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Everything posted by TLK

  1. There are so many unknowns right now that I think WB will take anything around $500 million for a mid-July release. They also need to release a helluva second trailer.
  2. Air-conditioning is a major issue in places like movie theaters. How can you not have air-conditioning in a closed place full of people but then the air currents make social distancing irrelevant. It doesn't really matter if people are sitting 6 feet apart if the air currents are carrying the germs. I think the intensity of pandemic will have to slow down considerably before theaters will open everywhere. Mid-July is going to be touch and go.
  3. There may be insurance issues with new film productions as well. I don't see many insurance companies taking any risks this year unless there is a well-documented cure and/or a vaccine readily available.
  4. This is ridiculous. Cinemas will start opening in many parts of the World within the next few weeks.
  5. I think they'll start opening theaters in June and the first big release should be in July.
  6. I don't think there will be a major second wave this summer as temperature definitely seems to be a factor in the spread but fall/winter can be brutal if they haven't yet found a readily-available cure/vaccine by then.
  7. Iceland is more well-connected to the rest of the world than India. That is a huge factor in the spread. I think it has played a role in countries like Australia and New Zealand not being hit as hard as Europe.
  8. I think the window of opportunity closed at around middle of February for every European country. European countries are so comprehensively connected with one another that once the virus started spreading you didn't have many options. The countries that are sparsely connected to the outside world are the ones that are faring the best for now.
  9. This isn't a polished website but it has exactly the kind of graphs and data that you want. https://project-cv19.netlify.com/
  10. The argument that China should have shut down all outgoing flights as soon as late December/ early January doesn't make a lot of sense to me considering they had no way of knowing the scale and severity of infections back then. It was in mid January when they started to realize the full scope of the disease and maybe they should've shut down all outgoing flights then but we are in April now and very few countries have shut down all outgoing flights.
  11. US will peak sometimes this month and the numbers should get to a more manageable levels in 6-8 weeks after that. I think some theaters will start opening in July but summer blockbuster season is likely done for.
  12. No, it is literally too late when you have more infections outside New York than inside. China didn't just quarantine Hubei, they quarantined practically the entire country. There are governors in United States who aren't even locking down their states. There is no piecemeal approach in a pandemic.
  13. It is too late to quarantine New York now especially when you want to re-open US economy in two weeks.
  14. Everything depends on how hard a country or a region is hit. People in Wuhan , Lombardy and even New York are going to shy away from crowded places for months to come. Cold, dark and crowded movie theaters are the last place you want to be during and after an epidemic.
  15. My Spy should end up on VOD/Streaming by late April.
  16. Biden doesn't look good physically and mentally. He is winning the Democratic primary only because he was Obama's VP. That won't help him in the GE against Trump when the campaigning starts. Trump's entire base is completely intact and all he has to do is to make Biden more unpopular and he wins the middle.
  17. Disney's parent company is getting hammered with ESPN not showing any live sports and all the theme parks closed worldwide. I wonder if they are regretting investing so much of their liquid cash and assuming billions in debt in buying Fox.
  18. The issue has always been that if the virus spreads too rapidly it will overwhelm the healthcare system. The economy is going to be in a far worse shape if that happens. China shut everything down for 2 months and it looks like they've succeeded in slowing down the virus while not going into a great depression. It can be done. The recession is inevitable no matter what you do.
  19. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. In many countries it is very common for people to have multiple mobile connections, mainly for business reasons. If the business is floundering then a lot of people are going to disconnect any extra mobile phones to save money. 15 million disconnections out of 950 million makes sense in the context.
  20. I don't agree with this doom and gloom about theatrical. People will go back to doing what they were doing once COVID19 runs its course whether it is in 3 months or 6 months.
  21. Trump is a king of distraction and the Democrats are so stupid that they always oblige. That's why he will be re-elected. The correct solution is to ignore him. Let him and his followers keep calling it the Chinese virus.
  22. "Herd immunity" is a stupid strategy to fight a virus that can overwhelm your healthcare system in a matter of days. This is also one of the reasons I'm not being too harsh on China. The first human case probably happened in mid-November and I don't think the Chinese authorities completely understood the magnitude of the crisis they were dealing with until early January. They have done a pretty good job of shutting it down since then.
  23. I don't think Iranian numbers are off significantly. They are fairly comparable to Italy in terms of number of cases. The death rate is a little higher in Italy but Iran has a fairly young population compared to Italy (6% 65+ compared to 23% 65+ population in Italy) so that's consistent with what you'd expect. Check the graphs. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
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