Quigley
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Posts posted by Quigley
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I'm not sure if anyone has pointed it out but on Monday, it surpassed Iron Man 3's overseas gross ($806.4M) to become the highest-grossing film of 2013 outside North America. Next stop, in what appears to be an almost guaranteed outcome, Frozen will surpass The Avengers' $895.2M to become the highest-grossing Disney film overseas. Successive record-holders were The Lion King, Finding Nemo, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Alice in Wonderland, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Marvel's The Avengers. Excluding Lion King and the Avengers, the rest have earned an average of more than $100M in Japan.
Every year since 2010, Disney has broken its overseas record. Alice (2010) gave way to Pirates 4 (2011) which was out-grossed by The Avengers (2012). In 2013, I was slightly disappointed that Disney wouldn't achieve a new record, but it turns out I was wrong. Of course, by the time Frozen surpasses The Avengers, it will be mid-2014. Therefore, we will have to wait less than a year for it to happen again (when Avengers 2 out-grosses Frozen and hopefully earns more than $1 billion outside North America).
It will soon re-claim its position as the Disney movie that earned the most money in 2014. Cap 2 is at $700M and won't earn more than $720M. Frozen made 1206.3 - 530.4 = $675.3M in 2014 which will soon pass $700M and hopefully $800M too.
[update:] And in order to avoid dissapointing die-hard enthusiasts, of course there is a possibility that Frozen might reach $1 billion overseas, but let's not keep our hopes up at this point.
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 I was going with 102.20 off of 18.53. To get 181.3. I didnt realize he was using a different gross. If the yen goes to 90 by the end of the year he is going to give frozen a $40m bump. Domestic locked on BOM! Lol. Could you imagine if he wrote an incorrect article on that?
He won't. If you notice, he is quite aware how inaccurate his figures are. He always reports records based on national currency, even if that contradicts his gross in dollars. For example, he said that Toy Story 3 is the second-biggest Western animated film in Japan (which is true in yen), although he reported the gross for Toy Story 3 in dollars (which is higher than Finding Nemo).
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Holy shit he is in line w my number. He didnt use today's rate for the whole run, otherwise he would be close to 183m.
We've discussed this. He uses the weekend's rate. 18,392,876,304 yen / 101.49 = $181,228,459
These are exactly the numbers you will find here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=20¤cy=local&p=.htm
and here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=20&p=.htm
So they are not accurate. If you think about it, the rate started at ~101.3 and has been higher ever since until it started falling last week. This means the gross in dollars should be less than $181.2M
My calculations say $179.9M (this is based on the reported yen figures at BOM which has it at 18.39B yen, not 18.53 yen, so there could be a slight deviation from the actual of about 0.14B yen / 0.1015 = $1.38M)
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The yen exchange rate has fallen below what it was on Frozen's opening weekend. For the entire time in between it was higher. This means it will approach HP7-P2 at a faster pace, especially if this drop continues.
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If in its 11th weekend it earns more than $6.9M, which is essentially guaranteed, it will have earned more than what it earned on the 11th weekend (of wide release) in North America ($6.87M)
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=frozen2013.htm
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They have nothing to do with each other, the overall total is from the studio (eventually at least). But each market has its own source.Some older movies don't have any individual market data, but still have an OS total:http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=aladdin.htmhttp://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=goldeneye.htm
Yeah, but in an ideal situation, given that you have figures for all invidual territories, they should add up to that total. But they don't because, well... because Subers.
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Just because Subers calculates the gross in a wrong way doesn't mean Disney does that too. Subers uses the total gross reported by Disney for overall OS gross, not what he would get if he added up all the individual country grosses as he calculated them.
That is why, if you add up the total grosses from each country on this website, you won't get $805.8M.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=frozen2013.htm
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LOL. I think it's supposed to be ￥807.1 million not ￥871 million. They missed one 0. But the total seems correct.
LOL. They probably did miss the "0". However, the total gross is too high. 18.52 / 182.75 *100 = 101.34. No way that is the average exchange rate for Frozen's run. It's too low. It is the current exchange rate and, in other words, THR is as retarded as BOM, they use the latest weekend's exchange rate to calculate the total gross in dollars. I know this may sound disappointing but I think that is what all American BO websites do for individual country grosses. So we can never now what rank a film has in its country unless we know the gross in national currency.
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Here is something bizarre. It requires two big ifs. Right now the dollar is breaking key support, down 1%. 80k bump for the weekend.If the dollar breaks down again and the yen returns to its all time highs by the end of the year to 76 and...If frozen gets to 400mWith the way subers calculates international BO by using the most recent exchange rate for the entire run. It would come to $533m.The Avengers WW would be surpassed on BOM. Lol
Just because Subers calculates the gross in a wrong way doesn't mean Disney does that too. Subers uses the total gross reported by Disney for overall OS gross, not what he would get if he added up all the individual country grosses as he calculated them.
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http://myschoolholid...se-School-15161
These are holidays for Japanese School, 87 Creffield Road, Acton, London, not for Japan!
In Japan:
State/Public Schools
The school year is the same as the fiscal year in Japan, beginning on 1 April and ending on 31 March. There are three terms in the school year with a break in between each term:
Summer holiday - from the end of July until the end of August (usually 30-40 days) Winter holiday - from the end of December to the beginning of January (usually two weeks) Spring holiday - from the end of March to the beginning of April (usually two weeks)
The moral lesson is not to always trust Goolge with the first result it presents.
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I know a film that would out-gross Frozen!
Pixar's Pacific Rim
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no, I meant The Dark Knight, but forgot that they were not released in the same year.
I remember the buzz, when Japan brought strong numbers and it became clear, that Alice will get over 1 Billion and TDK.
oh, I see. But HP7 - P1 is a good comp for Alice since they're both fantasy films based on books and were released in 2010 (although arguably, HP7 - P1 wasn't in 3D)
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Once again, above ¥800M!!! This is unbelievable. Higher than weekend #1, #7 and #9. Should we be expecting another increase this weekend? Well, with Monday at +41% from last Monday, I see no reason why we shoudln't.
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For me the most impressive (and unexpected) number was the OS $806.4m .
That this number will go down is amazing enough.
That is similar to Batman losing to James Bond the year before and Batman again losing to Alice before that.
I think you mean Harry Potter 7 - Part 1 losing to Alice (both were released in 2010).
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I find Frozen's run in Japan very agonising. It is the one and only rare market where films are not at all front-loaded. Films that are very front-loaded in the US (e.g. 2x multiplier) can get a 4x multiplier in Japan and so on. However, this makes everything move very slowly. Yes, Frozen is capable of having decreases smaller than 10% but that just means our expectations rise higher and higher and we have to wait more and more for them to come true. And also, ONE WEEKEND with a very high drop (e.g. -30%) from now on could be enough to destroy all our hopes. In the US, I always think: worst-case scenario is -50% (the times the decrease is greater than 50% are very few). So I adjust my expectations according to that. But for animated films, and especially for Frozen, the mulitpliers have been so high that I've got bored of waiting for milestones to be crossed (and for Deathly Hallows - Part 2 we might have to wait until October). No other film since 2010 (when I started observing the box office) has had such a lengthy and agonising run. It's almost been six months since Frozen was first released and its run has honestly started being painful. The biggest problem is that I can't let it go.
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oh I got a warning. I guess im done speaking with you on this matter. In the not too distant future, When oil runs short, the lights go out, food becomes scarce, and chaos ensues. good luck with your effeminate ways. Survival of the fittest will return. Nature is not wrong and will correct itself.
Even if all this is true, I'm pretty sure there are lewd people out there who are cowards and that's not exactly survival of the fittest.
Regardless, obviously in the current social and cultural context that you live, you won't get anything done if you're lewd, so maybe reconsider your way of interaction with other people. And I'm sure Ray Subers would only respond sensibly if your emails were less aggressive, offensive and if they showed that you would respect him given that he improved the accuracy of his website. Otherwise, he obviously has the power to ignore you.
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'Frozen' will likely move ahead of 'Iron Man 3' on all-time worldwide chart by next weekend: http://t.co/Q6s2Su9Ti5
— Box Office Mojo (@boxofficemojo) May 18, 2014
lol at Ray finally joining the party. Man, he really is a moron.
We should be expecting him to tweet any time now about receiving a threatening email that guaranteed Frozen will surpass $300M in Japan.
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OK, I must admit that each new milestone Frozen apporached (and eventually achieved) was mind-bending, but if it surpasses Harry Potter 7 - Part 2 in worldwide gross, I might actually blow my head off.
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As discussed extremely intensely for the whole of last week, the $164.4M Japan total and the $790.3M total of last week were both underestimated. This is confirmed by this week's update for the OS total: $805,800,000
Iron Man 3 will be gone by next Sunday the latest.
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How can you say that?
I would be disaapointed given the expectations that I had due to Friday's number. But overall, that would be a very impressive opening.
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So will it get 250 million or more around 230 million?
Anything could happen from now on. I will compare Godzilla with Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strander Tides for the following reasons:
a) They had the same CinemaScore (B+)
b ) They both have an opening weekend between $90-95M
c) They opened on the weekend before Memorial Day weekend
d) They have similar post-release competition: Pirates 4 had Hangover 2 (comedy, not 3D), Kung Fu Panda 2 (family film, 3D) and X-Men: First Class (superhero, not 3D). Godzilla has Blended and A Million Ways to Die in the West (two lower-profile comedies, both not 3D), Maleficent (arguably a family film, 3D) and X-Men: Days of Future Past (superhero, 3D)
Pirates 4 had a OW-to-total ratio of 241.1 / 90.15 = 2.67. A similar multiplier will give Godzilla a gross of 93.2 * 2.67 = $248.8M
However, the negative buzz for Godzilla seems to be more abundant, i.e. the ones who didn't like it seem to be more vocal about it on the internet (indicated by the bigger-than-expected Friday-to-Saturday drop). Since this one is driven by fanboys more than Pirates 4 and since fanboys use the internet more than any other demographic group for film reception, I think the multiplier will be slightly lower. Godzilla will also lose more 3D screens in the coming weeks and that will continue due to Edge of Tomorrow and How to Train Your Dragon 2. A mulitplier between 2.4x and 2.6x will give it $223M-$243M and I believe it will end up within this range.
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I must say, although I'd be very impressed if it achieved the biggest opening of the year, I'm actually more satisfied that its OW ended up between Cap 2 and TASM 2. (Below TASM 2 would've been disappointing)
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Spirited Away is full of symbols and metaphors. IMO No-Face represents human emotions and desires, especially from the people around him. He assumes the attributes of others. Because he's around Chihiro so much, he acts as Chihiro's shadow. He was lonely at first, then affected by the people in the bath house, he became greedy and corrupted, hoping to be accepted and noticed. This shows what could have happened to Chihiro if she let greed get to her head. He changed again eventually, affected by what happened to Chihiro in the end. Or at least that's how I remember it. I haven't seen this in a long time.
I agree this is a sensible and impressive interpretation actually. But I think I just can't relate to something so surrealistic. That's why I like Pixar films more. But if other people can relate to it, then that's great cuz it means the movie achieves it's purpose.
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What did you find was unanswered or illogical?
Well, first of all, in SA, No-Face does the most random unexlplained things in the movie. I don't even understand what purpose they serve and I find his whole character quite unnecessary.
Also, in the Wind Rises, maybe this is just because of the subtitles (I'm not sure whether they were accurate or not), sometimes I couldn't understand whether he was in Germany or Japan. The film jumped from one scene to another without always explaining what happened during the time in between. Again this might have been due to the subtitles.
I agree that they are good films but I guess I'm so used to the American way of storytelling that I find them very strange at times.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier ( More than $700M WW, Huge Success!)
in International Box Office
Posted
I'll be happy once it out-grosses Gravity worldwide ($716M). That will be it.