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Cynosure

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    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    Corpse :

     

    Golden Week: 2016 - Daily Estimates (04/29-05/05)

    Friday (Showa Day)
    ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million) / 190,000-200,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 1
    ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 205,000-215,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 14
    ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 180,000-190,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 7
    ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 100,000-105,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 1
    ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million) / 90,000-95,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 14
    ¥80,000,000 ($750,000) / 60,000-65,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 1

    Saturday
    ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 175,000-185,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 15
    ¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 160,000-170,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 8
    ¥205,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000-140,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 2
    ¥95,000,000 ($890,000) / 75,000-80,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 2
    ¥95,000,000 ($890,000) / 80,000-85,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 15
    ¥55,000,000 ($525,000) / 40,000-45,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 2
     

    • Like 1

    CIVIL WAR OS | $744M OS | $1.15B WW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    CW's saturday in Japan (per Corpse) :


    45% behind Avengers: Age of Ultron
    17% ahead of The Amazing Spider-Man 2
    12% ahead of Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice

     

    Using these three comparisons, we get an early weekend range of ~¥425-475 million for Captain America: Civil War. This range also puts it a bit higher than Iron Man 3 (¥414 million), but also a little below The Amazing Spider-Man (¥580 million) and The Avengers (¥500 million).

     

    And needless to say, the opening will be above the previous Captain America films by enormous margins (maybe over 500% higher than the first film; and over 200% higher than the second). The solo MCU films, Iron Man 3 aside, have all be big disappointments in the market.

    • Like 1

    CIVIL WAR OS | $744M OS | $1.15B WW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    10 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

    In Japan it brought in $2.8 million, more than double Iron Man 3 and not comparable to Ultron, which opened on a Saturday.

     

    Mojo... :rolleyes:

    IM3's opening friday wasn't a holiday unlike CW's friday. They mention how you can't compare CW's friday to Ultron's saturday but go on to make an even more absurd comparison (holiday friday is bigger than saturday in Japan). 

    • Like 1

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, cannastop said:
    　*1　*27308　ズートピア(Zootopia)
    　*2　*22610　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…(Detective Conan 2016)
    　*3　*14815　クレヨンしんちゃん ２０１６…(Crayon Shin-Chan)

     

    Genuinely surprised. That lead is just getting bigger and bigger.

     

    It needs to build a bigger lead before the afternoon and the evening sessions start if it wants to keep first place for the day.

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    10 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market  (% compared to Friday at same time)

     

    Conan - 12.135 (down 26%)

    Zootopia - 11.151 (down 21.5%)

    Civil War - 8.399 (down 53.5%)

     

    Zootopia holding the best, CW falling the most. As expected.

     

    Zootopia and Conan are both up slightly compared to last saturday at the same time, which is pretty impressive considering this saturday isn't a holiday.

     

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Corpse :

     

    Golden Week - 2016: Showa Day
    Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Friday Admissions (Real-Time Ticket Sales)

    10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

    16,411 > 30,236 > 42,339 > 54,484 > 69,714 > 106,708 > 118,305 > 126,755 > 126,985 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (WK3)
    18,074 > 25,765 > 41,244 > 46,531 > 50,219 > x85,303 > 100,529 > 124,160 > 125,596 - Captain America: Civil War (NEW)
    14,207 > 32,984 > 42,876 > 60,087 > 72,151 > 105,146 > 114,099 > 120,314 > 120,443 - Zootopia (WK2)
    x6,583 > 15,868 > 19,688 > 30,784 > 34,703 > x54,859 > x61,078 > x68,432 > x68,623 - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (NEW)
    x7,703 > 17,620 > 23,371 > 34,536 > 39,518 > x54,133 > x54,595 > x54,621 > x54,621 - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (WK3)
    x6,290 > x8,121 > x9,659 > 18,882 > 20,743 > x30,587 > x34,280 > x39,129 > x39,334 - Terra Formars (NEW)
    xx,xxx > x3,500 > x5,904 > 10,948 > 13,070 > x24,163 > x29,380 > x34,313 > x34,530 - I Am a Hero (WK2)
    x2,054 > x4,320 > x6,469 > x8,890 > 10,418 > x18,141 > x19,769 > x24,461 > x23,553 - The Revenant (WK2)
    xx,xxx > xx,xxx > x3,332 > x4,528 > x5,075 > xx9,675 > x10,803 > x10,890 > x10,893 - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (WK6)
    xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xx8,774 > xx9,522 > xx9,583 - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (WK2)

    And that's it. A very close race for the top spot, and the first day of Golden Week probably saw two different winners.

    Detective Conan managed to hang onto its #1 position once again, in terms of admissions, but it may have slipped to second place in terms of gross since Captain America's avg. ticket price will be notably higher. Weekday actuals are very rarely reported, so we'll probably never know for sure if there were split winners today, but I'll provide some Friday estimates after this post.

    And overall, a very strong start to the Golden Week holiday period.

    Terra Formars is the only real disappointment among the Top 10. Its pre-sales represented an unhealthy amount of its ticket sales, and its sales throughout the day were lackluster. The good news is that it has most of Golden Week left, so plenty chances of recovering, but based on Saturday's pre-sales... it's not looking likely.

     

    Golden Week: 2016 - Daily Estimates

    Friday (Showa Day)

    ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million) / 185,000-195,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War Day 1
    ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 205,000-215,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare Day 14
    ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 180,000-190,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 7
    ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 100,000-105,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 1
    ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million) / 90,000-95,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 14
    ¥80,000,000 ($750,000) / 60,000-65,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 1
     

    • Like 3

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

    Well, maybe Disney didn't do their research. Or maybe they did their research and they decided it wouldn't be so bad.

    Besides, July is for Alice 2 and Finding Dory. Zootopia has to go somewhere, and Disney had to choose a time between February and June.

     

    Ah, yes, good point. I guess they've never had such a busy schedule animation wise in nearly 2 decades (with Moana taking the New Year period). :P

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

     

    It was acting the same on the other weekdays too.

     

     

    Ah, I see. What about children (i.e. under age 18)? Do they typically only watch movies during the weekends? And is Conan's strength later in the day because it has more showings in the afternoon or because it's more male-oriented and gets more of the after-work male demographic?

     

    I would think so, yes, since they have school during weekdays.

     

    Conan is slightly more female-oriented (about 60-40% female on weekends) with a majority of its viewers being adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s. That's why it's stronger in the evening than more children oriented franchises like Doraemon, Yôkai-Watch and Pokemon which attract mainly kids and their parents.

    • Like 1

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

     

    I'm comparing it to Maoyan's numbers for the Chinese market. There, family movies like Zootopia start weekdays extremely slowly, then pick up strength in the afternoons and evenings when adults get off work and kids get off school. I feel like that should be the case in every country.

     

    The Japanese get off work pretty late during the week. Most weekdays are driven by women (40% of japanese women don't work) who go see movies during the day.

    • Like 1

    JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

    in International Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    5 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

    $2.4 to 2.7m depending how evening finishes ant ticket price

     As of 20:35

                        Adm/UL x TixPr/XR

    Conan  123,845/.63 x 1350 /107.09=$2.478m

    Zoo       118,402/.63 x 1350/107.09=$2.369m

    CA3       112,100/.63 x 1550/107.09=$2.575m

     

    Conan 126,942/0.635 x 1300/107.09 =$2.427m

    Zoo 120,416/0.641 x 1350/107.09 = $2.368m

    CA3 124,955/0.679 X 1550/107.9 = $2.6436m

     

    I updated with the new numbers, the correct Conan price and I used the percentages the seats represent for each movie based on the seating/showtime numbers :

     

    http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/page-2.html

     

    All three movies should fall on Saturday. CW probably the hardest since the rush factor, even in Japan, will have been bigger for it today compared to Zootopia and Conan.

    • Like 2
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