Quigley
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Posts posted by Quigley
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maybe not next weekend. It could drop 30%.
Why would it have such a steep drop?
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I think the minimum expectation for the film's WW total is now $550M (given Friday's results in the US and OS). But it can potentially gross much higher than that.
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2
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How I see Friday's estimates:
The good news: TASM 2 got crushed and fell more than 50%; Cap 2 fell just 30% and will eventually surpass the LEGO Movie to become the highest-grossing film of 2014 in North America (whether it will stay there until Mockingjay - Part 1 arrives is an intriguing question)
The meh news: the latest Godzilla movie, which is proof that Hollywood has run out of good ideas and plot devices, exploded with what could possibly be the biggest single day for the year (beating Cap 2's $36.9M). The B+ CinemaScore indicates it won't have as big a multiplier as expected.
The bad news: Million Dollar Arm flopped with probably less than $13M for the weekend, although what really matters is how well it holds from now on.
http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/box-office-godzilla-crushes-it-90m/
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After one-and-a-half month, Deadline is still using Captain America 2's opening weekend estimates instead of actuals, for comparison with other movies ($96.2M instead of $95.0M)
http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/box-office-preview-godzilla-stomps-into-theaters-tonight/
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For a second consecutive week, ScreenDaily didn't report mid-week OS totals. I hate that they do this stuff without notice. And THR didn't have a weekend report on the Japanese box office. It's annoying when I have to depend exclusively on BOM for an "official" report.
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The situation doesn't look bad, tbh. But neither exceptional. It'll end up with about $300-350M OS imho. With the global releases of X-Men: DOFP next week and Maleficent the week after, I can't see it going any higher, no matter how high its opening weekend is.
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Only 7 from 32 countries? isn't that pretty bad?
What is pretty bad?
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Wow, that's so bad it's actually pretty funny.
Kinda off-topic: Talking about things that are so bad they're funny, look at how desperate BOM is to gain followers on Twitter.
http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/4301-south-korea-box-office-2014/?p=1407763
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Following a discussion about how ridiculous BOM is sometimes, look at this: they say that Godzilla took 1st place at the box office yesterday, but the only thing they provide is a link to the film's release dates in various countries.
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I've seen today at 18:00h and we were only 4 people...
So it is also flopping in Spain? Shame
By seeing her/his user name, I'd say s/he's in Greece or Cyprus.
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First day
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[*]in France: $1.6M
[*]in Australia: est. $1.2M
[*]biggest single day in 2014 in Indonesia
http://www.thewrap.com/godzilla-box-office-openings
Not bad, that lizard is still popular. And it's gonna be huge.
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7
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I was just looking at the foreign grosses for Frozen and noticed the same thing at the end of the run for the Czech Republic, it went down the last 2 weeks there. I guess it should have ended there 2 weeks earlier.
Czech Republic
March 13-16 $10,798 ($1,570,846)
March 20-23 $5,222 ($1,558,730)
March 27-30 $2,860 ($1,558,657)
Regarding this issue of decreases, sometimes it is due to exchange rates but sometimes he posts decreases even in the national currency, so I have no clue what is going on. He or his sources might count backwards sometimes, idk.
e.g.
Toy Story 3 in Japan
Total as of September 18–19, 2010: ¥10,791,686,065
Total as of September 25–26, 2010: ¥10,659,750,457
If any of you have any other explanation besides Subers's utter retardation, please enlighten me.
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Now I understand why some of weekly cums drop some weeks for foreign movies. The currency takes a hit and he just puts that rate in for a total even though it lower than the previous weeks cum. Thats just plain stupid. Why even bother. Its so simple to see tge foriegn totals difference from one week to another and come up w a new total.Avatar JapanMar 21 $1,831,944 -20.3% $164,916,593Mar 28 $1,361,675 -25.7% $160,427,652April 4 $1,018,311 -25.2% $162,664,539Yen..........J...........F...........M..........A..........M2010....91.26....90.28....90.56...93.43....91.79The dollar strengthened at the end of march into the beginning of april and this dumbass puts in 160m when the prior week is 164m. He is beyond retarded. An eight year old forrest gump would know better. He is either related to the owner or getting banged by him. Im gonna blast him again. Everyone write the useless fucktard please. Such blatant disregard is unconcsionable in the statistics world.rsubers@boxofficemojo.com
The thing is, he claims these issues (regarding exchange rates) are minutiae that he doesn't have time to address.
And since it's a private-owned website, fair enough, he can do whatever he and the owners want.
What I'm bothered by is the fact that he claims the website is accurate and comprehensible. Clearly that is far from the truth. And by the way, if you're on Twitter, don't say that to him cuz he'll block you. As previously said, beyond retarded.
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so your admitting that 143m reported 10 days ago is off due to subers exchange expertise.
I have insufficient data to decide whether that was off or not. But according to a post in this thread, the $144.4M total that was estimated here in the forum was $1.1M more than the actual (I can't be bothered to find that post but it's in pages 180-182 I think). So maybe the $143.2M was actually accurate. Last week, though, $164.4M was definitely low. However, moving on to this week, indeed, these numbers are very encouraging. Let's hope it drops less than 10% this weekend (imo very likely).
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Yes, I'm aware of that. That's why Avatar suddenly jumped from $163.9m when it ended its first run in April 2010, to $186.3m when it was re-released in Oct 2010. BOM adjusted Avatar's total gross using Oct 2010 exchange rates. I just think that's not the case with Frozen here. Exchange rates alone wouldn't bump its gross from $164.4m to $167m in a matter of days, would it?
I agree that $164.4M is very low and cannot be explained by the exchange rates. Subers said that he couldn't be bothered to update the estimated overall OS number with the actual (i.e. change $790.3M to $792.something), since it doesn't change its overseas rank anyway (and since it will be updated next weekend). He also said that the difference between $164.4 and $167 is due to exchange rates, but as I said I don't think that is the case. It is, as you said, an estimate-actual problem and Disney hasn't provided an actual.
However, the Japan page at BOM (updated on Wednesdays), only provides the actual in yen (17.00 billion yen, which is lower than the reported 17.08 billion yen that is mentioned in this forum). The number in dollars ($166.95M) is not an accurate actual, though, as I've already explained.
This raises the question of which "actual" number is the most accurate. 17.00 billion yen or 17.08 billion yen?
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I think the number in foreign box office page is an estimate, judging by the number of zeroes in it ($164,400,000), and by the fact that It was updated on Sunday. The one in the Japan page comes out on Wednesday, and is the actual number. But they didn't update the estimate, and the overall OS number. So I don't think the different numbers were caused by exchange rates, but simply an estimate-actual problem.
Btw, I think Frozen have outgrossed HP2 and Bayside Shakedown 2 by now, and moved to #6 all time.
Ray Subers implicitly admitted on Twitter that he uses the exchange rate of the latest weekend to convert the movie's entire gross into dollars (which was obvious anyway). For example, let's say that Frozen makes 18 billion yen by Sunday. This, I hope you realise, means that if the ER suddenly falls to 80 yen to 1 dollar, Frozen will have made 18 billion yen / 0.08 = $225M dollars (according to BOM). There couldn't be a more inaccurate method to calculate the total gross in dollars, especially if there is a variable ER.
[update:] He also said that Disney probably uses each individual week's exchange rate. That would yield a number similar to what I calculated in the above table, which means that the number Disney reported on Sunday ($164.4M) was an underestimate.
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I constructed this table using separate exchange rates (ER) for weekeend and weekdays. Weekend ER comes from BOM's weekend chart. Weekday ER is a weighted average of the daily ER (for the 5 weekdays). Weighting is approximately based on the daily gross (e.g. if Wednesday earned twice as much as Tuesday, the ER for Wednesday counted twice as much as the Tuesday ER in the weighting calculation). The daily ER were taken from: http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/
The raw grosses (i.e. the ones in yen) were taken from BOM weekend charts.
This is nearly as accurate as possible, based on the data on this thread for daily grosses.
Gross is about $166.17M by May 11. Let's see to what extent Screen Daily's updated total supports this estimation.
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Can I upload a picture? How do I do that?
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It looks like the $ amount is changing every time we get official updates.
Here's the Golden Week list up to day 54 that was posted a week ago:
Day 46-54
Day Adm Toho Toho x Adm Total Gross
46 mon 26.157 64,80 124.246 $1.694.974
47 tue 85.000 64,80 403.750 $5.508.000
48 wed 41.542 64,80 197.325 $2.691.922
49 thr 49.256 64,80 233.966 $3.191.789
50 fri 24.957 64,80 118.546 $1.617.214
51 sat 82.492 61,90 391.837 $5.106.255
52 sun 96.392 61,90 457.862 $5.966.665
53 mon 117.374 58,65 559.027 $6.883.985
54 tue 92.272 61,54 439.884 $5.678.603
Today's update:
Day Adm Toho Toho x Adm Total Gross
46 mon 26.157 59,83 124.246 $1.564.973
47 tue 85.000 59,83 403.750 $5.085.550
48 wed 41.542 59,83 197.325 $2.485.458
49 thr 49.256 59,83 233.966 $2.946.986
50 fri 24.957 59,83 118.546 $1.493.177
51 sat 82.492 61,70 391.837 $5.089.756
52 sun 96.392 61,70 457.862 $5.947.386
53 mon 117.374 59,92 559.027 $7.033.050
54 tue 92.272 59,92 439.884 $5.528.938
The admission totals are the same, but the $ totals are all lower, except day 53 for some reason, which is higher. The difference is a bit more than -$1.1m.
What is the source for these official updates?
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164 is wrong. The exchange rate has been 102.2 most of the time. Not a great deal of fluctuation. +/- .5%pecan sandy?
An exchange rate of 102.2 would give ¥14.63B / 0.1022 = $143.15M as of Sunday, May 3, so the fluctuation does actually matter...
And it is actually more than 0.5%, because such a fluctuation could only take the gross of 143.15 up to 143.15 * 1.005 = 143.87M, not 144.4M
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I don't think there's any reason to doubt Disney's accounting. It's their money, after all, and when all is said and done, it's their number that is going to be taken as official.
Also, as far as international numbers go, I don't think BOM is making its own estimates or calculations based on exchange rates. They're just going by what the sources they have report.
But if you check the weekly charts that they post on "International", the total grosses are usually different than the ones reported on Sunday. Above each weekend chart there is an exchange rate and each week, they divide the total gross by that weekend's exchange rate.
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Actually, the total gross figures in dollars at BOM are probably not accurate, so we shoudld stick with the reported $164.4M total which Disney calculated using each week's individual exchange rates.
Challenge: Does someone have the time and patience to actually calculate the total gross in dollars, by converting each week's (or even each day's) gross based on the weekly/daily exchange rates? (just to check if that's the case for the reported gross)
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In this case, 166.95 - 143.2 = 23.75M
So,
Damienroc........24.601m
Murgatroyd.......23.10Murgatroyd won.
JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Quigley
I liked SA when I watched it but there are still parts of it that don't make sense to me. I guess this is just because of cultural differences, but I find that some parts of the plot in Miyazaki films are unexplained. The chain of events is sometimes illogical and questions remain unanswered. I don't know if this is just because of the symbolic nature of his films, but I find it difficult to fully understand the plot. (Note: I've seen SA, HMC, Arrietty, TWR and Ponyo. The above obviously don't apply to the same extent to all films)