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Eric is Quiet

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    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I will say there is validity in movies being “too expensive”, but not because of monetary reasons. Rather, streaming made movie tickets way less valuable. Pre-COVID, you had about three services, unless you wanna be that guy and include CBS All Access. Now, we have a whopping 8 major SVOD services

    with large subscriber pools and there a lot of money spent to make sure these services expand their library size. In original stuff and old legacy stuff. When you have the option of 8 huge libraries in your house that costs the same, sometimes less than a movie ticket…yeah, that does feel worthless all of a sudden, barring the occasional nostalgic toy commercial.

     

    It’s not even really the fault of exhibitors. I don’t know how you can compete with something that offers 1,000+ movies and TV shows for $15. And even if Paramount or Peacock bite the dust, there’s still 6 services with huge libraries and lineups to get for cheap. And that isn’t even getting into Tubi or Roku Channel or Pluto, which offer the same value for free.

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    It was late for me last night so didn't say anything. 


    Film Projections Reported Change Remarks
    Wonka $3.50 $3.50 0.00%  
    Migration $1.20 $1.50 -20.00%  
    Aquaman 2 $4.00 $4.50 -11.11%  
    Mean Girls $3.50 $3.25 7.69%  
    Beekeeper $2.50 $2.40 4.17%  
    Argylle $1.75 $1.70 2.94%  
    Dune 2 $11.00 $12.00 -8.33% Actuals $11.1M
    Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.50 $3.80 -7.89%  
    Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $4.50 $4.70 -4.26%  
    Godzilla x Kong $9.50 $10.00 -5.00% Actuals $9.5M
    Monkey Man $1.50 $1.40 7.14%  
    Civil War $3.50 $2.90 20.69% This was a miss. Came way under cities than I expected.
    Challengers $2.50 $1.90 31.58% Another miss. Same reason.
    The Fall Guy $3.00 $3.10 -3.23%  
    Apes $7.00 $6.60 6.06%  
    IF $1.80 $1.75 2.86% I did use $1.8M+ here as I was expecting some over-indexing in Canada which didn't happen. Alternatively, I should have gone with $1.75M+, dunno why I wrote $1.8M.
    Garfield $2.50 $2.45 2.04%  
    Furiosa $4.00 $3.50 14.29% Another miss, same reason as above, though I haven't checked actuals for it.
    Bad Boys $5.75 $5.88 -2.21%  

     

     

     

     

    Alright. I'm sorry. I'm sorry I doubted you. I'm sorry that I didn't check earlier. I thought you were often wrong, but I wasn't. Can we please move on?

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

    Minecraft definitely. What an utterly pointless movie. My nephew is a massive Minecraft fan and even he's like "Why are they doing a movie?"

    I'm just baffled why it's live-action. Like...do the fans want something that will literally look nothing like the games? Like have it animated, make it look like a high-res version of the game, get Kevin Hart to voice one of the Creepers, and you're golden.

    • Like 1

    Films that could've done better with other release date.

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    On 5/28/2024 at 3:47 PM, cannastop said:

    I dunno what would have been better, but Detective Pikachu's 3 week distance from Avengers Endgame was apparently not enough.

    Detective Pikachu honestly came out in the worst summer possible. No matter where you put it, it was gonna get crushed by Endgame, by Toy Story, by Spider-Man, by Lion King. Any other summer prior, it could have comfortably got to around Lego Movie numbers IMO

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-bad-boys-ride-or-die-1235961796/

     

    Quote

    FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Exhibitors and distribution execs, even non-Sony ones, are breathing a sigh of relief as it looks like the Will Smith and Martin Lawrence fourthquel Bad Boys: Ride or Die is heading to $50M this weekend at 3,885 theaters. This is after a $20M-$21M Friday which includes last night’s previews of $5.9M. Last night’s evening shows were solid, and they held up against the first night of NBA finals. Bad Boys 4 has all the octane from PLFs and Imax screens. Very good news after this summer has seen such notable event movies like Fall Guy and Furiosa underperforming.

     

    Sony can further crow about their hold on the No. 2 spot this weekend with Garfield The Movie which is seeing a third frame of $9M-$10M, -32% for a running total of $68.6M on the high end by Sunday at 3,959.

     

    Third belongs to Paramount’s family movie IF with a fourth weekend of $7.1M at 3,582 theaters, -32%, after $2M Friday and a running total of $92.6M by Sunday. That will be 1% ahead of Ryan Reynolds’ Free Guy at the same point in time which ended its US/Canada run at $121.6M.

     

    Crashing in fourth place is New Line‘s Ishana Shyamalan directed thriller, The Watchers, with $3M today, including $1M previews, for what’s looking like a $6M-$7M start at 3,351 theaters. M. Night Shyamalan, who produced his daughter’s movies, also self finances them and then sells them to the studio. In the wake of working with Universal, Warner Bros. attracted him over to their lot. I’m told that the studio shelled out $30M before P&A for The Watchers alone. This movie is not a Lionsgate genre thrifty price-profit special.

     

    And by the end of this weekend, 20th Century Studios/Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes from filmmaker Wes Ball can beat its chest for surpassing the domestic gross of the previous 2017 movie from Matt Reeves, War for the Planet of the Apes ($146.88M) with $150M. Currently the highest grossing movie of the summer will see a fifth weekend of $5.75M, -36%.

     

    • Like 4

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:


    Honestly I’m not on board Superman. He’s a character that’s kinda always struggled to garner enough attention with audiences, and with this having to follow the DCEU, I think it’s got a bit of a hill to climb.

    I'm very much "assume the worst" for all superhero movies box office-wise these days, until proven otherwise (Deadpool and Joker should be fine, still kinda wait and see with Venom). And honestly, even Fantastic Four and Superman are looking pretty dicey IMO. Feel like next year could be like 2023 all over again for the genre.

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

     

    Why do I feel like this is very personal? No one has claimed he is perfect. Now that we are on this, I wish the mods who are still here [like how many are still functioning?] would be perfect by noticing that there are a dozen of 2024 and 2025 movie threads that are still in the On the Lot section and like no one has really bothered to put them in the main section. I guess this is fair criticism.

     

    1 minute ago, TMP said:

    Unless you’re an actual custodian of box office numbers, I don’t see why any of this matters. The tracking errors between Charlie’s numbers and the actuals are never even that big, and calling it a “consistent pattern” like you’re his boss during a performance review is really creepy - sorry. I know this place has always had a toxicity problem, but when mods start picking fights with random users it sounds like a pretty good point to take a break

    It’s…not personal? And I’m not picking a fight? I’m just arguing with Legion about something. And it hasn’t gotten hostile IMO. Spirited? Sure. But we’re just arguing over different viewpoints, which is what forums are all about. Nobody is insulting one another, so things are fine.

     

    But you know? It’s clear neither party will agree, so I’ll end it here. I have my feelings, others have their own. It’s all good.

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Legion Again said:

    No, it’s absolutely not a consistent pattern. You just decided to list one half without paying attention to all the ones recently where it came in over his number  

     

    there is nothing to “fix” here except your biased impression 🤷‍♂️ 

    I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.

    • Disbelief 1
    • Knock It Off 1

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, AniNate said:

    I mostly wish he would drop the plus. No one will care if the number is a little off but adding a + sets up a high expectation, and if it's - even by a little bit the board freaks out

    That's also a big problem. Like I didn't bring it up, but he said IF was going to have "1.8M+ previews". That implies 1.8M is the minimum it can do. When it goes to 1.75M...yeah, I got a problem with that. Because you just said it did lower than even what is posted as the "low end". I'm sure that's not Charlie's intentions, but intentions don't equal actions.

    • Haha 1
    • Disbelief 1

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

    No idea how this myth of “ @charlie Jatinder overestimates previews” got started but if you just look at the nums it is pretty clearly not true. Sometimes bit more sometimes bit less, pretty close to 50/50 ratio in direction and small in magnitude, exactly what you’d want out of highest possible quality est

    Two weeks ago, Charlie's projections were 2.5M for Garfield and 4M for Furiosa. It went 1.9M and. 3.5M. Big drops. Charlie said 7M for Kingdom of the Apes, then it went lower at 6.6M. Challengers he had at 2.5M, then the actual was 1.9M. Civil War he had at 3.5M previews, and it was 2.9M.

     

    Like...yeah. He does overestimate previews. And in some cases, like Furiosa or Challengers, that's a pretty significant amount. Is it every single time? Of course not. But this has been a pretty consistent pattern of Charlie's. And I think it's fair to call it out when it happens this many times in the span of a few weeks. I'm clearly outnumbered in people thinking it should still be posted. But Charlie needs to figure out how to fix up his projections when he tweets this stuff out. Because this information isn't helpful. If anything, it makes things way worse for all parties.

    • Like 3
    • Disbelief 3
    • Knock It Off 6

    Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

    With 5.88m, BB4. would need 8.5x IM to hit 50m. That is a very high IM for a live action movie, let alone a R-rated summer flick. Apes, show a better late surge than BB in presale, only managed to get 8.8x IM with MD boost. I can't say I am confident with 50m OW. I haven't seen the gender breakdown but it is safe to say lower female audience turnout is again to "blame" for the drop from BB3. BB3 actually had a good female % for action flick at 44%, a % I doubt BB4 can come close to. 

    https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-bad-boys-ride-or-die-1235961796/

     

    Quote

    Demos, which change throughout the weekend, were 36% Black, 29% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Caucasian, 10% Asian, and 4% other. Men over 25 were dominant at 40% followed by women over 25 at 38%.

     

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Quorum Updates

    Twisters T-43: 48.83% Awareness, 53.83% Interest

    They Listen T-85: 9.83% Awareness, 35.08% Interest

    The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-155: 8.6% Awareness, 27.85% Interest

    Moana 2 T-174: 44.58% Awareness, 50.45% Interest

    Sonic the Hedgehog 3 T-197: 41.42% Awareness, 44% Interest

     

    Bad Boys for Life T-1: 67.03% Awareness, 58.38% Interest

    Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

    Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

    Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M

    Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M

     

    The Watchers T-1: 31.97% Awareness, 45.95% Interest

    Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

    Horror Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

    Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M

    Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

     

    Inside Out 2 T-8: 57.54% Awareness, 51.83% Interest

    Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

    Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

    Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

    Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 90M, 29% chance of 100M

     

    Cuckoo T-57: 11.07% Awareness, 37.24% Interest

    T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

    Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M

    T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

    Horror Interest: 40% chance of 10M

     

    Borderlands T-64: 28.31% Awareness, 42.84% Interest

    T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

    Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M

    T-60 Interest: 62% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

    Medium Interest: 68% chance of 10M, 36% chance of 20M

    • Like 2
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