multiplier (Wed release)
Tron Legacy : 3.9 multiplier
Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7 multiplier
You can clearly see that aside from Avatar, none of the blockbusters released between December 10th and December 20th on Fridays achieved a 5+ multiplier...
I don't see SW getting a multiplier over 4...
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Here are my top 5 predictions for the rest of the year.
Opening Weekend, Domestic and Worldwide.
Ranked by Domestic Total
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
OW: 137m
DOM: 723m
WW: 1.95b
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
OW: 148m
DOM: 367m
WW: 845m
3. Spectre
OW: 79m
DOM: 296m
WW: 1.08m
4. The Good Dinosaur
OW: 67m
DOM: 239
WW: 722m
5. Hotel Transylvania 2
OW: 52m
DOM: 167m
WW: 572m
That 5,3 multiplier for SW seems a bit high. A good mid December multiplier is around 3,75-4,25...
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Fox was doing a promotion with Best Buy - buy (a discounted) DOFP (Theatrical or Rogue) and get a free $8 ticket voucher to FF4.
Nice to know that at least one good movie benefited from that promotion!
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How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Please remember that AoU was released on a Friday while most HV are released on Tuesday. So these figures are for a 3 day week total. Adjusted for a 7 day week, this would have probably made 10M$ DVD and 30M$ Blu ray at the least. Underwhelming, but not as much as -80% or -65%.