Eric Prime

Should also mention these Monday midnights seem incredibly rare. I don't know what it's like for everyone else, but as of right now, there's only one theater near me doing these Monday midnights. Of course it's not finalized, but it's somewhat telling, especially since stuff like Toy Story and Annabelle already have Thurs/Tue previews up in a good majority of theaters around me.

I believe that 850K comes from Monday previews that were Canada exclusive. I don't know why it was just Canada, I guess Sony wanted to give them a bone? The 7.5M is just midnight previews alone.

I'd say around 60% chance of that happening, maybe even higher. I say this largely because of @Porthos than my own data. He's generally had good luck when it comes to predicting previews. His data indicates a preview # somewhere around 14-16 atm. I'm predicting somewhere around 10.5x as an IM, which would give about 147M-168M. So it's still very much possible to hit 150M+, but I don't see it reaching, say BatB. Speaking as somebody from the "Pixar generation", I can tell you people around my age were dying to see an Incredibles 2, and were beyond ecstatic to know it was coming out. That older audience and that frenzy and demand isn't really as strong as it is for Toy Story, at least when it comes to presales and buying tickets at a certain time. But of course, even if it hits 150M in the end, I doubt Disney is crying over it being #NotARecord

Mickey's Law in full effect ladies and gentlemen.

LMAO this dude wants to die

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Men in Black 226 211 320 255 255 256 532 11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days Toy Story 4 980 707 929 746 706 617 973 18 days 17 days 16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days Annabelle 3 13 29 48 48 31 48 22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days 17 days Spider-Man FFH 582 544 692 577 493 344 509 29 days 28 days 27 days 26 days 25 days 24 days 23 days MIB Day 11-5 41% of Dark Phoenix (13.5M) 28% of Shazam! (15M) 32% of Dragon 3 (17.8M) 43% of Dumbo (19.6M) 61% of Pets 2 (28.9M) Day 16-5 48% of Dark Phoenix (15.9M) 35% of Shazam! (18.8M) 36% of Dragon 3 (20M) 48% of Dumbo (22M) 79% of Pets 2 (37.5M) Is it foolish to say that I don't trust these comps and am optimistic about this movie's actual chances? Even with the lack of buzz or marketing, I just feel like this can't open that low...can it? Toy Story Day 18-12 185% of Dumbo (85.2M) 301% of Lego 2 (101.8M) 194% of Dragon 3 (106.6M) 120% of Aladdin (109.8M 3-Day, 140.1M 4-Day) 60% of Incredibles 2 (110.5M) 278% of Shazam (148.8M) Day 24-12 237% of Shazam! (126.7M) 290% of Dragon 3 (159.8M) 107% of Incredibles 2 (195.1M) So as of right now, I'm not in the "over I2 OW" hype train just yet, let alone "over 200M OW". The movie has slowed down considerably this week. But of course, the dream's not completely dead. There's still a few more days to go, and even if it does break the record, I don't think there's as much of a rush to buy tickets days in advance compared to something like Incredibles, both due to demand, and slightly different audience demographics. And of course, this should still do very well either way, if @Porthos and his data is anything to go by (though more of a #NotARecord kind of well). This week and next week will probably be the big deciding factors here over whether any records would be shattered. Annabelle Day 22-17 17% of Us (11.8M) This is one that I decided to just throw in for fun. Partly because it could be used in the future for stuff like It: Chapter Two or Conjuring 3, and also partly because I only have three other movies to look at at this time, so might as well exercise my brain a bit by adding one more movie. And of course, I don't think we need to take this too seriously at the moment, especially because I don't think there's been an official "tickets on sale" announcement yet. Far From Home Day 29-23 37% of Captain Marvel (57.3M) Day 36-23 30% of Captain Marvel (46.3M) So this seems bad, but somebody mentioned that marketing was not in full force like Captain Marvel was at the same point in time, largely due to MIB occupying all of Sony's attention. So I am optimistic things will turn around fairly quickly and there will be a ticket increase. Then again, 2019 seems to be following Mickey's Law, where anything that can go wrong for all non-Disney studios will go wrong, so maybe this applies to a Disney movie under Sony's clothing?

LOL

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-bombs-at-the-box-office-reasons-why-1202629749/

Disney are masters when it comes to creative accounting, double features, fudging, etc. I'm not even talking about Wrinkle in Time. Last year, Solo dropped around 37% on Incredibles 2 weekend, despite losing 1,000 theaters, and Incredibles opening to 182.7M. Granted it was also Father's Day weekend, but it's still a pretty solid drop considering all of the mentioned factors. Pirates 5 dropped 16% on Cars 3 weekend. Again, Father's Day, but considering last weekend saw a 51% drop, there was probably a bit of "creative accounting" in play. Alice Through the Looking Glass lost over 1,000 theaters, and saw two prior 50% drops before Finding Dory weekend. Yet it dropped only 24%, and that includes a Sunday drop of about 43%, so this didn't get any Father's Day bump. If anything, Toy Story coming out would only benefit Aladdin IMHO But even then, if it follows Maleficent for the rest of its run, which it is following relatively closely to, that would indicate a 344.1M gross. I doubt that will happen, but if it follows, say, Pirates 5 for the rest of its run, that would be about 295.2M, which granted isn't 300, but still pretty close to it. It also has better WOM than Pirates, so it's really not as impossible as you make it out to be.

I think it was airing on FX a couple days ago to promote the new movie.

Why did it increase? Did it have double features with Pets 2?

Well, kind of. I'm mainly saying that as a property, Pets had zero cultural relevance after a few months. People saw it and liked it okay when it came out, but once 2017 rolled around, I never saw anyone talk about it, watch it, buy merch, etc. It doesn't help that the movie looked to be more of the same, but generally speaking, I feel like people just kind of forgot about the first Pets outside of the cute novelty and didn't have much of a reason to see it again. SLOP1 is probably the most forgotten and least culturally relevant 300M grosser at the moment. Even Alice in Wonderland has the other Disney remakes to keep it in the conversation

Nobody 2017 onwards ever talked about the movie. Simple as that.

I remember my friend, who knows how much I love Rey, mentioning how Peep's stance in that image was totally cribbing Daisy's style. I'm a wee bit salty Pixar would try and take something from my girl btw, but imma let it slide

Homecoming came out three years after TASM2, and it did fine.

I'm a bit confused. Why would KOTM have a bigger OW than Aladdin with a much weaker Friday and Saturday. How small of a Sunday drop are you expecting?

You say that, but once I get funding for my movie idea Dinosaur Fighting Xylophone, it's gonna be in the double digits for a whole year.

Buzzfeed reported somebody else was writing up a KOTOR trilogy that wasn't connected with D&D's idea. And yeah, I'd trust Buzzfeed over scooper bros https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kateaurthur/new-star-wars-movie-knights-of-the-old-republic

They're not...making an Old Republic movie?