Quigley
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Posts posted by Quigley
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I really hope all these predictions come true, but it will only take ONE SINGLE FILM that will overperform in the next 2 months to ruin everything. It's a lot to hope for.
Lol, I did believe this was gonna happen, but I never realised that this "one single film" would actually be itself.
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Impressed and surprised but tlet's see how it holds until Subday.
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I am so glad Wreck-It Ralph wasn't a musical.
In other unrelated news, talking about being relaxed and all, you guys don't seem to be capable of relaxing either. It is just a movie into which you built too high expectations. Decrease your expectations and you might be surprised.
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I could see it going 40m+ this weekend, no new competition.
Any women interest will evaporate and men aren't enough to keep it going on their own.
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That's the estimate. Various sites rounded it off to 171.1 when reporting. The 171.08 number is there since Sunday.
I thought that BOM had it at $171,100,000 and that $171,080,000 is an updated number.
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$1B WW is expected. Looks to repeat & give what TF3 had done. Pirates 4 has a lousy story, that OS gross still hit $800M, it's just insane this franchise thing. People tend to love familiar heroes. But how far can you go? Will Pirates 5, if green lit at all, go to Deathly Hallows 2's fantastical $960M OS?
I don't think NA will honor the alien robots like it did for previous instalments. I doubt it will get to $300M. And if anything, Europe's contribution will fall dramatically. It's up to Latin America (not so much) and Asia (minus Japan) to save it, but I'm not convinced it will happen. I say NA: $260M and outside NA: $720M for WW $980M. Pirates 5 has big potential but only if it is a good film. I think many fans (including me) were disppointed with the 4th so unless the next one is very good, many will avoid watching it (ticket-price inflation and the booming Chinese market can still help it reach $1B, but no one can say for sure).
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Week chart for X-Men:DOP please?
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By the way, I still don't see this how movie can beat Last Stand's NA total. The drop this weekend will be at best -60% giving it about $35-37M. That is just $2M more than Last Stand's second weekend and it is trailing that film by $11-12M. It can get to $225M I believe, but not $234M (Last Stand's NA total).
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Yeah. DOFP had a great number yesterday and now it's doing "normally".
On the bright side I'm pretty sure it's still looking at a $35+ weekend.
Tuesdays have become very strong in the past 2 years. It wasn't something inherent to the movie. You will notice this for many movies compared to 2010 for example. That's why the Tue-to-Wed drop is always so big.
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It's official:
http://www.digifilm.com.cn/movie_issue/index
They will hurt each other. All being visual feasts, probably all gonna sort of underperform.
Trans4mers won't underperform. Being the last on the list, it won't suffer from post-release competition. And it is guaranteed to open higher than the others. Even in North America, usually the last movie on a long list will have better holds than the rest, even if it has a lower opening weekend. For example, Planes last summer opened lower than Smurfs 2 and Turbo (both had 5-day openings), but it out-grossed both of them in the end.
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I don't think "relax" is in Quigley's and Omni's vocabulary.
Dat true.
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I really hope all these predictions come true, but it will only take ONE SINGLE FILM that will overperform in the next 2 months to ruin everything. It's a lot to hope for.
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weekend actuals always go up like only 1-3M range.
The weekend actual is right next to the total and is updated to $171.08M. Virtually no change from the estimate.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=xmen2014.htm
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DOFP could have sharp drops in the following weekends. If it surpasses Cap 2, it will be by a small margin.
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I think it will drop a reasonable 50-53% (including Japan opening). So around 52-55% drop in holdovers. Total between $320M and $325M by Sunday. Very impressive.
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Hans13
Wednesday 5/28 Admissions [Last Wk-Today]
*4 chains
109....6444----6024 -6.5%
kinezo.5507----5649 +2.5% (*estimate)
movix..8376----7902 -5.7%
toho...27983--26580 -5%
total..48331--46155 -4.5%
(actual)
*Today Estimate - 175m yen ($1.72m)
*Current Total Estimate - 20.27b yen ($199.1m current exchange rate)
So apparently, the release of Rio 2 on Wednesday had absolutely no effect on Frozen (I never believed it would). If anything, the small minority of people who went to the movies to watch Rio 2 saw that Frozen was still playing and they changed their minds.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2357291/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ql_9
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I agree that $20M is the ceiling for this film, but a lower gross is much more likely.
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Bottom line is everything bodes well for Frozen once again. Unless X-Men:DOFP or All Around Appraiser Q overperform, which to my understanding is unlikely, Frozen will not only finish in first place but also a have a minute drop this weekend (or even increase).
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Apparently the news about Frozen crossing 20b yen is everywhere (in Japan of course). In several days it will pass HP1 to be the 3rd highest grossing movie of all time, so it will become news again. I won't be surprised if it stays flat this weekend because of this. Sunday is a discount day too (1st of the month). Perfect timing.
In light of this fact, a single-digit drop is a possibility. Even if that doesn't happen, I still think it will remain at #1.
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You are quite right to compare it with POTC4, but for POTC4, Japan had also opened on OW and it had a leggy run. If you remove Japan from the equation, the opening was 241.8m and total was 695.5m. Performing the same calculation with these numbers will yield 492m from current markets. I am expecting 475m because of slightly heavier competition, and another 35m from the remaining markets.
You are right. If anything, Japan should be excluded from the total to avoid skewing the comparison. In such a case, with ~$510M outside NA, whether it will surpass Captain America 2 in worldwide grosses remains to be seen (I hope it doesn't, but the fact that there is no clear winner in this 3-way Marvel comic-book adaptation competition makes it even more interesting to observe).
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Nothing's stopping Frozen. Last weekend's slightly disappointing drop has been compensated by Monday. $250M is a foregone conclusion. $300M is likely and $315M is, well, possible, but I want to keep my hopes down for now.
What I really want is for Frozen to reach $900M OS. If it beats HP7:P2, even better.
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Corpse explained that HMC made 19.6B in its original in its original run and 22B including a re-release.
Wouldn't that still make Frozen 5th all time?
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Corpse said: It has become the fourth Highest-Grossing Film of All-Time with a total of ¥19.85 billion ($194.6 million) and 15.59 million admissions.
I thought it was 5th (behind SA, Titanic, HMC and HP1).
What is the HMC total after all then?
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
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To be honest, your determination is impressive but I don't think they will change it now that they've announced it.