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Everything posted by Quigley

  1. Weekend 02–05/05/2019 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Avengers: Endgame 107,133 +14.9% 410,749 2 2 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 13,264 +235.6% 104,633 4 3 Cliffs of Freedom 8,978 – 8,978 1 4 Missing Link 5,252 +190.6% 20,289 3 5 After 4,422 +135.2% 96,403 4 6 Cats and Peachtopia [Chinese] 3,713 +2,311.0% 5,493 2 7 The Curse of La Llorona 3,414 +84.4% 36,787 3 8 Dumbo 2,292 +324.4% 94,730 6 9 C'est ça l'amour [French] 2,024 – 2,024 1 10 Teen Spirit 1,483 – 1,483 1 Source: http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-endgame-for-whom/ 'Endgame' has exceeded expectations on every step of the way so far. After an initial rush leading to massively crowded theaters and numerous days of public holidays, it seems like this movie is reaching out to more than just die-hard fans. During the post-Easter weekend frame, it increased compared to its first 4-day weekend. Even when taking into account its opening Wednesday, it only dropped 37.5%. It reminds of 'Clash of the Titans' which opened on Easter Sunday (in 2010) to 36,000 admissions and went on to sell 114,484 admissions on its second weekend. 'Endgame's sophomore frame is also on par with 'Avatar's 2nd weekend (108,500 admissions) and it is higher than the opening weekends of all MCU films, except for 'Infinity War'. However, the biggest second weekend of all time is '300's' 285,000 admissions, which was an inconceivably strong hold (-12%) compared to its record-breaking opening frame. 'Endgame' has already become the biggest superhero film since 2003 (and maybe of all time?), by surpassing 'Spider-Man 2's' 385,700 admissions (the total admission count of 2002's 'Spider-Man' remains unknown though). All this is good news whichever way you slice it. I have done a few projections by comparing 'Endgame's' 2nd weekend to the trajectory of other MCU films that opened on the post-Easter weekend. One such film is 'Civil War', which also happens to be the most front-loaded MCU film (a detailed chart for all MCU films can be found in the above post). Even if 'Endgame' drops that bad from now on, it would still reach 530,000 admissions. If it follows 'Iron Man's' slightly less front-loaded trajectory (also released on the post-Easter weekend), it should reach 560,000 admissions. I would bet it ends up somewhere within that range. With 500K admissions a foregone conclusion by now, it would only be the 4th film since 'Avatar' to reach this remarkable milestone – the other three being 'Nisos' (a.k.a. 'The Island', a Greek comedy released 10 days after 'Avatar') at 549K admissions, 'Skyfall' at 580K admissions and 'Enas allos kosmos' (a.k.a. 'Worlds Apart', a Greek film released right before Christmas 2015) at 669K admissions. 'Worlds Apart' is far out of reach, but topping 'Skyfall' would be extremely impressive. I doubt it will happen, but the film has already achieved far more than anyone could ever dream of. The penetration of most MCU films in Greece has been noticeably low (mirroring most European countries); therefore seeing such numbers, especially during these dreadful box office doldrums, is truly mind-blowing. In other news, 'Dragon 3' has crossed 100K admissions and is headed to become the franchise's biggest film (needs 131K admissions to do so). 'After' will soon reach 100K admissions too, a milestone that 'Dumbo' also has hopes of reaching. Otherwise, the market has been very quiet. It will be another 2 weeks by the time 'Pokemon Detective Pikachu' arrives and 3 weeks for 'Aladdin'. I wouldn't expect either film to break out, but even then, 'Endgame' has plenty of time to continue its ascent unabated.
  2. In Greece, Endgame sold 107,133 admissions during its sophomore frame. This was a 15% increase when comparing TFSS. Contributing to this was the fact that it opened on a Wednesday and that last weeked was Easter weekend so many cinemas were closed. If we take into account its opening Wednesday admissions too, it dropped 38% during it second weeked. Still a very impressive number. Higher than all MCU opening weekends except Infinity War. It is already the biggest superhero film of all time (my data go back to 2003 – there is a chance that Spider-Man from 2002 earned more). It is the biggest film of the last 3.5 years. It should easily surpass The Force Awakens and Spectre to become the biggest non-local film since 2012's Skyfall.
  3. One way to settle all this would be admission numbers. Even then though, one could argue that what matters is admissions as a percentage of world population (at the time). It's impossible to find a single measure that would objectively determine a movie's success. But since admissions eliminate the issue of exchange rates, it seems like a better compromise than dollars.
  4. Actual Infinity War never reached $1B in OS-Ch. The BOM figure for China is wrong. It reached $376M in China, which means that OS-Ch barely missed $1B (it topped out at $993M).
  5. In Russia, the film opened last Monday. For overseas weekend figures, it is common practice for studios to report all the earnings a film has made up to its first Sunday as part of the opening weekend figure. Therefore, although Russia's traditional weekend lasts 4 days (Thu-Sun), the weekend figure that will be reported tomorrow will include all 7 days from Monday to Sunday.
  6. It's not frontloaded at all. As I pointed out in my earlier post, its Friday gross (with or without China) is the same as Infinity War, as a proportion of its OS opening weekend. Therefore these numbers do not suggest that it is frontloaded. [EDIT:] Conversely, Thursday was inflated due to the holidays in certain countries.
  7. On its second Friday, Infinity War had grossed $38.1M, which is 10% of its $382M OS opening weekend. Endgame grossed $88.2M, which is 10.2% of its $867M opening weekend. If we remove China, Friday was $52.4M, which is 9.8% of its $536 OS-Ch opening weekend. If Endgame's 2nd Friday makes up the same proportion of its OS 2nd weekend as Inifnity War, it should should gross $219M in OS-Ch. Including Russia's Mon-to-Thu gross, which will be included in the weekend figure, it will get to $243M. OS-Ch total by Sunday should be at around $0.98-1.00 billion. (taking into account that some countrie's Thu and Wed gross will be part of OS weekend). Add in a $64M weekend from China and its China gross will reach $575M. So in total, OS should be at $1.55-1.58B. 2nd OS weekend should be at $307M – 6th highest OS weekend ever. Rough calculations but hopefully accurate.
  8. What we know for Russia so far: $7.8M MON (day-to-day % change) $5.3M TUE (-32%) $6.3M WED (+19%) --- National holiday $4.7M THU (-25%) --- National holiday TOTAL: $24.1M Can anyone give us an idea of how the weekend might play out? Friday is also a national holiday. Are Saturday and Sunday working days or are they a normal weeked?
  9. Where is the evidence for this? In previous occasions where they underestimated a specific daily gross, they usually announce the new total gross [in this case, up to Thu] and the latest daily gross [in this case, Thu]. By subtracting the two, we would notice that the total by Wednesday was higher. In the case of Endgame, this didn't happen. 1,311.8-100=1,211.8. This is the number that was reported after Wedensday's grosses were factored in, so there is no change from their previous estimate. OS Thu is $100M. OS-Ch is $49.9M.
  10. OS-Ch dropped from $83.4M on Wed (May Day) to $49.9M on Thu. That is a 40.2% drop. Infinity War dropped 50.0% Marvel's the Avengers dropped 51.3% Iron Man 3 dropped 54.6% (for this calculation, I have removed China which opened on May 1 and Russia which opened on May 2) Dunno if it's a fluke, but seems amazing to me.
  11. And here are the admissions for every single film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. As we can see, 'Captain Marvel' has done noticeably well and 'Endgame' will become the biggest film of the franchise by Sunday. MCU Rank Title Opening weekend Total Release date Multiplier 1 Avengers: Infinity War 129,549 363,487 26/04/18 2.81 2 Avengers: Endgame 93,217 303,616 24/04/19 3.26 3 The Avengers 75,755 242,565 26/04/12 3.20 4 Avengers: Age of Ultron 94,250 224,334 30/04/15 2.38 5 Captain America: Civil War 101,800 215,155 05/05/16 2.11 6 Iron Man 3 66,278 206,006 25/04/13 3.11 7 Captain Marvel 63,580 201,894 07/03/19 3.18 8 Doctor Strange 58,232 169,010 27/10/16 2.90 9 Thor: Ragnarok 60,036 165,522 02/11/17 2.76 10 Iron Man 2 61,080 154,360 29/04/10 2.53 11 Black Panther 41,104 153,120 15/02/18 3.73 12 Iron Man 61,400 146,800 01/05/08 2.39 13 Thor: The Dark World 51,418 128,339 21/11/13 2.50 14 Spider-Man: Homecoming 41,556 127,663 06/07/17 3.07 15 Thor 55,630 125,857 28/04/11 2.26 16 Captain America: The Winter Soldier 32,489 108,964 03/04/14 3.35 17 Guardians of the Galaxy 25,646 88,292 04/09/15 3.44 18 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 35,156 84,120 04/05/17 2.39 19 The Incredible Hulk 22,000 70,000* 12/06/08 3.18 20 Captain America: The First Avenger 24,850 65,938 01/09/11 2.65 21 Ant-Man and the Wasp 18,970 65,564 05/07/18 3.46 22 Ant-Man 18,674 47,985 17/09/15 2.57 *This number is my own estimate. Another chart that I forgot to post is the chart with the biggest openign days. This is very incomplete, which is why I have not added rankings. Many films are missing – most noticeably '300', 'Troy', 'Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End' and '2012', which hold 4 of the top 5 opening weekends. Title OD admissions Date Avengers: Endgame 78,261 Wed, April 24, 2019 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 66,024* Thu, August 24, 2006 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse 50,567 Wed, June 30, 2010 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 50,350 Wed, July 13, 2011 The Da Vinci Code 47,625 Thu, May 18, 2006 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 47,378 Tue, August 21, 2007 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 42,624 Tue, August 25, 2009 Spectre 40,673 Thu, November 12, 2015 *then-record Furthermore, visit the first page for an updated list of this year's Top 10.
  12. A $21.4M Thu follows the trajectory of Marvel's the Avengers and Inifnity War. Their Thu-to-OW ratio is identical to Endgame. Bodes well for 2nd weekend.
  13. The only thing I would add is that I think Russia will have a big jump on Saturday since it opened on Monday. The initial rush and frontloadedness will have died down by Saturday.
  14. Easter Weekend 25–28/04/2019 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % change from last weekend Total admissions (up to Sunday) Mon-to-Wed admissions Week 1 Avengers: Endgame 93,217 – 171,478 132,138 1 2 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 3,952 -80.8% 81,481 9,888 3 3 After 1,880 -89.5% 87,846 4,135 3 4 The Curse of La Llorona 1,851 -85.8% 29,496 3,874 2 5 Missing Link 1,807 -70.2% 11,043 3,994 2 6 Hellboy 596 -84.2% 21,219 972 3 7 Dumbo 540 -85.6% 90,923 1,515 5 8 The Professor and the Madman 470 -86.6% 39,172 1,061 5 9 Shazam! 419 -91.9% 59,793 945 4 10 Transit [German] 199 -86.3% 2,189 474 2 Source: http://freecinema.gr/greek-box-office-event-movies-that-mystery/ http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/4559/box-office-oi-ekdikites-eferan-tin-anastasi-sta-tameia The wait for box-office numbers was painful but well worth it. 'Avengers: Endgame's' global earthquake did not affect Greece in the same way that it did elsewhere. However, in these grim times, performing better than it did would have been almost impossible. The Greek box office is going through one of its quietest periods in the last 15 years (since last September and even worse from January onwards). The country is in a decade-long economic recession with little hope on the horizon. More than half a million people, most of them young and educated, have abandoned the country (the total population is only about 11 million). The MCU may be a decade-long franchise, but barring 'Inifinity War', its previous instalments had managed very moderate results: the best yearly ranking for a film was #7 for 'Civil War' in 2016. Taking all the above into account, when 'Endgame' broke the opening-day record on its first Wednesday, it didn't happen without raising a few eyebrows. Its total up to Sunday was a whopping 171,478 admissions (the traditional weekend is Thursday to Sunday). However, since most cinemas were closed on Friday and Saturday, it was basically a 3-day weekend. Even so, it broke the superhero opening-weekend record (held by 'Spider-Man 3' at 159,000 admissions). If it were a normal 4-day weekend, it would rank 8th among all-time opening weekends: Ranking Title Weekend admissions 1 300 317,000–325,000 2 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 219,696 3 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 213,490 4 Troy 200,000 5 2012 184,475 6 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 178,200 7 The Da Vinci Code 177,811 8 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 170,392 9 Loufa kai Parallagi: Seirines sto Aigaio [GR] 169,000 10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 166,211 'Endgame' did not stop there though. With public holidays on Monday and Wednesday and with many workplaces closed on Tuesday, it scored a shocking 303,616 admissions in 8 days. Here is the day-by-day breakdown: Admissions Wed, 24/4 78,261 Thu, 25/4 59,471 Fri, 26/4 1,144 Sat, 27/4 7,785 Sun, 28/4 24,817 Mon, 29/4 42,956 Tue, 30/4 50,154 Wed, 1/5 39,028 It is already the 2nd-biggest MCU film, with 'Marvel's the Avengers' being a distant third at 242,565 admissions and 'Infinity War's' 363,487-admission tally soon to be eclipsed. Among all superhero films, it already ranks 6th and will reach first place within a matter of days: Biggest superhero films (since 2003) Rank Title Opening weekend Total 1 Spider-Man 2 82,300 385,700 2 Spider-Man 3 159,000 366,987 3 Avengers: Infinity War 129,549 363,487 4 The Dark Knight Rises 74,530 346,585 5 The Dark Knight 100,000 339,520 6 Avengers: Endgame 93,217 303,616 7 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 122,428 276,311 8 The Avengers 75,755 242,565 9 Avengers: Age of Ultron 94,250 224,334 10 Deadpool 2 82,773 221,697 It's been a while since a movie has had such a satisfying opening frame, albeit this frame was quite extended. Moving on to holdovers, the situation is worse than one could imagine. 'Endgame' commanded a ridiculous 88% market share. Even if we compare the entire week's earnings (Thu-to-Wed) with the preceding 4-day weekend, no holdover managed to increase. In fact out of 9 holdovers in this week's Top 10, only 3 managed to drop less than 50%: 'Dragon 3' (-33%), 'Missing Link' (-4%) and 'Dumbo' (-45%), when comparing the 7-day week to the preceding 4-day weekend. A rebound is to be expected this weekend. I guesstimate that 'Endgame' will drop 50% on Thursday to 20K admissions. If that daily number is maintained on average throughout the weekend, that would lead to 80-90K admissions over the weekend and a 390,000-admission total by Sunday. Reaching 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens's' 446,258-admission tally should then be a piece of cake. The half-million mark is the ultimate goal. If it gets there, that would be truly remarkable. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though. In the meantime, 'Dragon 3' and 'After' both have the 100K-admission milestone within sight and are fighting for who's gonna get there first. 'Dumbo' might also get there, although it will probably miss it by a little. This one certainly didn't fly!
  15. In Greece, it has sold 303,000 admissions by Wednesday, according to the local distributor. Considering that theaters were closed on Friday and Saturday due to Easter, that is basically a 6-day total. It is important to note that Monday and Wednesday were public holidays and many workplaces (including banks) were closed on Tuesday as well. It will undoubtedly become the highest-grossing superhero film of all time (ahead of 'Spider-Man 2' which sold 385,700 admissions in 2004) and the first film in the last 3.5 years to cross 400,000 admissions. The last one to do so was 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'. To enter the Top 10 all time, it would have to sell 940,000 admissions ('Avatar' is at #10 with 939,804 admissions). It is out of the question. But in the post-economic crisis era (2010 onwards), only 9 films have crossed 400,000 admissions. Only 3 films have crossed 500,000 admissions. If Endgame gets there, that would be monumental.
  16. If the WW number by Sunday reaches $2.2B, then it might top Avatar by the Sunday after. I'd give it another week though.
  17. You hadn't mentioned a source, so how could I know your source or if it was a list that you put together yourself? If you had initially mentioned that your source is Wikipedia, I would have blamed Wikipedia and not you. Therefore this discussion wouldn't have happened. Anyway, now that we've resolved this misunderstanding, I hope it doesn't happen again in the future...
  18. Northern Cyprus is not a legitimate country. The only country on the island of Cyprus is the Republic of Cyprus (from now on referred to as 'Cyprus') and the whole island belongs to this republic (according to the UN and all countries in the world except Turkey). The northern part of the island is occupied by the Turkish army and has declared itself as an independent country, but the only country in the world that recognises it as such is Turkey. I thought it was even more annoying that you included "Northern Cyprus" in that list but not Cyprus. I probably wouldn't have commented otherwise but you crossed a line. Cyprus also celebrates May Day. Northern Cyprus, according to every country and every international organisation in the world (except Turkey), is not a legitimate state. Please don't make this provocative and political when there is no reason for it to be. If it was an honest mistake, then let's forget that it happened.
  19. GREECE: Endgame dropped about 23% on Thursday (est. 60K admissions). In only 2 days, it has already surpassed the 4-day opening weekend of 'Infinity War' (without previews). Shocking results.
  20. According to the distributor, 'Endgame' has sold approximately 60,000 admissions on its second day. This means that, in two days, it has already sold more than 'Infinity War's opening weekend (129K admissions, without previews). Great Friday and Saturday will be quiet, but the film will pick up steam again on Easter Sunday. It should be at 200K admissions by then. Official numbers will be out on Tuesday, hopefully. Wednesday is also a public holiday, so if we are unlucky, we'll have to wait 'til Thursday for official numbers.
  21. Endgame broke the opening-day record in Greece, according to Boxofficepro. However, I want to point out that this is in local currency (euros), not admissions. https://www.boxofficepro.com/avengers-endgame-brings-in-169m-from-opening-day-overseas/ Worth a read.
  22. In GREECE, it sold 78,261 admissions on its opening day. Historical data are incomplete but it is definitely among the Top 3 opening days of all time (the other two being '300' and 'Troy'). It may even be an all-time record! INCONCEIVABLE.
  23. HOLY MOTHER OF MONKEY MILK. The distributor is reporting that it sold 78,261 admissions!!! The highest opening day that I have managed to find from an official source is 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest' at 66,024 admissions. '300' probably did 60-80K admissions on its opening day. However, the biggest single day in history is '300's' first Saturday and Sunday, each at 100,000 admissions. Massive by all accounts. It may even be an all-time record. I doubt it will manage to maintain such levels throughout the weekend, but if there's one movie that could overturn the usual Easter weekend trend, it's this one! [CORRECTION: A previous version of this post said 'Troy' instead of '300'.]
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