Eric is Quiet
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Posts posted by Eric is Quiet
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Anyways...
4 > 2 > 3 > 1
Ready for part 5
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1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:
Honestly I’m not on board Superman. He’s a character that’s kinda always struggled to garner enough attention with audiences, and with this having to follow the DCEU, I think it’s got a bit of a hill to climb.I'm very much "assume the worst" for all superhero movies box office-wise these days, until proven otherwise (Deadpool and Joker should be fine, still kinda wait and see with Venom). And honestly, even Fantastic Four and Superman are looking pretty dicey IMO. Feel like next year could be like 2023 all over again for the genre.
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5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
Why do I feel like this is very personal? No one has claimed he is perfect. Now that we are on this, I wish the mods who are still here [like how many are still functioning?] would be perfect by noticing that there are a dozen of 2024 and 2025 movie threads that are still in the On the Lot section and like no one has really bothered to put them in the main section. I guess this is fair criticism.
1 minute ago, TMP said:Unless you’re an actual custodian of box office numbers, I don’t see why any of this matters. The tracking errors between Charlie’s numbers and the actuals are never even that big, and calling it a “consistent pattern” like you’re his boss during a performance review is really creepy - sorry. I know this place has always had a toxicity problem, but when mods start picking fights with random users it sounds like a pretty good point to take a break
It’s…not personal? And I’m not picking a fight? I’m just arguing with Legion about something. And it hasn’t gotten hostile IMO. Spirited? Sure. But we’re just arguing over different viewpoints, which is what forums are all about. Nobody is insulting one another, so things are fine.
But you know? It’s clear neither party will agree, so I’ll end it here. I have my feelings, others have their own. It’s all good.
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1 minute ago, Legion Again said:
No, it’s absolutely not a consistent pattern. You just decided to list one half without paying attention to all the ones recently where it came in over his number
there is nothing to “fix” here except your biased impression 🤷♂️
I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.
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Just now, AniNate said:
I mostly wish he would drop the plus. No one will care if the number is a little off but adding a + sets up a high expectation, and if it's - even by a little bit the board freaks out
That's also a big problem. Like I didn't bring it up, but he said IF was going to have "1.8M+ previews". That implies 1.8M is the minimum it can do. When it goes to 1.75M...yeah, I got a problem with that. Because you just said it did lower than even what is posted as the "low end". I'm sure that's not Charlie's intentions, but intentions don't equal actions.
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17 minutes ago, Legion Again said:
No idea how this myth of “ @charlie Jatinder overestimates previews” got started but if you just look at the nums it is pretty clearly not true. Sometimes bit more sometimes bit less, pretty close to 50/50 ratio in direction and small in magnitude, exactly what you’d want out of highest possible quality est
Two weeks ago, Charlie's projections were 2.5M for Garfield and 4M for Furiosa. It went 1.9M and. 3.5M. Big drops. Charlie said 7M for Kingdom of the Apes, then it went lower at 6.6M. Challengers he had at 2.5M, then the actual was 1.9M. Civil War he had at 3.5M previews, and it was 2.9M.
Like...yeah. He does overestimate previews. And in some cases, like Furiosa or Challengers, that's a pretty significant amount. Is it every single time? Of course not. But this has been a pretty consistent pattern of Charlie's. And I think it's fair to call it out when it happens this many times in the span of a few weeks. I'm clearly outnumbered in people thinking it should still be posted. But Charlie needs to figure out how to fix up his projections when he tweets this stuff out. Because this information isn't helpful. If anything, it makes things way worse for all parties.
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1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:
With 5.88m, BB4. would need 8.5x IM to hit 50m. That is a very high IM for a live action movie, let alone a R-rated summer flick. Apes, show a better late surge than BB in presale, only managed to get 8.8x IM with MD boost. I can't say I am confident with 50m OW. I haven't seen the gender breakdown but it is safe to say lower female audience turnout is again to "blame" for the drop from BB3. BB3 actually had a good female % for action flick at 44%, a % I doubt BB4 can come close to.
https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-bad-boys-ride-or-die-1235961796/
QuoteDemos, which change throughout the weekend, were 36% Black, 29% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Caucasian, 10% Asian, and 4% other. Men over 25 were dominant at 40% followed by women over 25 at 38%.
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The Watchers hit 1M. Which like...it could be worse? I guess?
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2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
Charlie is allowed to see another day. Thank god
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4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
Let's say Focus or Searchlight picked up Hit Man and released it in theaters. What do you think it would have made? I think it could have potentially made 30M DOM.
Probably about half of that. Maybe 20M if it got lucky.
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Quorum Updates
Twisters T-43: 48.83% Awareness, 53.83% Interest
They Listen T-85: 9.83% Awareness, 35.08% Interest
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-155: 8.6% Awareness, 27.85% Interest
Moana 2 T-174: 44.58% Awareness, 50.45% Interest
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 T-197: 41.42% Awareness, 44% Interest
Bad Boys for Life T-1: 67.03% Awareness, 58.38% Interest
Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M
Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M
Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M
Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M
The Watchers T-1: 31.97% Awareness, 45.95% Interest
Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 47% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M
Inside Out 2 T-8: 57.54% Awareness, 51.83% Interest
Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M
Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M
Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M
Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 90M, 29% chance of 100M
Cuckoo T-57: 11.07% Awareness, 37.24% Interest
T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M
T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 40% chance of 10M
Borderlands T-64: 28.31% Awareness, 42.84% Interest
T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M
Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M
T-60 Interest: 62% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M
Medium Interest: 68% chance of 10M, 36% chance of 20M
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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Bad Boys MiniTC2
Thursday - 7480/50977 (181 showings) $98K
Normally this would be $4.75-5M but it will likely underindex here. Using the previous film ratio gives $5.35M. ~$5.75M including early shows seems good.
I mean you say that, but you've been overpredicting preview numbers like crazy over the past couple weeks. Just saying...
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Guys, M37 literally didn't say anything. Y'all are just projecting your thoughts and saying what he's feeling, acting like you know what he is feeling is underperforming. Let the man breathe for a second
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Was vibing with a lot of the tension and suspense, even if it's clearly no M. Night. But then the third act comes in and...yeah, things get really clunky by the end. I can say I still liked it, but this was some serious wasted potential.
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Are those dogs fresh?
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3 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:
Are the DM4 numbers 3-day or 5-day?
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I already saw this in theaters last year, but I'm more than happy to do it again.
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lmao at Garfield getting Elemental legs out of the blue. Obviously it won't go as high as that movie, but this really might get to 100M on the basis that there is just nothing for kids to watch until Inside Out 2.
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On 1/26/2024 at 11:48 AM, Eric Burnett said:
Does it...have to be Legos?
Still relevant. This whole thing is just...so weird.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-sony-edition/
I'm assuming Mufasa is a typo and they mean Moana, since Mufasa wasn't on the charts last week, but Moana was.