Eric Prime

The prodigal son has returned.

Great. Another thing I gotta worry about.

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Toy Story 4 1,724 2,015 3,101 3,145 2,762 2,471 5,413 11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days Annabelle 3 66 55 81 53 56 60 65 16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days 11 days 10 days Spider-Man FFH 907 803 1,192 1,064 941 630 1,073 22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days 17 days 16 days Toy Story Day 11-5 66% of Incredibles 2 (120M) 140% of Aladdin (128.6M 3-Day, 164.1M 4-Day) 282% of Shazam! (150.8M) 464% of Lego 2 (158.4M) 325% of Dragon 3 (178.9M) 428% of Dumbo (197M) Day 18-5 64% of Incredibles 2 (117.8M) 135% of Aladdin (124M 3-Day, 158.3M 4-Day) 416% of Lego 2 (141.9M) 281% of Shazam! (150.4M) 334% of Dumbo (153.6M) 284% of Dragon 3 (156.1M) Added in a new set to look at, and it's...interesting. I don't know what the "11-6" comps looked like (I don't really want to either by the by), but those comps do point to an above-average opener...kinda. I said this before, but Incredibles and Aladdin, arguably the strongest comps to use here, have the film opening, fine, albeit just slightly above TS3. But then everything else points to a breakout. I'll probably just wait until tomorrow to see where the dust settles. Annabelle Day 16-10 12% of Us (8.4M 3-Day, 10M first 5 days) 23% of The Nun (12.6M 3-Day, 14.6M first 5 days) 289% of The First Purge (50.2M 3-Day, 90.3M 5-Day) Day 22-10 13% of Us (9.3M 3-Day, 11.1M first 5 days) 33% of The Nun (17.8M 3-Day, 20.6M first 5 days) 340% of The First Purge (59.1M 3-Day, 106.4M 5-Day) Cumulative 260% of The First Purge (45.2M 3-Day, 81.4M 5-Day) All the comps went down, which is still explainable for Us and Nun, since their "Day 10" was a Tuesday. Purge is also coming down to Earth, which is also good, because then we can actually extrapolate something. Far From Home Day 22-16 13% of Infinity War (32.4M 3-Day, 40.6M first 6 days) 46% of Captain Marvel (71.3M 3-Day, 87.2M first 6 days) Day 29-16 12% of Infinity War (31.1M 3-Day, 38.9M first 6 days) 43% of Captain Marvel (65.5M 3-Day, 80.1M first 6 days) Drops, but like Annabelle, it's excused due to Day 16 being a Wednesday for the comps. Not really anything interesting at the moment.

It's been mentioned before, but the main reason people like MIB is Will Smith. No one really cares about the world or lore of Men in Black, so take him out and nobody cares, unless you brought in a new A-lister. That's an issue with a lot of other star-driven vehicles, but when they get repackaged, studios played it smart by getting a huge A-Lister people like to replace the previous A-lister people like. Ocean's 8, Jumanji and Aladdin played it smart because they got a big actor people like to help spark interest and buzz. The only reason I saw these movies was because I like Sandra/Cate/Dwayne/Will, and I wanted to see what they would do with the material. Obviously the bad reviews would still cause the movie to sink, but I think replacing just one of the two leads with an A-lister (RDJ would have probably done wonders in the Hems role) would have helped it garner a bit more money on OW.

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Toy Story 4 1,724 2,015 3,101 3,145 2,762 2,471 11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days Annabelle 3 66 55 81 53 56 60 16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days 11 days Spider-Man FFH 907 803 1,192 1,064 941 598 22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days 17 days Toy Story Day 18-6 66% of Incredibles 2 (121M) 135% of Aladdin (123.9M 3-Day, 158.2M 4-Day) 428% of Lego 2 (146M) 320% of Dumbo (147.2M) 268% of Dragon 3 (147.3M) 276% of Shazam! (147.8M) Day 24-6 259% of Shazam! (138.5M) 82% of Incredibles 2 (149.9M) 302% of Dragon 3 (166M) So I said yesterday, I would have been very confident in TS4 opening super big if it increased on Saturday. That did not happen, but that doesn't mean we should start the doom and gloom party just yet. Just about all of the comps saw an increase, even if slight, and it still held pretty well Friday to Saturday either way. But yeah, it is what it is. The only other thing of note is the division for the first set of comps. Incredibles 2 and Aladdin are arguably the best comps to use with Toy Story (yes, I know about Memorial Day), but they have it in the low 120s. Then you have the remaining comps, which weren't as pre-sales driven and arguably don't work as well as the previous two, and they have it somewhere in the 140s. So this begs the question: Do we go pessimistic and believe the fan-driven, nostalgic Disney properties create a clear path? Or do we go optimistic, and believe in the hyped, but nowhere near as buzzy average openers? Or perhaps do we say rave reviews, no competition, and Mickey's Law will help make the movie soar to these heights? I don't know an exact answer, but it will be something interesting to talk about in the next couple days. Annabelle Day 22-11 15% of Us (10.6M 3-Day, 12.7M first 5 days) 40% of The Nun (21.4M 3-Day, 24.8M first 5 days) 372% of The First Purge (64.7M 3-Day, 116.4M 5-Day) Cumulative 271% of The First Purge (47.1M 3-Day, 84.8M 5-Day) I thought The First Purge would add more clarity, but it ended up making things a bit worse. Purge really only sold a handful of tickets until a couple days before premiere. I guess it's not as fan-driven as one might expect? Anyways, I'm sure some people might be concerned about the drop from both Us and The Nun, but it's important to remember that we're comparing a movie on a Saturday to two movies on a Monday at the same point in time. That's a pretty key difference when it comes to presales and when things get bought and stuff. So yeah, this is a pretty hard film to track at the moment, but hopefully things become more clear in the coming days. Far From Home Day 29-17 13% of Infinity War (33.1M 3-Day, 41.5M first 6 days) 48% of Captain Marvel (73.1M 3-Day, 89.4M first 6 days) Like Annabelle, I'm comparing a movie that is currently on a Saturday with movies that were at a Tuesday at the same point in time. That means something. But it still seems to be going strong, so there's nothing really to worry about at the moment.

Rorschach, you should know better than this.

Deadline says no, but it could change if Pets has a really strong Saturday.

Feel like it should do something like 320M honestly. It's following Maleficent's holds pretty closely, which would be about 342.7M. Just make it a bit more frontloaded, and you'd get something like this.

I should mention that I don't think this is going to be what happens. I'm actually fairly confident in Jungle Cruise this far out and I wouldn't be surprised if either Fast and Furious or Top Gun reaches it. It just seems that there's a strong chance for only those movies to reach that mark, at least this far out. I'm also confident Minions is gonna crash and burn, and Tenet seems destined to be a movie everybody predicts will do huge numbers only to do like 180M or something.

But honestly, if you guys think this summer is trash, just wait until next year. It's not totally crazy to say that Black Widow, Wonder Woman, and the June Pixar movie (if that still exists) might be the only movies that season to even cross 200M.

Can't wait for Dora to save the summer.

Aladdin got a near identical hold with Maleficent on the same weekend. And it could probably (though it's not certain) match next weekend's 35% thanks to Toy Story double features and whatnot. That's also a pretty decent jump for Late Night. I'm hoping to see that movie pretty soon.

BOX OFFICE FOR JUNE 14-16 THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRIDAY 3-DAY TOTAL WK 1 Men In Black: Int.. Sony 4,224 $10.3M $26M $26M 1 2 Secret Life Of Pets 2 Uni/Ill 4,564 (+3) $6.7M (-59%) $23.4M (-50%) $91.6M 2 3 Aladdin Dis 3,556 (-249) $4.7M (-32%) $17.1M (-30%) $263.8M 4 4 Dark Phoenix Dis/Fox 3,721 $2.4M (-83%) $8.2M (-75%) $51M 2 5 Rocketman Par 3,021 (-589) $2.3M (-83%) $7.75M (-44%) $65.1M 3 6 Shaft NL/WB 2,952 $2.7M $7.7M $7.7M 1 7 Godzilla…Monsters WB/Leg 3,207 (-901) $2M (-51%) $7.4M (-52%) $93M 3 8 John Wick 3 LG 2,033 (-743) $1.4M (-26%) $5.6M (-25%) $148.1M 5 9 Late Night Amz 2,218 (+2214) $1.66M (+1737%) $4.7M (+1811%) $4.9M 2 10 Ma Uni/Blum 1,794 (1,022) $1.1M (-51%) $3.8M (-51%) $40.5M 3

"Mommy, the President is drinking my milk."

People don't like that movie? How can they look at Bill Hader as Andy Warhol, and Michael Stuhlbarg as the superior Doctor Strange, and say "nah, this ain't it chief"?

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Toy Story 4 1,724 2,015 3,101 3,145 2,762 11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days Annabelle 3 66 55 81 53 56 16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days Spider-Man FFH 907 803 1,192 1,064 941 22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days Toy Story Day 18-7 66% of Incredibles 2 (120.3M) 133% of Aladdin (121.7M 3-Day, 154.7M 4-Day) 303% of Dumbo (139.2M) 261% of Dragon 3 (143.4M) 273% of Shazam! (146.1M) 430% of Lego 2 (146.8M) Day 24-7 255% of Shazam! (136.4M) 84% of Incredibles 2 (155.4M) 299% of Dragon 3 (164.4M) Another day of consistent increases from all comps. Comps still indicate 150M OW, but things can change if the film's momentum continues. Probably depends on whether there's an increase on Saturday tomorrow. Aladdin had a really strong increase at that point in time, and that was the moment that made me really confident in its financial prospects. At the very least, I have a couple clubs on the line, so this better deliver the next couple days lol Annabelle Day 22-12 18% of Us (13.1M 3-Day, 15.6M first 5 days) 50% of The Nun (26.7M 3-Day, 30.9M first 5 days) So two new things happened. The obvious one is that I managed to go into the akvalley archives and find Nun numbers, arguably the better comp of the two. I might also add in The First Purge tomorrow, because that's probably the best comp to use in the first place. But hey, three is better than one. I'm also gonna test things out a bit and use the first 5 days for regular movies when it comes to comping Wednesday openers. I doubt it's as effective as simple Wednesday openers, but it doesn't hurt to try. Far From Home Day 29-18 14% of Infinity War (35.2M 3-Day, 44.1M first 6 days) 51% of Captain Marvel (78.7M 3-Day, 96.2M first 6 days) I'm doing the same thing with Annabelle. Nothing really interesting here. Slight declines, but really nothing to worry about.

I don't get why people get so confused and angry over people liking or being fans movie studios or distributors, because there are decent reasons to do so. If they have franchises you like, frequently employ certain actors or directors, or just have a certain aesthetic, vibe or style that makes them stick out. Sure, I'd rather people be more supportive over studios like A24 or Blumhouse over Disney or Universal, and studio stans are arguably more annoying than most fandoms here, but I don't really see what's the big deal with people saying "Go Universal!" Using WB as an example, if someone really enjoys DC/Potter/Lego, enjoys directors like Eastwood and Nolan and Affleck, likes quality, big-budget horror (well, big-budget compared to stuff like Plat Dunes and Blumhouse), or just likes the grit some of WB's recent blockbusters possess...why wouldn't they be supportive, or consider themselves "fans" of a studio that gives them stuff they like?

You are clearly underestimating the POWAH of Mickey's Law.

It really says a lot that out of the three tentpoles I've liked so far this summer, only one of them isn't from Disney. Granted I haven't seen KOTM, Phoenix, Pets or MIB yet, but...I doubt I'll end up liking them. Even if you want to make the argument "oh, people need to see small movies instead", which is true, I can't blame audiences sticking with Disney this summer.

If it holds, Dark Phoenix is only behind Friday the 13th 2009 in terms of 2nd weekend drops for a film in more than 3,000 theaters. Even Mortal Engines held better.