Eric is Quiet
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Posts posted by Eric is Quiet
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Quorum Updates
Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-18: 60.56% Awareness, 59.12% Interest
The Watchers T-18: 31.07% Awareness, 44.15% Interest
It Ends with Us T-81: 15.47% Awareness, 38.28% Interest
Blink Twice T-95: 10.69% Awareness, 35.19% Interest
Never Let Go T-130: 18.2% Awareness, 42.48% Interest
Wicked T-191: 37.01% Awareness, 45.09% Interest
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-4: 43.46% Awareness, 43.51% Interest
Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M
Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M
Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M
Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M
The Garfield Movie T-4: 56.39% Awareness, 49.62% Interest
Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M
Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M
Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M
Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M
Sight T-4: 14.96% Awareness, 33.53% Interest
Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M
Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M
Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-39: 19.73% Awareness, 36.57% Interest
T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M
Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 33% chance of 10M
Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M
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We're really going to listen to a bunch of blue checks over a movie that still opened to relatively fine numbers? Sure. Okay. Yeah.
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Just now, SpiderByte said:
Surprised Twisters is so high
Cyclones go whoosh
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1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:
Oh, and this is actually legit solid stuff disregarding tracking. Like this is what I expected and something Paramount should be happy with. It's also now the second-biggest opening for a totally original movie, only behind Nope.
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9 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
alright put your bets in Alien Romulus above or below IF OW
Lower, but ~32M still ain't bad
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11 minutes ago, Speedorito said:
Yay for Apes. Looks like the B Cinemascore isn’t manifesting.
It's following a similar run so far as Dial of Destiny where it has okay legs despite tepid WOM and a bad Cinemascore, in large part thanks to being part of an older-skewing legacy franchise. At the very least, we should get another sequel, which I'm happy for.
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Moderation
Not the Marvel thread.
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10 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:
That a good number for Strangers? I feel it may not stick around for very long.
Could be worse!
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Just now, Cmasterclay said:
Pretty good for IF honestly, I pegged it for low 20s a month ago. Like The Fall Guy, I'm not gonna go sky is falling on a movie I had much lower expectations than the rest of the board. When the Watchers opens to 12m and Bikeriders does 5m and Horizon does 14m, then I'll have my meltdown.
So…you’re saying I gotta clean up your mess in a month? Because that’s where I am for all those movies lol 😂
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IF is a weird one, because this is opening on the higher end of non-NTCs despite mediocre reviews and should gross a fine enough total in the end. But when studio tracking had it at 40M+, it’s hard to really commend it as a success. I dunno how to respond if I’m being honest.
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23 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
Strong hold for Apes. Expected high 5s to 6 for Friday
25m+ weekend.
Let's go 160M+ .
And you doubted me 🤪
Happy to see this going for about 2.75x or so. Maybe even do something like Dial of Destiny’s 2.9x
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21 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
Would get to 26.2 if it follows Guardians 3’s third weekend.
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2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
I think it'll end at around 198M-199M, which would be a bummer. WB should do a rerelease before pulling it out from theaters.
I actually want it to stay around here. Because in a couple weeks, we will have a scenario where Godzilla X Kong is the biggest Monsterverse movie WW, Kong Skull Island is the biggest OS, and Godzilla 2014 is the biggest DOM. Three separate movies have their own franchise records. That has to be a first I am assuming
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Hoping Apes can still get closer to that 25M high end, though it's still holding fine. Better than the 60%+ people speculated on from its weak Wednesday.
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8 hours ago, filmlover said:
I'll always remember him best as Principal Prickly on the Disney cartoon Recess. May he rest in peace.
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24 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:
And, wow, OMG, Focus Features’ Back to Black isn’t finding any kind of audience at a $3M opening after a $1.25M Friday in 2,010 locations. It’s not like the audiences stateside didn’t like it: It’s getting a B+ CinemaScore and 80% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. This movie, which British critics eviscerated is not getting a fair shake, with bad word of mouth crossing the Atlantic. Back to Black was bullied on social media for myriad reasons: many didn’t like Marisa Abela’s performance and look early on (sorry, shoot me, but she’s sublime in the movie), and that 13 years was too soon to make a biopic about the tragic performer. Also, some have sniped that the whole IP isn’t cross-generational enough ala Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody to make a dent stateside and that the movie is too British for yanks. UK music critics have taken umbrage with some of the creative licenses that the biopic has pulled off. Pity. It’s a really good movie and the scene where Winehouse meets Jack O’Connell’s Blake for the first time is wonderfully romantic.
lol at Deadline Anthony getting all mad at people not seeing this random movie he liked. This man is so weird.
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27 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:
I didn't see it but Babes was this Monday's secret/mystery movie for AMC/Regal/Cinemark. I've heard the humor is very Ilana Glazer so enjoyment of it depends on how much a person generally likes her style.
Never watched Broad City, but whenever that show is brought up, I think of this one cutaway gag from Family Guy where Stewie goes to jail for saying he didn’t like the show. Not saying I think Broad City looks bad, but that’s just a gag that stuck with me.
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Just now, LonePirate said:
I know this is a long shot given the members of this forum; but is anyone going to see Babes this weekend? It’s not playing in my area until next week and I would love to hear a report from someone other than the clout chasers at SXSW who saw it. Hopefully it is as funny as those early reports have said.
My mom texted me she had to see it, so I guess we will see it next week. I never even heard of it until she told me about it. I assumed she was talking about the pig movie.
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1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:
Wait I just realized something.
the purple character in IF is named Blue.
why did they name the purple character Blue.
I’m sure that’s an oh so hilarious running gag they do all throughout the movie.
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Re: Fandango polls
Yes, they are plagued with recency bias and their exact rankings don't typically correlate with reality. And yeah, for specific stuff like horror or action or animation or whatever, I don't pay that any mind (though in the case of IMAX movies, yeah Twisters or Alien won't make as much as Despicable Me 4 or Inside Out 2, but not many are going to seek out IMAX specifically for those, so...)
But generally speaking, their top 10s have served as a good rule of thumb and the majority of their films do reach their rankings. If you look at the summer countdowns specifically...
Fandango Summer Top 15 2023
1. Across the Spider-Verse
2. M:I Dead Reckoning Part 1
3. The Flash
4. Transformers Rise of the Beasts
5. The Little Mermaid
6. Fast X
7. Barbie
8. Oppenheimer
9. Haunted Mansion
10. TMNT Mutant Mayhem
11. Indiana Jones 5
12. Insidious 5
13. The Meg 2
14. Asteroid City
15. Gran Turismo
Actual Summer Top 15 2023
1. Barbie
2. Across the Spider-Verse
3. The Little Mermaid
4. Oppenheimer
5. Sound of Freedom
6. Indiana Jones 5
7. M:I Dead Reckoning Part 1
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
9. Elemental
10. Fast X
11. The Flash
12. TMNT Mutant Mayhem
13. Insidious 5
14. Meg 2
15. Haunted Mansion
13/15 match (using the top 10, 7/10, was done after Guardians 3 released)
Fandango Summer Top 10 2022
1. Doctor Strange 2
2. Thor: Love and Thunder
3. Jurassic World: Dominion
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
6. Lightyear
7. Elvis
8. Nope
9. Bullet Train
10. Downton Abbey: A New Era
Actual Summer Top 10 2022
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Doctor Strange 2
3. Jurassic World: Dominion
4. Minions: The Rise of Gru
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. Elvis
7. Nope
8. Lightyear
9. Bullet Train
10. DC League of Super-Pets
9/10 match
2019 Fandango Summer Top 10
1. Spider-Man: Far From Home
2. Rocketman
3. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
4. Dark Phoenix
5. The Lion King
6. Toy Story 4
7. Men in Black: International
8. Hobbs and Shaw
9. Aladdin
10. The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019 Actual Summer Top 10
1. The Lion King
2. Toy Story 4
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home
4. Aladdin
5. Hobbs and Shaw
6. Secret Life of Pets 2
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
9. Rocketman
10. Good Boys
8/10 match (done after Endgame/Detective Pikachu released)
Fandango Summer 2018
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Deadpool 2
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Incredibles 2
6. Ocean’s 8
7. Mamma Mia! 2
8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
9. Sicario 2
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Actual Summer 2018
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Incredibles 2
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. Deadpool 2
5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story
8. Crazy Rich Asians
9. Hotel Transylvania 3
10. The Meg
7/10 match
Like yeah, the metrics have it that for 70% of the time, at least for the summer, these Fandango polls showcase a good barometer on what's connecting, and you can easily use context clues to realize that Asteroid City or Downton Abbey 2 or Sicario 2 will probably get beaten out by a July/August release that doesn't have much advertising or a kids animated movie that won't be on most Fandango users' radar. I think there's value in them IMO