Cynosure
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Corpse :
Weekend Estimates (05/21-22)/2016年05月21日-2016年05月22日
01 (01) ¥476,000,000 ($4.3 million), +04%, ¥4,500,000,000 ($42.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK5
02 (03) ¥131,000,000 ($1.2 million), -29%, ¥460,000,000 ($4.2 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) WK2
03 (02) ¥128,000,000 ($1.2 million), -34%, ¥555,000,000 ($5.1 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) WK2
04 (04) ¥121,000,000 ($1.0 million), -34%, ¥5,660,000,000 ($52.2 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK6
05 (05) ¥102,000,000 ($1.0 million), -39%, ¥940,000,000 ($9.0 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK3
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), After the Storm (Gaga) NEW
07 (06) ¥90,000,000 ($820,000), -36%, ¥2,365,000,000 ($21.9 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK4
08 (---) ¥60,000,000 ($545,000), +1,870%, ¥1,975,000,000 ($17.0 million), Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) WK28
09 (08) ¥55,000,000 ($515,000), -29%, ¥1,850,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK6
10 (---) ¥55,000,000 ($515,000), 0, ¥55,000,000 ($515,000), Mobile Suit Gundam: The Origins - Chapter 3 (Shochiku) NEW
Zootopia continues its astonishing performance with what appears to be yet another weekend increase! Its fifth weekend is ~5% higher than its opening weekend, and its second biggest weekend-to-date, only behind its second weekend (by a mere ~7%).
It has also either exceeded a multiplier of 10, or is super close (9.9+), and has yet to show signs of slowing down or even reaching its peak weekly performance (excluding Golden Week). Walt Disney Animation has been on an incredible winning streak in Japan since Frozen, and we're all along for the ride once again with Zootopia. It's, honestly, impossible to project a possible finish since its week-to-week figures have been even/increasing since opening... The market is largely empty until July, so it just might have a shot of outgrossing Big Hero 6 (¥9.18 billion), and going on to achieve the uber-blockbuster milestone of ¥10 billion ($90 million+). We'll see!
After the Storm comes in with a rather disappointing debut, and might have missed the ¥100 million mark if it skewed old enough (seniors lowers the avg. ticket price). It'll likely have great legs due to its weekday business, but its chance of becoming a ¥1 billion earner aren't looking too good. And that'd be rather disappointing considering how well-received, and successful, director Hirokazu Koreeda's last couple films have been.
Girls und Panzer: The Movie sees some absurd increase near 2,000% due to expanding to 152 theaters, adding many premium format locations. Its last reported total was in late April, when it exceeded ¥1.9 billion, so it might have exceeded the ¥2 billion milestone in its twenty-seventh week in release. It'll eventually become the second-highest grossing late-night anime.-
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7 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:
Funny how people are so PC that they are offended by a compliment of a people. I said difficult as Chinese math and got a reprimand for it. People are different throughout the world. Nothing wrong with complimenting their positive attributes of complexity and morals that stand out.
I agree with you on this.
And there is almost no piracy in Japan for one because it is reprimanded very severely and for two because Japanese people tend to obey authorities.
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They're both bad. There, happy ?
The real #1 is Titanic anyway. Everyone knows it. TFA couldn't even beat it WW with 20 years of inflation, 3D premium, market expansion...
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You sure hold your grudges.
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How to make something look better than reality. Of course when you start from 0 you can only go up. But any studio will still prefer Star Wars' downward trend following episode VII to CA's updward trend.
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7 minutes ago, cannastop said:
You're talking like being risk-averse is a bad thing. I assure you that the film industry is not the only one that avoids unnessesary head to head competition.
And pointing out how few Premium Large format screens there are does not help your case.It can be when it's excessive. Not to mention it's a bit boring when you have WB changing BvS's release date because 'Oh my god competition'.
It was meant to show that PLF screens are still pretty negligeable. Having 187 of those screens instead of 374 will not make that much of a difference.
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1 hour ago, Daxtreme said:
I just wanna say something, because reading some messages in this thread and on reddit has prompted me to.
~$1.2B (and 400 dom) can't possibly be seen as a disappointment for Civil War.
The professional box office websites set everyone's expectations way off the charts and that's on them.
This is Marvel Studios' 13th movie. Any other franchise would kill to display such stability and consistent Box office drawing power. Hell, Harry Potter's final, ultimate chapter grossed $1.35B (and 380 dom), and that was the franchise's culmination, its ending point and grand finale. Some could even argue that exchange rates in 2011 were much more favorable too. Just the euro, for example, was 0.70 in July 2011 and 0.88 now, this is huge -- 100 euros now yields 113 USD, back then 100 euros yielded 143 USD = 26% (!!) more. So, at the very least, that counters inflation and market expansion.
Marvel Studios are definitely happy with this, there really is no way to twist it otherwise.
I think they probably expected more, especially DOM, but will still be satisfied with these numbers.
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21 minutes ago, cannastop said:
There is a limited amount of premium screens. It would benefit no one to try to release two humongous movies on the same day. No business deliberately chooses to make less money.
The US has about 40k screens, and in September 2014 374 of those (not even 1%) were PLF (http://www.filmjournal.com/content/bigger-picture-tracking-growth-premium-large-format). Studios are just risk-averse and the market is very hard for a new actor to penetrate in and upset things a bit.
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30 minutes ago, cannastop said:
There's no need to be foolish about it, though. It would have been utterly stupid to release Jurassic World on the same weekend as Age of Ultron.
Depends. It's certainly risky but if you think your movie is stronger and that it can hurt your competitor more than you and benefit you in the long run, it might be worth going for it.
But then, the movie business is a bit of an oligopoly where studios have this thinking that the success of one studio will always benefit them all one way or another (hence why they let Paramount's fudging of Transformers' OW slide). And that's how we have an anti-competitive market.
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Competition is good. No reason why studios shouldn't face it like any other business entity.
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3 minutes ago, setna said:
Maybe it´s the begining of a new era.
If it follows this growing year by year, in 5 years, movies over 600 million will be common in China, we can´t forget it´s incredible population of 1,3 billion people and in the next years most of them, will have enough money to go to movies regularly.
It´s a question of time (maybe not much) that China will be box office king worldwide...
A Chinese market at maturity with an average of 2 movies per person (two times less compared to DOM) and a similar average ticket price would get it close to $22.5B.
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I thought the same thing but I think the number on the right is the decrease/increase in admissions compared to the previous week, hence why today's number is red.
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So flat/slight increase in revenue.
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Wait, no, it did 98,516 last saturday so it dropped 4%.
Still an amazing hold that should see it stay flat and maybe even see a slight increase for the weekend.
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Corpse :
Weekend Forecast (05/21-22)/2016年05月21日-2016年05月22日
01 (01) ¥394,000,000 ($3.6 million), -14%, ¥4,375,000,000 ($40.9 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK5
02 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), After the Storm (Gaga) NEW
03 (02) ¥124,000,000 ($1.1 million), -36%, ¥550,000,000 ($5.0 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) WK2
04 (03) ¥121,000,000 ($1.1 million), -34%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥116,000,000 ($1.0 million), -31%, ¥950,000,000 ($9.1 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK3
06 (04) ¥114,000,000 ($1.0 million), -32%, ¥5,650,000,000 ($52.1 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK6
07 (06) ¥102,000,000 ($920,000), -28%, ¥2,375,000,000 ($22.0 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK4
08 (08) ¥57,000,000 ($520,000), -27%, ¥1,850,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK6
09 (09) ¥47,000,000 ($430,000), -35%, ¥1,420,000,000 ($13.4 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) WK5
10 (10) ¥46,000,000 ($420,000), -29%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.5 million), Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) WK4
Zootopia is going to win its third-consecutive week atop the box-office, and is looking to score another very impressive chart-topping figure. Since it increased last weekend, and with pre-sales being lower than last Saturday's, another weekend increase doesn't look likely, however, a sub-20% hold is looking good, and I wouldn't rule out a single digit drop either.
Its weekday performance this past week was notably impressive, with each individual day being up versus two weeks ago. Unless it has an unexpected drop this weekend, and there's no signs suggesting that'll happen, the film still hasn't shown any indication of slowing down at the box office quite yet despite going into its fifth week.
After the Storm is award-winning director Hirokazu Koreeda's (Like Father, Like Son, Our Little Sister) latest release starring Hiroshi Abe and Yoko Maki. It's not going to debut to anything remarkable, but it's likely to develop excellent legs thanks to its reception, and also what's bound to be strong weekday business due to its older demographic.
And finally, two films that are very difficult to predict, but are likely going to rank in the Top 10 this weekend:
Girls und Panzer: The Movie (yes, the one that's been playing since last November...) is expanding a lot this weekend; including numerous premium format showing additions. Its pre-sales are very strong and its avg. ticket price will be very high, so it's probably going to chart back in the Top 10 once again. If I had to make a prediction, I'd go with it coming in 7th place this weekend.
And the third film in the Mobile Suit Gundam Origins series is opening this weekend, and could very well make the Top 10 this weekend, too. The last film debuted with ¥55 million last October, which would be enough for a Top 10 position for weekend's release if can replicate its debut. Its chances of making the Top 10 are more likely than not.-
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Holdovers usually drop more in pre-sales compared to total weekend holds so that's useful. Considering that last saturday was a discount day at Toho's, pre-sales drop will be a bit harsher compared to a normal weekend, therefore I think with a 22% drop in pre-sales for Zootopia in admissions we're definitely looking at a single-digit drop in admissions for the weekend (around 7-8% I'd say) and an even lower drop in revenue if not a flat weekend overall.
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Pre-sales for Saturday :
*1 19119 222699 723 150 *78.0% ズートピア
*2 11709 *40761 200 *89 ****** ガールズ＆パンツァー 劇場版
*3 10161 *29484 *75 *10 ****** 機動戦士ガンダム ＴＨＥ ＯＲＩＧＩＮ Ⅲ 暁の蜂起
*4 *5793 *99250 565 152 *55.6% シビル・ウォー キャプテン・アメリカ
*5 *4440 164896 636 123 ****** 海よりもまだ深く
*6 *4203 132303 648 139 *42.6% 殿、利息でござる！
*7 *4072 103843 626 141 *46.1% ６４－ロクヨン－前編
*8 *3665 131444 689 139 *38.2% 世界から猫が消えたなら
*9 *3193 *97652 533 150 *48.3% 名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の悪夢（ナイトメア）
10 *2364 *23706 110 *86 *18.1% 劇場版 遊☆戯☆王 ＴＨＥ ＤＡＲＫ ＳＩＤＥ ＯＦ ＤＩＭＥＮＳＩＯＮＳ -
Seat adjustments in Japan are pretty slow. You almost never have a movie losing a huge amount of seats quickly even when it flops like it happens in China. The biggest movies can manage around 50% capacity at most during their opening weekend so unless you're Frozen there comes a point where more seats really don't make that much of a difference.
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2.92 million admissions.
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Corpse :
New Era Walt Disney Animation Showdown
Zootopia vs Big Hero 6 vs Frozen
¥446 million ($4.0 million)
¥509 million ($4.8 million), +14%, ¥1.44 billion ($13.3 million)
¥387 million ($3.6 million), -24%, ¥2.99 billion ($27.9 million)
¥458 million ($4.2 million), +19%, ¥3.73 billion ($35.0 million)
¥600 million ($5.2 million)
¥454 million ($3.9 million), -24%, ¥2.08 billion ($17.4 million)
¥665 million ($5.6 million), +46%, ¥4.14 billion ($35.2 million)
¥546 million ($4.6 million), -18%, ¥5.72 billion ($48.6 million)
¥426 million ($3.7 million), -22%, ¥6.41 billion ($54.7 million)
¥349 million ($3.0 million), -18%, ¥7.03 billion ($59.9 million)
¥307 million ($2.6 million), -12%, ¥7.57 billion ($64.5 million)
¥227 million ($1.9 million), -26%, ¥7.97 billion ($67.9 million)
¥163 million ($1.4 million), -28%, ¥8.38 billion ($71.5 million)
¥131 million ($1.1 million), -20%, ¥8.61 billion ($73.4 million)
¥159 million ($1.3 million), +21%, ¥8.84 billion ($75.1 million)
¥63 million ($540,000), -59%, ¥8.96 billion ($76.2 million)
¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)
¥700 million ($6.9 million), -13%, ¥19.85 billion ($194.6 million)
¥759 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million)
¥592 million ($5.8 million), -23%, ¥22.33 billion ($218.9 million)
¥392 million ($3.8 million), -34%, ¥23.10 billion ($226.4 million)
¥364 million ($3.5 million), -08%, ¥23.76 billion ($233.0 million)
¥274 million ($2.7 million), -25%, ¥24.25 billion ($237.9 million-
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Corpse :
(C)2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved.
Weekend Actuals (05/14-15)/2016年05月14日-2016年05月15日
01 (01) ¥458,930,800 ($4.2 million), +19%, ¥3,728,873,500 ($35.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK4
02 (---) ¥194,881,200 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥229,764,400 ($2.1 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) NEW
03 (---) ¥184,709,900 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥184,709,900 ($1.7 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) NEW
04 (02) ¥183,598,100 ($1.7 million), -34%, ¥5,432,868,900 ($50.1 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK5
05 (03) ¥168,813,900 ($1.6 million), -35%, ¥708,688,300 ($6.8 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK2
06 (04) ¥140,954,600 ($1.3 million), -37%, ¥2,154,707,900 ($20.0 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK3
07 (09) ¥100,020,900 ($921,000), +26%, ¥631,429,200 ($5.8 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) WK4
08 (06) ¥78,483,500 ($722,000), -30%, ¥1,787,122,100 ($16.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK5
09 (07) ¥72,963,900 ($671,000), -30%, ¥1,319,017,700 ($12.5 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) WK4
10 (08) ¥65,194,500 ($600,000), -37%, ¥942,081,400 ($8.8 million), Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) WK3
>Zootopia wins its second-consecutive week atop the box office, after climbing to the number one position last weekend, its third week of release. Walt Disney's latest hit saw a very, very impressive 20% jump in admissions, selling 351,049 tickets over its fourth weekend of release; bring its four week admissions above 2.9 million. Its fourth weekend, in terms of gross and admissions, ranks as its second biggest weekend-to-date (behind its second weekend).
The film may have started off below expectations, but it's now well on its way in exceeding them. A very conservative projection now is that it'll exceed the ¥5 billion ($45 million+) blockbuster milestone, but there's no reason anymore doubt that it's going to go comfortably higher than that mark. Its actually been improving upon its weekday performance (Monday, yesterday, was up once again versus last week) and has been playing a bit better in the evening than during its first couple weeks in release. All of this indicates positive WOM has definitely spread, and it's begun to attract a very wide audience that includes adults.
So, given that it's just now found its stride and has yet to find its peak, even after four weeks, there is a lot of potential here for a huge run still to come that'll probably go into July. I wouldn't be too surprised if it's able to eventually exceed ¥7 billion ($65 million+), which would give it a multiplier above 15 (on par with Big Hero 6).
>The Magnificent Nine comes in a solid second place, selling a decent 159,960 admissions over the weekend on 308 screens. The film is the latest is a successful streak of period comedies that has really become a bankable genre over the past few years. It should have little trouble exceeding the ¥1 billion milestone, and could make a run at ¥1.5 billion ($12-14 million).
>If Cats Disappeared from the World narrowly manages a third place start, selling 141,691 admissions across 290 screens over the weekend. Overall, this is a mediocre debut, even if it's the standard opening for a May/June release. At the helm was acclaimed director Yoshihiro Nakamura; pre-sales were encouraging, and most theaters gave it their largest screens, yet it was unable to captivate many over the actual weekend. Still, it should be able to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone, so considering it a modest success.
>Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare continues to hold on fairly well and is about to outgross Yo-Kai Watch 2 to become the second biggest film of the year. It's already become a blockbuster by exceeding ¥5 billion, as well as becoming the highest-grossing, and most-attended, film in the series, so the only achievements left are to simply outgross other films.
>Captain America: Civil War slips two more spots, falling out of the Top 5 after three weeks in release. However, it continues to outpace Iron Man 3, though narrowing its lead from 11% to just 5%, with a similar third weekend gross, so it should still be on track to outgross it; becoming the market's highest-grossing non-Spider-Man/Avengers film in the market.-
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http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/
It's up on last saturday. One of the chains has a discount day but it should still be flat or increase for the overall weekend.
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And $1B WW is almost a lock, at least if Zootopia does as well in Japan as pre-sales and early sales suggest ! It definitely seems to be behaving like a mini-Frozen with the vast majority of its gross coming from strong weekends.
Corpse :
(C)2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved.
Weekend Forecast (05/14-15)/2016年05月14日-2016年05月15日
01 (01) ¥430,000,000 ($4.0 million), +11%, ¥3,650,000,000 ($34.3 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK4
02 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) NEW
03 (---) ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) NEW
04 (02) ¥212,000,000 ($2.0 million), -24%, ¥5,425,000,000 ($50.0 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK5
05 (03) ¥206,000,000 ($1.9 million), -20%, ¥650,000,000 ($6.2 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK2
06 (04) ¥158,000,000 ($1.5 million), -29%, ¥2,150,000,000 ($20.0 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK3
07 (06) ¥97,000,000 ($895,000), -18%, ¥1,800,000,000 ($16.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK5
08 (07) ¥94,000,000 ($865,000), -10%, ¥1,330,000,000 ($12.6 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) WK4
09 (09) ¥91,000,000 ($840,000), +20%, ¥615,000,000 ($5.6 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) WK4
10 (08) ¥76,000,000 ($700,000), -26%, ¥930,000,000 ($8.7 million), Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) WK3
10 (11) ¥47,000,000 ($430,000), -17%, ¥925,000,000 ($8.5 million), The Revenant (Fox) WK5
I forgot that today (Saturday) is a Toho Cinemas Day (discount ticket prices), so weekend drops will be quite good. Also, this weekend has been strong over the past few years, so we might be in store for some very, very good holds (some sub-20%, with chances of increases).
>Zootopia, in particular, is in spectacular shape. It held very well last week over the post-Golden Week weekend to earn its first #1 ranking (in its third weekend), and is looking to repeat this weekend.
And I'm nearly 100% certain it's going to experience a weekend increase. Audiences are really, really taking advantage of the discount day to see this one. Last year, Cinderella only dropped 4% this weekend (without any assistance), so an increase does look almost assured for Zootopia.
>If Cats Disappeared from the World was looking good prior to the weekend, but its barely picked up any momentum now that the weekend is upon it. It was outpacing The Magnificent Nine by a comfortable margin on just two days ago, but they two are running very close now based on pre-sales. These films are playing to two very different audiences (almost exclusively teens and women vs. almost exclusively adults/seniors), so it's difficult to say which one has the advantage this weekend.
And depending on how well the holds are this weekend, Detective Conan and 64: Part 1 could certainly hold well enough to remain viable Top 3 contenders.
>Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions looks like it's going to enjoy yet another weekend increase, but its small release makes it very difficult to pinpoint an accurate percentage range of that increase. Let's say 20%? *shrug* This film has been quite unpredictable, even by most limited/near limited release anime film standards.
>The 10th position this weekend is up for grabs (since Terra Formars continues its collapse), but I'm betting on The Revenant climbing back into the Top 10.... However, the second HK: Hentai Kamen film actually has fair pre-sales; I just can't see its low theater count of 53 (85%! accounted for at the usual locations) allowing it to make a serious play at the Top 10.-
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1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:
Not for the kiddies, that doesn't fit what I saw. When I watch CW I saw just one kid, almost all of the cinema was full of 20-something like me and 30-something. There are teens and kids watching these movies of course, particularly The Avengers.
Now the problem is you don't see many people older than 35 and not many women apart from the ones going with their boyfriend. Alas, people under 35 are not a growing category and women are a major part of them. With an older and more feminine audience Europe is not the best place for Marvel...Still, it's very successful among the targeted audience.
And as I said the economy has been tough here, Spain and Italy's movie markets collapsed for example, before rebounding a bit, it's not the best place and the right time.
Considering all that these are good numbers.
The US and many emerging markets are a much better fit demographically and economically speaking.
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Cynosure
I'm going with a ￥9.4 billion / $86m final total