TLK
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Posts posted by TLK
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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
If Downtown Abbey spin off movie can get 30m opening, there is no doubt a well made Game of throne movie can trigger 100m right?
I am not so sure about that. Harry Potter was a bigger phenomena and even then only 3 of its movies crossed $100 million. Neither of the two prequels/spin-offs came close. None of the Hobbit movies did $100 million OW and , yes, I know a couple of them could've cleared $100 million if they were November openers.
Edited to add - A Game of Thrones film will have to be R-rated for sure and that will further reduce the chances of $100 million OW.
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Downton presales are huge and it will be frontloaded. Is there even a recent movie that we can compare it to ?
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I think Hustlers is a more serious movie than what the trailers showed. It is not the type of genre movie that JLo's fans expect from her so if people are going to watch it for comedy, action or romance they may be disappointed.
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43 minutes ago, Eric! said:
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting
Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 21 46 5,753 0.80% I don't have any comps for the time being (the only option I have is It 2, which...lol. The number's 1.6M btw). However, I do think this is a very mediocre start. Only a few theaters have actually sold anything, and three of them barely got into the double digits. Of course, it's more than a month away, so this is not a death sentence. But this should give some people pause.
There is no reason why Maleficent should have great pre-sales a month out. I still see it as a $45-50 million opener (Down 30% from the first one) once Disney marketing kicks in..
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Doctor Sleep (the book) is so different from The Shining that a lot of people are going to be disappointed and a 3X multiplier may not happen but I think it can open to $30 million if it is marketed correctly as its own thing.
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4 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
I’ve been thinking about the same as Good Boys, which had a 10.2x multiplier.
Yeah, I think $4 million previews will make $40 million very likely but I'm still going with a $30 million OW.
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13 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:
find the trailer confusing, if you never saw The Shining , you may be lost what this movie is
I was going to make the same point. Horror is a young-skewing genre and a lot of them are either not very familiar with The Shining or they don't care about it. I can understand why the first trailer had to showcase the link to The Shining but the second trailer should've been about the plot of this movie with no references to the Kubrick film. This is an interesting book on its own but the only memorable things in this trailer are the scenes from The Shining.
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I don't think Hustlers will go over $30 million . It is a R-rated stripper movie and they have a ceiling. It should have a good multiplier though. Both CA and T6 should open above that.
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5 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:
10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000 27% $210,000,000 17% Warner Bros.
Terminator is going to be a difficult one to predict. I'm in the $30-35 million OW range unless the reviews are great.
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36 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
With 1.3k likes and 200 comments it doesn't indicate that many people watched the trailer. Either 10,000 people watched it 1,500+ times each or
The Flourishing Business of Fake YouTube Views
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/11/technology/youtube-fake-view-sellers.html
I think they were using the trailers as online ads so you get a view but not likes or comments. A youtube trailer ad is much, much cheaper than a TV ad so it makes a lot of sense for smaller distributors.
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It:1 had almost 200 million trailer views in the first 24 hours. That's a crazy number for anything that is not a big Disney tentpole. You can argue that even its $700 million WW total was a bit "disappointing" compared to the initial hype.
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20th century fox trailers don't have a lot of views. Ford vs Ferrari has 5.5 million views. King's man has 6 million and so on. I don't think they promote their trailers like some other distributors do by running them as ads. That said I don't expect Ad Astra to come close to some other big SciFi movies. $20-25 million is a decent OW target if the reviews are good.
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The trailer on JLo's Instagram has 16 million views. The facebook trailer has 18 million+ views. I don't consider trailer views stats to be particularly relevant unless they are over the top great or really bad but Hustlers has a lot of trailer views FWIW.
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It will be interesting to see how the streaming battle unfolds over the next few years. Every single one of these companies is overpaying for its content as of now. 90% of Netflix's original content is mediocre with very little re-watch value. Every thing Apple has shown so far looks terrible so what are they spending 6 billions on ? Disney content is for kids and fanboys so they'll get a big boost early on but how long is it going to be sustainable at their price-point ?
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:
This actually wrapped shooting in May 2017. I wouldn't expect much.
True but it is also true that it hasn't been business as usual at Fox movies for the past 12-18 months and practically every one of their release this year has either been sitting on shelf or has been pushed back at least once.
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2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Out of the descriptions, any idea which events might include MCU or non-MCU Marvel news and / or Star Wars (movie)?
Disney movie studio presentation is listed on Saturday 10 AM to Noon.
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4 hours ago, Barnack said:
Not sure about all those comp
Specially Glass being a sequel in a very popular franchise and put it in a complete different category, Elysium was a much bigger movie(125M net budget, follow up to District 9 phenomenon director, Damon, $97m WW P&A), Upside a Kevin Hart in a often proven high concept.
This is a upper echelon for low/lower echelon of mid budget adventure-horror-thriller with some star power assemble but not the first tier kind, the closest could be Gyllenhaal, Ferguson, Reynolds movie Life ? That was also horror-adventure-thriller type, not ideal release date, very similar budget range.
I think another good comparison is Cloverfield. It also came out in January and did well. You don't know with Disney but the old 20th Century Fox would've been able to market a movie like this internationally.
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These atmospheric diving suits look dope.
Vincent Cassel's Instagram
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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:
That's not why it isn't going to the festivals. It isn't because it doesn't need them since it's had buzz from the moment it was announced. There's always a contender or two opening in December each year that skip the festivals (last year it was Vice, the year before it was The Post and Phantom Thread), and an adaptation of a beloved novel from an exciting director and a starry cast opening on Christmas Day is that kind of movie.
Exciting director and starry cast don't guarantee great reviews. Critics are going to ask the question whether this remake is necessary and if the answer is no, their reviews will reflect it. I agree that the movie will make a lot of money but middling reviews in September aren't going to help the box office in December.
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It doesn't look all that different from other versions, including the 1994 version. Now I get why they are not taking it to film festivals. There is no way all the critics will be on board for a remake that doesn't look necessary at all.
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Joker will open over $100 million.
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8 hours ago, cannastop said:
Oh hey turns out Saudi Arabia actually did allow movie theaters after all. In 2018 though.
Also this:
https://variety.com/2019/film/news/saudi-arabia-movie-theaters-invest-35-billion-dollars-1203180529/
$35 billion for movie theaters.
Its all PR. The main Hollywood interest in Saudi Arabia is to have Saudi money flow into movies as investment. SA is never going to be a significant movie market because it has a relatively small population and they are also very conservative. There just isn't going to be a lot of demand for Hollywood movies there.
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It looks good and will make good money. It would've made a lot more money 4-5 years ago.
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Dolittle | Jan 17 2020 | Universal | 16% RT | Winner of the Kids Choice Award!
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Trailer may come out with Abominable next week. There is still plenty of time to market the movie.